Gambling Winnings and Income Taxes for 2020. Taxable.

casino federal income tax

casino federal income tax - win

Detailed DD post [re-post after r/pennystocks removed it]

Detailed DD post [re-post after pennystocks removed it]
I posted this yesterday morning (UK time) but after 5 hours or so, pennystocks deleted the original post. A few people messaged me asking for it to be shared in a few High Tide specific pages. So here it is!
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This is my first time posting a DD post – a friend of mine who moderates on SPACs has shared some analysis I have written previously, but I’m keen to share this here, and see if there is any appetite for sharing my own personal written DD I have on the 30 stocks I have across a number of different portfolios.
I have modified this format, as it was originally a script for a video which I created on the stock. If you prefer to listen – check it out here: https://youtu.be/qsjwU7kkPsw
Some of the market stats (market cap, current multiples, etc.) are correct as of Feb-06, and clearly a little outdated since the price movements.
Not a financial advisor, do your own DD. I am long HITI and have an expectation of a long term hold on this stock.
Overview
  • High Tide Canada-based cannabis retail company, operating under multiple brands. It operates under 3 core divisions:
  1. Brick and mortar retail – 4 key brands with just under 70 locations in Canada. Brands include: Canna Cabana, New Leaf, Meta Cannabis and Kushbar. Forecast to have around 115 stores by end of 2021
  2. Online retail – has 2 brands, both of which attract millions of viewers per month – Grasscity.com and CBDcity.com
  3. Wholesale – manufacturer of paraphernalia in US and Canada. Number of products are branded with various celebrities, Snoop Dogg, Paramount Pictures, Trailer Park Boys and many more
  • Has good c-level execs and experienced executive board; hold significant stake in the business. CEO Raj Grover holds just over 21% of the shares
  • Currently has a market cap of around $280m. Still significant upside to the valuation – see analysis later in post
Investment Merits
Very strong market growth:
  • Business has demonstrated growth both organically (through new store openings, more online sales and greater wholesale sales), as well as inorganically through M&A
  • Growth in markets which High Tide has a physical presence in is expected to be very strong. North American cannabis market (Canada and US) is forecast to grow by 30% a year to 2027 (source: research and markets)
  • Analysts covering High Tide are forecasting growth in excess of this, which is positive to see and implies capturing market share
  • New markets / geographies ‘opening up’, legalizing and regulating cannabis is also an exciting and realistic prospect for incremental growth:
  1. The US federal legalization debate is on the table
  2. Many other countries are considering this too and High Tide is well positioned for these; this is catalyzed by the fact that government debt has increased significantly as part of the response to the COVID-19 health crisis. This needs to be repaid somehow, and increasing tax rates on existing taxes is an unpopular political move. Finding new tax revenues is a more palatable way of increasing tax revenues for governments. This is especially important in countries where elections are upcoming.
  • Personally I do expect to see this accelerate the agenda for the regulation and legalization of cannabis in many new countries
  • Whilst predominantly Canada and US based, High Tide does have presence in some markets where cannabis is not regulated or legalized, the UK for example (~10% of Grasscity sales are made here) and so it is well positioned with a strong and established brand to capitalize on this opportunity, when / if the market ‘opens up’
Regulation
  • High Tide benefits from the regulatory focus and overhang on the cannabis retail sector as it represents a strong barrier to entry, making it more challenging for new competitors to enter market
  • Participants in the market need to have licenses and ensure consistent compliance with laws to continue operating – failure to comply can result in significant financial penalties
  • Personally I normally don’t like investing into retail. There are usually fairly limited barriers to entry, minimal differentiation and negligible customer loyalty, however the cannabis market does have different characteristics in this respect and makes it a more compelling proposition
  • Regulation also benefits those with scale, something High Tide has as the leading player in the market. It costs money to obtain and retain licences to operate and it costs money to ensure compliance with all the laws and regulations and that all staff are acting in accordance with these
  • Some parallels in this respect which can be drawn to casino gaming in casinos; you don’t see new casinos popping up at the same rate which you see new restaurants or apparel stores opening
Demand
  • There’s a lot to like about the demand dynamics for High Tide. It’s vice-nature means that demand is less correlated to disposable incomes. Given where we are in economic cycle, especially important consideration
  • For those doubting this, check alcohol, tobacco or gambling expenditure across economic cycles historically, for a proxy
Strong performance throughout COVID-19 crisis
  • Despite heavy weighting towards brick and mortar, (the most hard hit part of retail) it has effectively managed the shift to online, which is a positive
  • Has relied on government support and financial assistance in the form of job retention schemes (address in more detail later in post)
  • This demonstrates management are capable and have effectively navigated the challenging situation
Data
  • Massively summarized from the video, (and my video on KERN) so check that out if interested in this point, however, they have unique access to supply chain data which could be monetized effectively and generate strong levels of recurring revenues
  • Other established sectors have a trusted party with such unique access to data (e.g. alcohol, lithium, different foods, etc.) and the opportunity here is enormous
  • I would like to see High Tide capitalize on this
Forecasts financials & analysts
  • Currently 2 analysts covering High Tide, both have a buy rating on the business
  • Their coverage is slightly outdated (expect this being updated soon and a further catalyst for positive price action) and their price targets are 60c; at the time their reports were published, they were forecasting a 4x upside (HITI was trading at ~15c)
  • Same analysts also forecasting strong growth - 77% CAGR to 2022. They are forecasting revenues of around $250m and EBITDA of $46m. A reminder here, these are professional analysts, not YouTube students – these come from their financial models, the assumptions of which are discussed with management
https://preview.redd.it/nfq8h5fpvmg61.png?width=602&format=png&auto=webp&s=f48977ca9c0072003ac71206cef28b0a493dd583
Valuation
  • Going to go quick here, its explained more slowly in the video but High Tide is currently valued at a significant discount to the other listed peers
  • Looking at EV / FY+1 Sales multiples – EBITDA not meaningful as some of the peer group are EBITDA negative and High Tide itself has only recently become EBITDA positive

https://preview.redd.it/4t4n303rvmg61.png?width=342&format=png&auto=webp&s=636bca248743272bed283af97780d3e1e121312f
  • Personally, I think Planet13 is the most comparable given its business model
  • Taking both Planet13 multiple and peer group average multiple, this is then applied to High Tide’s forecast FY+1 sales to calculate an enterprise value – this is adjusted for net debt to get to a market capitalization and then divided by the share count to get an implied share price
  • The table below shows the implied stock price valuations from this analysis

https://preview.redd.it/1mks0oxrvmg61.png?width=406&format=png&auto=webp&s=587ca8e2468b825103905931ebe7ab5b42314c6f
NB – assumed the following:
  1. Net debt will change in coming year given the capital structure and a large number of convertible notes – this has been ignored given it will have small impact on the price
  2. The share count will change as a result of dilution from various instruments – if this bothers you massively then look at the valuation discount on the basis of the enterprise value as it does not impact this (and only slightly on the market cap given minimal impacts to cash from instrument execution, etc.)
  3. Not accounting for any stock split, consolidation or any other M&A deals
  4. The FY21 financials are on the basis of the mean broker estimates from Thomson Reuters – Seeking Alpha has different and slightly outdated ones
Investment Risks & Mitigants / Outstanding DD points
Exposure to changing regulation
  • US is only a small part of the market which High Tide addresses, while a change in regulation would have a big impact on the company, currently it is unlikely this would happen, given the discussions about potential federal legalization
  • Canada regulation is established and not going anywhere
  • Other countries likely to legalize and regulate cannabis, as outlined earlier
Dilution
  • No escaping that there will be some significant dilution for shareholders, as pointed out in the table below, but this should be already priced into the stock
  • Potential that new equity issuances could occur to help finance growth, but provided this growth is delivered, it should be accretive for the stock price

https://preview.redd.it/vkrb2ousvmg61.png?width=602&format=png&auto=webp&s=40f8f4c65b92efc15af0eba42bb873c774700eff
Potentially misleading cost basis information
  • A risk that investors need to be aware with for all companies which have relied on government financial support during COVID-19 measures. Such support has resulted in the number of businesses going bankrupt decreasing massively – this is at a lower level than it ever normally is and is masking some real underlying issues within companies. As investors we need to be open eyed about this
  • As High Tide has benefited from support in the form of the Canada’s Emergency Wage Support scheme, there is the risk that once this is lifted it may become apparent that the cost base has not been effectively managed
  • Personally, I think this is mitigated by the synergy analysis conducted as part of the M&A. A full cost base analysis would have been conducted to calculate the potential $8.4m synergies so strong likelihood that this is under control, but should keep on our radar and reassess
Marketing expenses and celebrity licenses
  • Need more information to ascertain whether these are underpinned by a compelling ROI. Seen a lot of people suggest this is a great positive, but the impact on sales volumes from these is unknown, as is the terms of these license agreements (e.g. split between upfront fee vs. volume-based fee)
  • No escaping the fact that it is an increased cost and so need to understand the ROI this generates to determine whether it really is compelling
  • Is there really more demand to pay a premium for Snoop Dogg bongs, Guns n Roses papers, Cheech & Chong grinders, or whatever they may be?
  • So far management have suggested this has been helpful in driving new sales, but this is something to dig into more
If you want to check out the video, it would be appreciated: https://youtu.be/qsjwU7kkPsw
submitted by AlexM-YT to HITIFSTOCK [link] [comments]

Lost in the Sauce: Trump, Cruz, and Gohmert team up to incite election-related violence

Welcome to Lost in the Sauce, keeping you caught up on political and legal news that often gets buried in distractions and theater… or a global health crisis.
Housekeeping:

Election shenanigans

I put the latest info on Trump's phone call to Raffensperger in this comment.
According to experts, Trump’s conduct has potential criminal exposure:
A federal statute makes it a crime when one “knowingly and willfully … attempts to deprive or defraud the residents of a State of a fair and impartially conducted election process, by … the procurement, casting, or tabulation of ballots that are known by the person to be materially false, fictitious, or fraudulent under the laws of the State in which the election is held.”
A Georgia statute similarly provides that a “person commits the offense of criminal solicitation to commit election fraud in the first degree when, with intent that another person engage in conduct constituting a felony under this article, he or she solicits, requests, commands, importunes, or otherwise attempts to cause the other person to engage in such conduct.”
…The hard part for prosecutors would be proving Trump’s state of mind, because the statutes require proof of knowledge and intent. Prosecutors would have to show that Trump knew that Biden fairly won the election, and Trump was asking for Georgia officials to commit election fraud. And it’s not clear prosecutors could make that case.
At least 12 Republican senators plan to challenge Biden’s Electoral College win on Jan. 6, when Congress is set to officially count the votes. The effort is being led by Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.) and includes Sens. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), James Lankford (R-Okla.), Steve Daines (R-Mont.), John Kennedy (R-La.), Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.), and Mike Braun (R-Ind.), as well as new Senators Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.), Roger Marshall (R-Kan.), Bill Hagerty (R-Tenn.), and Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.). Separately, Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Missouri) is pursuing a similar plan.
"Congress should immediately appoint an Electoral Commission, with full investigatory and fact-finding authority, to conduct an emergency 10-day audit of the election returns in the disputed states. Once completed, individual states would evaluate the Commission’s findings and could convene a special legislative session to certify a change in their vote, if needed," the senators said in a joint statement. “Accordingly, we intend to vote on Jan. 6 to reject the electors from disputed states as not ‘regularly given’ and ‘lawfully certified’ (the statutory requisite), unless and until that emergency 10-day audit is completed."
Their plan is not going to succeed in preventing Biden from taking office, as majorities in both the House and the Senate would need to support a challenge against a state’s electoral votes. For an objection to be made, at least one member of both the House and Senate would need to submit it in writing. Then, the House and Senate separately convene to consider the issue. Debate is limited to two hours for each objection. After debate concludes, the House and Senate vote to uphold the objection and throw out the state’s votes. If the majority of the House AND the majority of the Senate does not uphold the objection, the state’s electoral votes are counted as cast.
  • Vice President Mike Pence’s role is simply to preside over the joint session, opening and presenting the certifications from each state. In his absence, the Senate pro-tempore Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) will lead the session. At the end of the process, the presiding officer announces who has won the majority of votes for president and vice president.
The most immediate danger from Trump and Cruz’s doomed election gambit is rightwing terrorism and general violence: Trump, in particular, is inciting his supporters to swarm D.C. on Jan. 6. “JANUARY SIXTH, SEE YOU IN DC!” Trump tweeted last week. Four rightwing rallies are scheduled, including one headlined by George Papadopoulos and Roger Stone.
The Proud Boys and other extremists are planning to attend the rallies and may set up an “armed encampment” on the National Mall, according to the Washington Post. On social media platform Parler, the leader of the Proud Boys said that members will be there “incognito” and may “dress in all black” to impersonate leftwing protestors.
Enrique Tarrio: "The ProudBoys will turn out in record numbers on Jan 6th but this time with a twist...We will not be wearing our traditional Black and Yellow. We will be incognito and we will spread across downtown DC in smaller teams."
Rep. Louie Gohmert has more explicitly tried to incite violence, saying the failure of his legal challenge to the election means “you gotta go the streets and be as violent as Antifa and BLM.” (clip)
  • At the same time, pro-Trump lawyer Lin Wood suggested that Pence could “face execution by firing squad” for “treason” if he doesn’t go along with the attempt to subvert the election.

Obstructing the transition

Biden’s transition director has accused the Office of Management and Budget of stonewalling the incoming administration’s team. OMB Director Russ Vought is not allowing key staff to meet with the transition team to help prepare the president-elect’s first annual spending plan, a move that could delay major proposals. Vought pushed back on the charges, saying that his agency needs to focus on finalizing the Trump administration’s regulations before the president leaves office.
“OMB leadership’s refusal to fully cooperate impairs our ability to identify opportunities to maximize the relief going out to Americans during the pandemic, and it leaves us in the dark as it relates to Covid-related expenditures and critical gaps,” [Biden transition Exec. Dir. Yohannes] Abraham said.
Earlier last week, Biden himself said Trump officials are not cooperating with his team, singling out the Defense Department for obstructing information on crucial national security issues. “Right now, we just aren’t getting all the information that we need from the outgoing administration in key national security areas. It’s nothing short, in my view, of irresponsibility,” Biden said. The Defense Dept. finally scheduled meetings with the incoming team this week, after not briefing the transition for weeks.
  • The timing of the resumption in meetings is notable because it comes after the one year anniversary of the U.S. assassination of Iranian Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani on Jan. 3. NATO officials are reportedly worried about the lack of coordination from the Trump administration: "We need the incoming Biden administration to be fully briefed and ready to deal with these very dangerous issues facing NATO's security."

Sabotaging the Biden Administration

U.S. Agency for Global Media CEO Michael Pack is taking steps to keep control of Radio Free Europe and Radio Free Asia during the Biden administration. As chairman of the boards of Radio Free Europe and Asia, Pack and his fellow members have added binding contractual agreements that will make it impossible to remove him or other pro-Trump allies from the board in the next two years.
In other words, although President-elect Joe Biden has already signaled he intends to replace Pack as CEO of the parent agency soon after taking office in January, Pack would maintain a significant degree of control over the networks.
The State Department is likely to designate Cuba as a state sponsor of terrorism “as an 11th hour effort to create hurdles for the incoming Biden administration.” The label, which requires the approval of Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, would undo a major accomplishment of the Obama administration. To take Cuba back off the list, the Biden team would need to conduct a formal review, a process that might take several months.
Such a designation would impose restrictions on US foreign assistance, a ban on defense exports and sales, certain controls over exports and various financial restrictions. It would also result in penalization against any persons and countries engaging in certain trade activities with Cuba.
The Trump administration has been rushing to finalize a myriad of rules before Biden’s inauguration. Since Election Day, the Trump administration has issued about three to four times as many new regulations as it did during other periods of Trump’s presidency. Rules that haven’t been finalized or taken effect can be suspended by an incoming president, which Biden has said he intends to do. By contrast, rules that are finalized can take months, or even years, to undo.
“As a general rule, it takes at least as much process to undo or modify a rule as it does to put the rule in place,” said Jonathan H. Adler, a professor and an administrative law expert at Case Western Reserve University School of Law. “The Trump administration is magnifying that challenge for the Biden administration.”
Trump loyalists are urging the president to stymie Biden’s efforts to rejoin the Paris climate agreement and the Iran nuclear deal. Sens. Ted Cruz and Lindsey Graham are working to get the agreements submitted to the Senate for ratification, requiring a two-thirds vote, with the goal of failure. While such an outcome wouldn’t prevent Biden from rejoining the accords, Cruz and Graham hope it would make their resurrection more problematic.
A vote against them would signal GOP opposition to the world and, they hope, undermine any unilateral action by Biden to rejoin the agreements. One senior congressional aide told RCP that sending them to die in the Senate “would be the final nail in the coffin.”
Further reading: “Biden To Be Saddled With Trump’s Payroll Tax Deferral Mess,” Forbes.
Further reading: Biden will inherit a backlog of tens of thousands of visa requests from the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan — and a bureaucratic tangle that refugee advocates say President Trump ignored or made worse.

Trump money and properties

Manhattan District Attorney Cyrus Vance is employing forensic accounting specialists to examine Trump’s finances and business operations. Vance is looking “for anomalies among a variety of property deals” and trying to determine “whether the president’s company manipulated the value of certain assets to obtain favorable interest rates and tax breaks”.
The analysts hired by Vance probably have already reviewed various bank and mortgage records obtained from Trump’s company as part of the ongoing grand jury investigation, and they could be called on to testify about their findings should the district attorney eventually bring criminal charges
In yet another shady business deal connected to Trump, the United States sold the ambassador’s residence in Israel for more than $67 million. The person who bought the residence is none other than Trump mega-donor Sheldon Adelson. The property only became available due to Trump's controversial decision to relocate the U.S. Embassy from Tel Aviv to contested Jerusalem. Furthermore, State Dept. representatives reportedly lied to Congress about the sale, perhaps to hide that Adelson purposefully overbid.
For now, there is no alternative residence for the ambassador, David Friedman, Trump’s former lawyer, who currently uses a suite at Jerusalem’s King David Hotel or rooms at the former Jerusalem Consulate General when he spends nights in Jerusalem… As a result, the United States appears likely to end up leasing the residence it has owned since 1964 from the GOP-affiliated casino mogul.
“It is very strange that we are now paying Sheldon Adelson,” a congressional aide told The Daily Beast. “It is not above board. We have a number of questions. Did they get two independent appraisals? Was it a sweetheart deal? Was Adelson the highest donor? Was there a reason to sell it now?”
Trump’s businesses have taken in $10.5 million of donor money over the course of his presidency. $8.5 million came from the Trump campaign and related entities that Trump controls directly; $2 million came from other Republican candidates and committees. The biggest beneficiary was Trump’s NYC hotel, taking in $3,039,979 over the four years of his presidency, with $891,003 of that in just the final four months of the campaign.
Trump’s DC hotel is ramping up room prices and requiring a two-night minimum stay for two key events this month, as the president tries to squeeze more profit out of his office. On Jan. 6, when Congress is set to formally count the votes cast by the Electoral College, room rates are listed at over eight times the price of surrounding dates. Trump is encouraging his supporters to attend a protest of Biden’s win on the 6th. A room during the inauguration costs five times the normal rate, at $2,225 per night.
Trump’s Turnberry Resort in Scotland posted a £2.3 million ($3.1 million) loss in 2019, marking the sixth year in a row it has failed to turn a profit under his ownership. Since Trump took over the historic property in 2014, its losses now total nearly £45 million ($61.5 million).
The fact Turnberry remains in the red comes in spite of significant tranches of payments it has received from the US government during Mr Trump’s single term in office… the US Secret Service spent nearly £25,000 to accommodate its agents at the resort during business trips by Mr Trump’s son, Eric, an executive vice-president of the family firm. Since Mr Trump’s election, the property has received close to £300,000 from the Secret Service, US State Department, and US Defence Department
A Florida state lawmaker is calling for Mar-a-Lago to be penalized - and possibly shut down - for flouting coronavirus restrictions during a New Years Eve party. While Trump and the first lady did not attend, son Don Jr., attorney Rudy Giuliani, Rep. Matt Gaetz, and Fox News personality Jeanine Piro were captured on video among the maskless crowd. Guests paid as much as $1,000 for access to the ballroom to be entertained by Vanilla Ice.
State Rep. Omari Hardy: “My constituents are not snowbirds like @DonaldJTrumpJr & @kimguilfoyle. My constituents live here. This is their home, and they're going to have to deal w/ the consequences of a potential super-spreader party at Mar-a-Lago long after Junior & wife leave here on their private jet.”
Are you ready for a Donald J. Trump Airport? According to the Daily Beast, Trump has been asking aides about the process of naming airports after former U.S. presidents.
Further reading: “Jared Kushner’s family real estate business wants to raise at least $100 million in capital through Israel’s bond market… Kushner has helped spearhead a series of moves that have been applauded by the conservative pro-Israel community, including moving the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem from Tel Aviv and recognizing Israeli sovereignty in disputed areas such as the Golan Heights. Kushner also has close ties to Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu.”

Miscellaneous

The Census Bureau missed it’s end-of-year deadline to produce numbers that determine representation in Congress and the Electoral College for the next decade. The agency is working toward Jan. 9 as an internal target date for completing the current stage of processing records. "If we miss Jan. 9, it's hard to envision that we would get apportionment done before inauguration," a Census employee told NPR.
The final timing of the 2020 census results' release could undermine President Trump's efforts to make an unprecedented change to who is counted in key census numbers before leaving office… If the first census results are not ready until after Trump's term ends on Jan. 20, it would be President-elect Joe Biden, not Trump, who would get control of the numbers, which are ultimately handed off to Congress for certification.
submitted by rusticgorilla to Keep_Track [link] [comments]

Not just another HITI / HITIF post... Serious DD incl. valuation analysis

Not just another HITI / HITIF post... Serious DD incl. valuation analysis
Reposting this DD after it was removed by mods first time around. Potential offending points have been removed.
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Some of the market stats are a little outdated (market cap, current multiples, etc.) but are correct as of Feb-06. This was originally written for another purpose.
Not a financial advisor, do your own DD. I am long HITI and have an expectation of a long term hold on this stock.
Overview
  • High Tide Canada-based cannabis retail company, operating under multiple brands. It operates under 3 core divisions:
  1. Brick and mortar retail – 4 key brands with just under 70 locations in Canada. Brands include: Canna Cabana, New Leaf, Meta Cannabis and Kushbar. Forecast to have around 115 stores by end of 2021
  2. Online retail – has 2 brands, both of which attract millions of viewers per month – Grasscity.com and CBDcity.com
  3. Wholesale – manufacturer of paraphernalia in US and Canada. Number of products are branded with various celebrities, Snoop Dogg, Paramount Pictures, Trailer Park Boys and many more
  • Has good c-level execs and experienced executive board; hold significant stake in the business. CEO Raj Grover holds just over 21% of the shares
  • Currently has a market cap of around $280m. Still significant upside to the valuation – see analysis later in post
Investment Merits
Very strong market growth:
  • Business has demonstrated growth both organically (through new store openings, more online sales and greater wholesale sales), as well as inorganically through M&A
  • Growth in markets which High Tide has a physical presence in is expected to be very strong. North American cannabis market (Canada and US) is forecast to grow by 30% a year to 2027 (source: research and markets)
  • Analysts covering High Tide are forecasting growth in excess of this, which is positive to see and implies capturing market share
  • New markets / geographies ‘opening up’, legalizing and regulating cannabis is also an exciting and realistic prospect for incremental growth:
  1. The US federal legalization debate is on the table
  2. Many other countries are considering this too and High Tide is well positioned for these; this is catalyzed by the fact that government debt has increased significantly as part of the response to the COVID-19 health crisis. This needs to be repaid somehow, and increasing tax rates on existing taxes is an unpopular political move. Finding new tax revenues is a more palatable way of increasing tax revenues for governments. This is especially important in countries where elections are upcoming.
  • Personally I do expect to see this accelerate the agenda for the regulation and legalization of cannabis in many new countries
  • Whilst predominantly Canada and US based, High Tide does have presence in some markets where cannabis is not regulated or legalized, the UK for example (~10% of Grasscity sales are made here) and so it is well positioned with a strong and established brand to capitalize on this opportunity, when / if the market ‘opens up’
Regulation
  • High Tide benefits from the regulatory focus and overhang on the cannabis retail sector as it represents a strong barrier to entry, making it more challenging for new competitors to enter market
  • Participants in the market need to have licenses and ensure consistent compliance with laws to continue operating – failure to comply can result in significant financial penalties
  • Personally I normally don’t like investing into retail. There are usually fairly limited barriers to entry, minimal differentiation and negligible customer loyalty, however the cannabis market does have different characteristics in this respect and makes it a more compelling proposition
  • Regulation also benefits those with scale, something High Tide has as the leading player in the market. It costs money to obtain and retain licences to operate and it costs money to ensure compliance with all the laws and regulations and that all staff are acting in accordance with these
  • Some parallels in this respect which can be drawn to casino gaming in casinos; you don’t see new casinos popping up at the same rate which you see new restaurants or apparel stores opening
Demand
  • There’s a lot to like about the demand dynamics for High Tide. It’s vice-nature means that demand is less correlated to disposable incomes. Given where we are in economic cycle, especially important consideration
  • For those doubting this, check alcohol, tobacco or gambling expenditure across economic cycles historically, for a proxy
Strong performance throughout COVID-19 crisis
  • Despite heavy weighting towards brick and mortar, (the most hard hit part of retail) it has effectively managed the shift to online, which is a positive
  • Has relied on government support and financial assistance in the form of job retention schemes (address in more detail later in post)
  • This demonstrates management are capable and have effectively navigated the challenging situation
Data
  • Massively summarized from the other purpose, however, they have unique access to supply chain data which could be monetized effectively and generate strong levels of recurring revenues
  • Other established sectors have a trusted party with such unique access to data (e.g. alcohol, lithium, different foods, etc.) and the opportunity here is enormous
  • I would like to see High Tide capitalize on this
Forecasts financials & analysts
  • Currently 2 analysts covering High Tide, both have a buy rating on the business
  • Their coverage is slightly outdated (expect this being updated soon and a further catalyst for positive price action) and their price targets are 60c; at the time their reports were published, they were forecasting a 4x upside (HITI was trading at ~15c)
  • Same analysts also forecasting strong growth - 77% CAGR to 2022. They are forecasting revenues of around $250m and EBITDA of $46m. A reminder here, these are professional analysts, not YouTube students – these come from their financial models, the assumptions of which are discussed with management
https://preview.redd.it/csw4p0vpoxg61.png?width=602&format=png&auto=webp&s=143ac8f94e6fcd4df3d50d41f513da45367f28f1
Valuation
  • Going to go quick here, however, High Tide is currently valued at a significant discount to the other listed peers
  • Looking at EV / FY+1 Sales multiples – EBITDA not meaningful as some of the peer group are EBITDA negative and High Tide itself has only recently become EBITDA positive
https://preview.redd.it/zo0vr7vqoxg61.png?width=262&format=png&auto=webp&s=686be7e82e3fbfb3d7021823ed84f2cf795b49d2
  • Personally, I think Planet13 is the most comparable given its business model
  • Taking both Planet13 multiple and peer group average multiple, this is then applied to High Tide’s forecast FY+1 sales to calculate an enterprise value – this is adjusted for net debt to get to a market capitalization and then divided by the share count to get an implied share price
  • The table below shows the implied stock price valuations from this analysis
https://preview.redd.it/qp6qea1soxg61.png?width=277&format=png&auto=webp&s=3333aa9ea7213961a44bc37e4292bad316872b48
NB – assumed the following:
  1. Net debt will change in coming year given the capital structure and a large number of convertible notes – this has been ignored given it will have small impact on the price
  2. The share count will change as a result of dilution from various instruments – if this bothers you massively then look at the valuation discount on the basis of the enterprise value as it does not impact this (and only slightly on the market cap given minimal impacts to cash from instrument execution, etc.)
  3. Not accounting for any stock split, consolidation or any other M&A deals
  4. The FY21 financials are on the basis of the mean broker estimates from Thomson Reuters – Seeking Alpha has different and slightly outdated ones
Investment Risks & Mitigants / Outstanding DD points
Exposure to changing regulation
  • US is only a small part of the market which High Tide addresses, while a change in regulation would have a big impact on the company, currently it is unlikely this would happen, given the discussions about potential federal legalization
  • Canada regulation is established and not going anywhere
  • Other countries likely to legalize and regulate cannabis, as outlined earlier
Dilution
  • No escaping that there will be some significant dilution for shareholders, as pointed out in the table below, but this should be already priced into the stock
  • Potential that new equity issuances could occur to help finance growth, but provided this growth is delivered, it should be accretive for the stock price
https://preview.redd.it/aaslgozsoxg61.png?width=463&format=png&auto=webp&s=767bffe9d6906bf21340aecd884cfad5ec7219c4
Potentially misleading cost basis information
  • A risk that investors need to be aware with for all companies which have relied on government financial support during COVID-19 measures. Such support has resulted in the number of businesses going bankrupt decreasing massively – this is at a lower level than it ever normally is and is masking some real underlying issues within companies. As investors we need to be open eyed about this
  • As High Tide has benefited from support in the form of the Canada’s Emergency Wage Support scheme, there is the risk that once this is lifted it may become apparent that the cost base has not been effectively managed
  • Personally, I think this is mitigated by the synergy analysis conducted as part of the M&A. A full cost base analysis would have been conducted to calculate the potential $8.4m synergies so strong likelihood that this is under control, but should keep on our radar and reassess
Marketing expenses and celebrity licenses
  • Need more information to ascertain whether these are underpinned by a compelling ROI. Seen a lot of people suggest this is a great positive, but the impact on sales volumes from these is unknown, as is the terms of these license agreements (e.g. split between upfront fee vs. volume-based fee)
  • No escaping the fact that it is an increased cost and so need to understand the ROI this generates to determine whether it really is compelling
  • Is there really more demand to pay a premium for Snoop Dogg bongs, Guns n Roses papers, Cheech & Chong grinders, or whatever they may be?
  • So far management have suggested this has been helpful in driving new sales, but this is something to dig into more
    TLDR
Despite the recent rally in stock price, the business remains undervalued on a relative basis versus its peers (analysis in body of post). There is a compelling investment case for High Tide where in my opinion the merits of the investment outweigh the risks. Clearly given the small cap nature of the stock, this is inherently more volatile than larger blue chip stocks and carries with it a degree of risk.
submitted by AlexM-YT to pennystocks [link] [comments]

Detailed DD post [re-post after r/pennystocks deleted it]

Detailed DD post [re-post after pennystocks deleted it]
I posted this yesterday morning (UK time) but after 5 hours or so, pennystocks deleted the original post. A few people messaged me asking for it to be shared in a few High Tide specific pages. So here it is! Hope this is OK for the mods here?
--
This is my first time posting a DD post – a friend of mine who moderates on SPACs has shared some analysis I have written previously, but I’m keen to share this here, and see if there is any appetite for sharing my own personal written DD I have on the 30 stocks I have across a number of different portfolios.
I have modified this format, as it was originally a script for a video which I created on the stock. If you prefer to listen – check it out here: https://youtu.be/qsjwU7kkPsw
Some of the market stats (market cap, current multiples, etc.) are correct as of Feb-06, and clearly a little outdated since the price movements.
Not a financial advisor, do your own DD. I am long HITI and have an expectation of a long term hold on this stock.
Overview
  • High Tide Canada-based cannabis retail company, operating under multiple brands. It operates under 3 core divisions:
  1. Brick and mortar retail – 4 key brands with just under 70 locations in Canada. Brands include: Canna Cabana, New Leaf, Meta Cannabis and Kushbar. Forecast to have around 115 stores by end of 2021
  2. Online retail – has 2 brands, both of which attract millions of viewers per month – Grasscity.com and CBDcity.com
  3. Wholesale – manufacturer of paraphernalia in US and Canada. Number of products are branded with various celebrities, Snoop Dogg, Paramount Pictures, Trailer Park Boys and many more
  • Has good c-level execs and experienced executive board; hold significant stake in the business. CEO Raj Grover holds just over 21% of the shares
  • Currently has a market cap of around $280m. Still significant upside to the valuation – see analysis later in post
Investment Merits
Very strong market growth:
  • Business has demonstrated growth both organically (through new store openings, more online sales and greater wholesale sales), as well as inorganically through M&A
  • Growth in markets which High Tide has a physical presence in is expected to be very strong. North American cannabis market (Canada and US) is forecast to grow by 30% a year to 2027 (source: research and markets)
  • Analysts covering High Tide are forecasting growth in excess of this, which is positive to see and implies capturing market share
  • New markets / geographies ‘opening up’, legalizing and regulating cannabis is also an exciting and realistic prospect for incremental growth:
  1. The US federal legalization debate is on the table
  2. Many other countries are considering this too and High Tide is well positioned for these; this is catalyzed by the fact that government debt has increased significantly as part of the response to the COVID-19 health crisis. This needs to be repaid somehow, and increasing tax rates on existing taxes is an unpopular political move. Finding new tax revenues is a more palatable way of increasing tax revenues for governments. This is especially important in countries where elections are upcoming.
  • Personally I do expect to see this accelerate the agenda for the regulation and legalization of cannabis in many new countries
  • Whilst predominantly Canada and US based, High Tide does have presence in some markets where cannabis is not regulated or legalized, the UK for example (~10% of Grasscity sales are made here) and so it is well positioned with a strong and established brand to capitalize on this opportunity, when / if the market ‘opens up’
Regulation
  • High Tide benefits from the regulatory focus and overhang on the cannabis retail sector as it represents a strong barrier to entry, making it more challenging for new competitors to enter market
  • Participants in the market need to have licenses and ensure consistent compliance with laws to continue operating – failure to comply can result in significant financial penalties
  • Personally I normally don’t like investing into retail. There are usually fairly limited barriers to entry, minimal differentiation and negligible customer loyalty, however the cannabis market does have different characteristics in this respect and makes it a more compelling proposition
  • Regulation also benefits those with scale, something High Tide has as the leading player in the market. It costs money to obtain and retain licences to operate and it costs money to ensure compliance with all the laws and regulations and that all staff are acting in accordance with these
  • Some parallels in this respect which can be drawn to casino gaming in casinos; you don’t see new casinos popping up at the same rate which you see new restaurants or apparel stores opening
Demand
  • There’s a lot to like about the demand dynamics for High Tide. It’s vice-nature means that demand is less correlated to disposable incomes. Given where we are in economic cycle, especially important consideration
  • For those doubting this, check alcohol, tobacco or gambling expenditure across economic cycles historically, for a proxy
Strong performance throughout COVID-19 crisis
  • Despite heavy weighting towards brick and mortar, (the most hard hit part of retail) it has effectively managed the shift to online, which is a positive
  • Has relied on government support and financial assistance in the form of job retention schemes (address in more detail later in post)
  • This demonstrates management are capable and have effectively navigated the challenging situation
Data
  • Massively summarized from the video, (and my video on KERN) so check that out if interested in this point, however, they have unique access to supply chain data which could be monetized effectively and generate strong levels of recurring revenues
  • Other established sectors have a trusted party with such unique access to data (e.g. alcohol, lithium, different foods, etc.) and the opportunity here is enormous
  • I would like to see High Tide capitalize on this
Forecasts financials & analysts
  • Currently 2 analysts covering High Tide, both have a buy rating on the business
  • Their coverage is slightly outdated (expect this being updated soon and a further catalyst for positive price action) and their price targets are 60c; at the time their reports were published, they were forecasting a 4x upside (HITI was trading at ~15c)
  • Same analysts also forecasting strong growth - 77% CAGR to 2022. They are forecasting revenues of around $250m and EBITDA of $46m. A reminder here, these are professional analysts, not YouTube students – these come from their financial models, the assumptions of which are discussed with management

https://preview.redd.it/5pwznbe5xmg61.png?width=602&format=png&auto=webp&s=bb1be853d9db5eaa7dc3c7b26630a173bbd064cf
Valuation
  • Going to go quick here, its explained more slowly in the video but High Tide is currently valued at a significant discount to the other listed peers
  • Looking at EV / FY+1 Sales multiples – EBITDA not meaningful as some of the peer group are EBITDA negative and High Tide itself has only recently become EBITDA positive

https://preview.redd.it/l52oajp6xmg61.png?width=342&format=png&auto=webp&s=e31e1944101c6488a24f470bc3b91744f4c2dccf
  • Personally, I think Planet13 is the most comparable given its business model
  • Taking both Planet13 multiple and peer group average multiple, this is then applied to High Tide’s forecast FY+1 sales to calculate an enterprise value – this is adjusted for net debt to get to a market capitalization and then divided by the share count to get an implied share price
  • The table below shows the implied stock price valuations from this analysis

https://preview.redd.it/2j51fwigxmg61.png?width=406&format=png&auto=webp&s=f678c5c66ced846ac45fa698c7e454f71a4232b6
NB – assumed the following:
  1. Net debt will change in coming year given the capital structure and a large number of convertible notes – this has been ignored given it will have small impact on the price
  2. The share count will change as a result of dilution from various instruments – if this bothers you massively then look at the valuation discount on the basis of the enterprise value as it does not impact this (and only slightly on the market cap given minimal impacts to cash from instrument execution, etc.)
  3. Not accounting for any stock split, consolidation or any other M&A deals
  4. The FY21 financials are on the basis of the mean broker estimates from Thomson Reuters – Seeking Alpha has different and slightly outdated ones
Investment Risks & Mitigants / Outstanding DD points
Exposure to changing regulation
  • US is only a small part of the market which High Tide addresses, while a change in regulation would have a big impact on the company, currently it is unlikely this would happen, given the discussions about potential federal legalization
  • Canada regulation is established and not going anywhere
  • Other countries likely to legalize and regulate cannabis, as outlined earlier
Dilution
  • No escaping that there will be some significant dilution for shareholders, as pointed out in the table below, but this should be already priced into the stock
  • Potential that new equity issuances could occur to help finance growth, but provided this growth is delivered, it should be accretive for the stock price

https://preview.redd.it/t0im6idhxmg61.png?width=602&format=png&auto=webp&s=4bff366e68eeeadd5ac49ab5d97885685a327a6b
Potentially misleading cost basis information
  • A risk that investors need to be aware with for all companies which have relied on government financial support during COVID-19 measures. Such support has resulted in the number of businesses going bankrupt decreasing massively – this is at a lower level than it ever normally is and is masking some real underlying issues within companies. As investors we need to be open eyed about this
  • As High Tide has benefited from support in the form of the Canada’s Emergency Wage Support scheme, there is the risk that once this is lifted it may become apparent that the cost base has not been effectively managed
  • Personally, I think this is mitigated by the synergy analysis conducted as part of the M&A. A full cost base analysis would have been conducted to calculate the potential $8.4m synergies so strong likelihood that this is under control, but should keep on our radar and reassess
Marketing expenses and celebrity licenses
  • Need more information to ascertain whether these are underpinned by a compelling ROI. Seen a lot of people suggest this is a great positive, but the impact on sales volumes from these is unknown, as is the terms of these license agreements (e.g. split between upfront fee vs. volume-based fee)
  • No escaping the fact that it is an increased cost and so need to understand the ROI this generates to determine whether it really is compelling
  • Is there really more demand to pay a premium for Snoop Dogg bongs, Guns n Roses papers, Cheech & Chong grinders, or whatever they may be?
  • So far management have suggested this has been helpful in driving new sales, but this is something to dig into more
If you want to check out the video, it would be appreciated: https://youtu.be/qsjwU7kkPsw
submitted by AlexM-YT to HighTideInc [link] [comments]

Not another HITI / HITIF DD post... detailed analysis incl. valuation [re-post after it was deleted on r/pennystocks for some reason...]

I posted this yesterday morning (UK time) but after 5 hours or so, pennystocks deleted the original post. I had a message to share it on here too, so here it is!
--
This is my first time posting a DD post – a friend of mine who moderates on SPACs has shared some analysis I have written previously, but I’m keen to share this here, and see if there is any appetite for sharing my own personal written DD I have on the 30 stocks I have across a number of different portfolios.
I have modified this format, as it was originally a script for a video which I created on the stock. If you prefer to listen – check it out here: https://youtu.be/qsjwU7kkPsw
Some of the market stats (market cap, current multiples, etc.) are correct as of Feb-06, and clearly a little outdated since the price movements.
Not a financial advisor, do your own DD. I am long HITI and have an expectation of a long term hold on this stock.
Overview
  1. Brick and mortar retail – 4 key brands with just under 70 locations in Canada. Brands include: Canna Cabana, New Leaf, Meta Cannabis and Kushbar. Forecast to have around 115 stores by end of 2021
  2. Online retail – has 2 brands, both of which attract millions of viewers per month – Grasscity.com and CBDcity.com
  3. Wholesale – manufacturer of paraphernalia in US and Canada. Number of products are branded with various celebrities, Snoop Dogg, Paramount Pictures, Trailer Park Boys and many more
Investment Merits
Very strong market growth:
  1. The US federal legalization debate is on the table
  2. Many other countries are considering this too and High Tide is well positioned for these; this is catalyzed by the fact that government debt has increased significantly as part of the response to the COVID-19 health crisis. This needs to be repaid somehow, and increasing tax rates on existing taxes is an unpopular political move. Finding new tax revenues is a more palatable way of increasing tax revenues for governments. This is especially important in countries where elections are upcoming.
Regulation
Demand
Strong performance throughout COVID-19 crisis
Data
Forecasts financials & analysts

https://preview.redd.it/9ft3iuw6zmg61.png?width=602&format=png&auto=webp&s=44f5a24a035466bac6e9e72c70eb1edcadf5091d
Valuation
https://preview.redd.it/83j8aqdkzmg61.png?width=342&format=png&auto=webp&s=f06ec34f6de10eeae049710dd59c494f6ef697c9

https://preview.redd.it/1z2ap11mzmg61.png?width=406&format=png&auto=webp&s=775ddc0c9d7e99412dbb4eb1fbbf8ed4645bc235
NB – assumed the following:
  1. Net debt will change in coming year given the capital structure and a large number of convertible notes – this has been ignored given it will have small impact on the price
  2. The share count will change as a result of dilution from various instruments – if this bothers you massively then look at the valuation discount on the basis of the enterprise value as it does not impact this (and only slightly on the market cap given minimal impacts to cash from instrument execution, etc.)
  3. Not accounting for any stock split, consolidation or any other M&A deals
  4. The FY21 financials are on the basis of the mean broker estimates from Thomson Reuters – Seeking Alpha has different and slightly outdated ones
Investment Risks & Mitigants / Outstanding DD points
Exposure to changing regulation
Dilution

https://preview.redd.it/n8dzmapozmg61.png?width=602&format=png&auto=webp&s=12e0e8bbd93f0c5c17920e7a5c5fad2559cc8bf0
Potentially misleading cost basis information
Marketing expenses and celebrity licenses
If you want to check out the video, it would be appreciated: https://youtu.be/qsjwU7kkPsw
submitted by AlexM-YT to TheDailyDD [link] [comments]

Robinhood can be a gambling platform, but it's not and removing it or regulating it will exacerbate the divide between the wealthy and the rest of the U.S.

Hi everyone,
Lately I've been reading and watching on the news about Robinhood and I just wanted to give my two cents as somebody who actually researches Gambling disorder in the United States. My goal in this post is to hopefully encourage people on WSB to become politically active in preventing the regulations or removal of certain aspects that Robinhood allows on its investing platform. First, let me define some terms from the Gambling disorder field:
In this post I will address a few arguments at Robinhood. The first is regarding the "gambling" nature of investment that Robinhood purportedly encourages. The second is that the average investor needs to be "protected" because they lack the information and knowledge to participate on the app.
When I first downloaded Robinhood, I was skeptical at first and proceeded to uninstall and reinstall it multiple times before I deposited $350 to invest in stock. The app provided me a "scratch-off" with my first deposit that rewarded me with my first stock (some medical company). That was the only time that event occurred. If we look at my prior definition of gambling, technically that is not a form of gambling. I placed nothing of value on this random outcome. If the actual act of investing in stock is gambling this leads to an interesting analogy regarding trading platforms, not just Robinhood.
Stocks are the game (roulette, blackjack, craps), Robinhood and trading platforms are the dealers (giving information on the rules of the game and how much it costs to place a bet), and the liberal market is the casino.
In this analogy everybody is in the Casino, and if you don't play the game you stand to lose regardless as your money loses value to inflation. Even worse, if the casino folds the people that didn't cash out or were fully invested in the casino never collapsing (The Great Depression, the recession of 2008 the coronavirus recession) can stand to lose everything even if they didn't participate (regular person that was laid off) or were placing safe bets (ETF's Blue chip stocks etc).
The Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth, William Galvin, is addressing the wrong issue by suing Robinhood. What should be addressed is the reasons that people even participate in Robinhood or in any trading platform. The average individual doesn't understand the market and the United States does not address this ignorance by providing information on how to properly invest for retirement or provide a welfare structure that protects against poverty as individuals become unable to participate fully in the economy due to injury, developmental disability, age, discrimination or lack of access to the "free" market. To claim that people on Robinhood "gamble" for excitement or risk is reductive. People invest their money on Robinhood for the potential accumulate life changing "tendies" that will protect them from the eventuality that they will be unable to participate in the economy and the government will not insulate them from the fiscal impact an individual will (not if) have to deal with in regards rising medical cost for their healthcare and any other services they would require in order to lead a normal life. If William Galvin is actually concerned about the "gamefying" of investment, he should focus on regulating Wall Street and the Banking sector, because last time I checked investors on Robinhood invest with their own money, not the money of other people.
The argument that the average investor isn't informed also leads to more issues that I guarantee the government doesn't want to address or even ask because it would require an expansion of the welfare state and higher taxes on companies and individuals. If the average American is too dumb to invest using Robinhood that what is the solution? The U.S. government has always fought any sort of government guaranteed income or services to insulate an individual against against insolvency from the free market as can be seen by the desire to privatize almost all forms of government programs such as Social Security, Medicare, Food Stamps and Medicaid. This has already occurred with certain programs at the federal level such as HUD which doesn't do anything to help people get affordable housing and the drastic reduction in funding for colleges and universities especially after boomers were done getting their degrees for essentially free.
So lets examine what the average person has to understand in the American economy,
So the average American is suppose to navigate all of the aforementioned areas with little to no government assistance. But Robinhood should be regulated, makes sense. Let's not even talk about that most Americans read at about an 8th grade level and have a tough time understanding that a quarter pounder is less than a one third hamburger...
"Why the third pound hamburger failed: One of the most vivid arithmetic failings displayed by Americans occurred in the early 1980s, when the A&W restaurant chain released a new hamburger to rival the McDonald’s Quarter Pounder. With a third-pound of beef, the A&W burger had more meat than the Quarter Pounder; in taste tests, customers preferred A&W’s burger. And it was less expensive. A lavish A&W television and radio marketing campaign cited these benefits. Yet instead of leaping at the great value, customers snubbed it. Only when the company held customer focus groups did it become clear why. The Third Pounder presented the American public with a test in fractions. And we failed. Misunderstanding the value of one-third, customers believed they were being overcharged. Why, they asked the researchers, should they pay the same amount for a third of a pound of meat as they did for a quarter-pound of meat at McDonald’s. The “4” in “¼,” larger than the “3” in “⅓,” led them astray. --Elizabeth Green, NYT Magazine, on losing money by overestimating the American Public Intelligence."
The REAL QUESTION is what responsibility does the government have to insulate the average American from an economy that by its very nature is predatory, especially when the argument set forth by William Galvinson is that the public doesn't understand how to invest on Robinhood. Especially since the government has told the public from day one to take care of themselves as they get older through investing instead of expecting the government to provide assistance. By removing or regulating Robinhood, the fungibility of the average American's dollar will drop in value because they are prevented from another avenue of wealth accumulation, which research shows (at least for those in poverty) they turn to gambling as a means of wealth accumulation because even though the return on a gamble is less it is technically even since their dollar is also worth less.
I think I may have gone on a rant, sorry.
TL; DR,
Please buy me some tendies William Galvin, because I like to be wined and dined before I GET FUCKED!
Robinhood isn't gambling. Robinhood just provides a service to investing on Wall Street, the actual gambling is our devotion to supply side economics which is the original, STONKS ONLY GO UP 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
Also, if we are going to start regulating Robinhood because of the actions of a minority (WSB) then we should start regulating other industries that are WAY more predatory and impact a larger amount of the U.S. such as, payday loans, guns, pharma industry, surprise medical bills from emergency rooms, childcare, prison industry, bail industry etc. I bet you the cost to the U.S. economy from those industries is way more than anything Robinhood has done.
Positions: SAVE at 18.45 67 shares; and TQQQ 5 shares at 174.71
submitted by TankMainOW77 to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

What investors need to watch for in 2021

With the conclusion of the 2020 elections and the inauguration of President-elect Joe Biden on the horizon, it's time to take a look at what things as investors to watch for in the coming year. We are now beginning to get a picture of the balance of power in Washington and how that is going to affect the markets and investing. Let's analyze what is likely to happen and what you need to watch for.
  1. Stimulus: For several weeks now, the folks in Washington have been debating back and forth about another round of stimulus money for the economy as a response to the COVID pandemic and its effect on American businesses, workers and investors. Many politicians have been calling for a $2000 stimulus check for American families. Less than a week before the inauguration, we are likely to find out what President-Elect Biden's plan is going to look like in a speech scheduled for this evening. Biden is expected to unveil a stimulus package that he describes as being "in the trillions" of dollars of federal stimulus money. We are likely to see a return to the return of a $600 weekly unemployment benefit and a third stimulus check. Biden has tweeted that he will push for a $2000 stimulus check, something the Democrats in the House and Senate have been pushing for for more than a month. Depending on how it works its way through Congress and what Biden and congressional members of his party come up with, we could end up with a plan that includes two more stimulus checks; one right away and one more down the road. Republicans may try to stand in the way of more stimulus money, but Democrats are likely to have enough votes to get more stimulus checks through congress.
  2. Investments: With the Dow and the S&P at or near all-time highs, one would think that the stock market has recovered even if the economy has not. Stocks seem completely separated from the harsh realities of other areas of the economy: business revenues, bankruptcies, unemployment and decreased travel and vacation spending. However, as the vaccine rollouts continue and as the pandemic begins to subside (which is likely to happen by the 2nd quarter of the year), there will likely be some pent-up demand on many sectors of the economy, including the aforementioned travel sector. Restaurants, hotels, casinos, airlines, theme parks and other businesses that have been hurt the most from the pandemic may see a boom in the summer and fall months. But, most sectors of the economy are likely to do better in 2021 than they did in 2020, with the possible exception of online retailing. (And even then, I'm not expecting that sector to experience a significant slow-down). We may see indexes reach all-time highs multiple times throughout the year, assuming we don't have something else unexpected come along to tank the economy once again.
  3. Taxes: The balance of power should prevent a major change in Federal Income Tax rates and deductions for at least the next 2 years. While President-Elect Biden has a tax plan that would increase taxes significantly on higher wage earners, and would raise Capital Gains taxes and payroll taxes, those plans would have to be approved by Congress. It's unlikely that Biden will get everything he wants through the divided Congress. However, even if he gets some things through congress, it could have a significant impact on some investors. Investors would be wise to keep an eye on tax changes that find their way into law and adjust their investment strategies accordingly.
  4. Retirement Planning: There were a lot of changes to retirement planning in 2020, mostly because of the Secure Act, which passed with bipartisan support. There were also provisions in recent pandemic relief bills that temporarily altered rules for retirement withdrawals. With the new balance of power in Congress, a retirement bill with further enhancements could emerge in 2021. Provisions could include such things as raising the age for required minimum distributions to 75, indexing catch-up contributions for inflation, and adding additional catch-up options for those over 60.
  5. Health care: Joe Biden ran a big part of his campaign on improving the Affordable Care Act, but the future of that law depends heavily on what happens with the case currently before the Supreme Court, and that may not be decided until the summer. “I’d put the odds of the court overturning the whole law pretty low. From that point, it’s then a matter of what the government can do administratively through the Health and Human Services Department and through current law,” says Febeo. For instance, the Biden administration may undo many recent actions taken, some as simple as widening the open enrollment period that Trump narrowed. In the meantime, at least for the first part of 2021, health care policy will ostensibly be about fighting COVID-19, rolling out the vaccine distribution, and gett
https://www.vhinny.com/p/moneywatch-2021-nw1ghz8u64
submitted by ixamnis to RedditTickers [link] [comments]

COVID-19 Megathread #6

This post is updated daily.
You can also follow the Reddit Live thread here.
 
COVID-19 has now infected more than 215,956 people. There have been 8,757 confirmed deaths and 84,080 confirmed recoveries attributed to the virus.
 
Recent Updates
Note: These are the updates from the last 48-72 hours.
MARCH 18 -
 
MARCH 17 -
 
MARCH 16 -
 
Tracking COVID-19
 
Reputable Sources for Information:
submitted by hoosakiwi to news [link] [comments]

Subreddit Stats: RedditDayOf top posts from 2019-12-31 to 2020-12-29 15:54 PDT

Period: 364.05 days
Submissions Comments
Total 1000 3465
Rate (per day) 2.75 9.48
Unique Redditors 235 1337
Combined Score 44480 12132

Top Submitters' Top Submissions

  1. 4310 points, 85 submissions: Superbuddhapunk
    1. Margaret Hamilton, NASA's lead software engineer for the Apollo Program, stands next to the code she wrote by hand that took Humanity to the moon in 1969. (252 points, 15 comments)
    2. Close Encounters of the Third Kind Geocache in Northern Italy (241 points, 10 comments)
    3. Cleaning tips from CleaningTips (194 points, 3 comments)
    4. Cheesy Origins - The etymologies behind the names of some of the world's most popular cheeses. (169 points, 45 comments)
    5. Around the World in 50 traditional breakfast dishes (155 points, 30 comments)
    6. Roosevelt dime 10c coin Mint error, off center strikes (142 points, 7 comments)
    7. President Obama Roasts Donald Trump At White House Correspondents’ Dinner (2011) (138 points, 30 comments)
    8. Beautiful elderly Common Snapping Turtle just coming to say Hello. Spring Lake, San Marcos, TX (137 points, 6 comments)
    9. Christmas tree in the main hall of the Galleries Lafayette department store in Paris, France. (124 points, 5 comments)
    10. Not open during a CAT 5 hurricane? 1 star for you! (119 points, 7 comments)
  2. 3607 points, 135 submissions: 0and18
    1. The final Calvin and Hobbes strip ran on Sunday, December 31, 1995 (170 points, 6 comments)
    2. ‘The Kentucky Derby Is Decadent and Depraved,’ by Hunter S. Thompson (85 points, 3 comments)
    3. Between 1995 and 2000 music companies were found to have used illegal marketing agreements such as minimum advertised pricing to artificially inflate prices of compact discs in order to end price wars by discounters such as Best Buy and Target in the early 1990s. (81 points, 1 comment)
    4. Yuki-toKori discovers his new jeans have a hidden inside pocket for a condom (80 points, 12 comments)
    5. Geof Darrow’s Hard Boiled (77 points, 2 comments)
    6. His Face All Red by Emily Carroll (73 points, 4 comments)
    7. American Public School teachers do not get paid over summer break. (68 points, 45 comments)
    8. The Pervert Who Changed America: How Larry Flynt Fought the Law and Won (66 points, 0 comments)
    9. This chart shows the most common display resolutions, makes zero sense to me. (64 points, 17 comments)
    10. Two Michiganders arrive in hell (64 points, 3 comments)
  3. 2511 points, 38 submissions: InvisibleLemons
    1. The House of Slaves in Gorée Island, Senegal, is a museum and memorial dedicated to the Atlantic slave trade that some believe served as a major trading port for slaves captured from Africa. It's argued that up to 15 million people were put through the “Door of No Return” and shipped off as slaves. (175 points, 2 comments)
    2. Anna Bērzkalne was the first Latvian to earn a degree in Folkloric Studies. She purposely wrote her thesis in English rather than German as a form of non-violent resistance against the Nazi occupation of Latvia during World War II. Her degree was not recognized by the Soviet authorities. (138 points, 2 comments)
    3. Losing a language means more than the disappearance of words. This six-part film and multimedia experience follows four Indigenous communities who are revitalizing their languages and cultures. (136 points, 5 comments)
    4. Hilma af Klint belonged to "The Five", a circle of women who shared her belief in the importance of trying to make contact with what she called the High Masters, often by way of séances. Her paintings, which sometimes resemble diagrams, were a visual representation of complex spiritual ideas. (129 points, 7 comments)
    5. Stephen Duneier, aka Yarn Bomber, has the world record for the largest crochet granny square made by a single person. The granny square measures 1,311 square feet, weighs over 60 pounds, took two years to make, and has over a half million stitches. (120 points, 7 comments)
    6. Fictional Map from one of my favorite book series as a child, Dinotopia (117 points, 7 comments)
    7. The indigenous city of Cahokia, across the river from St. Louis, is thought have had at most 40,000 people living there. Cahokia was large enough to have suburbs and had an equal pop. to London in the 1200s. No city would have surpassed it's pop. in north America until Philadelphia in the 1780s (112 points, 8 comments)
    8. Rand Paul was the national debt for halloween in 2015. He said it was a very scary costume. (104 points, 23 comments)
    9. World's Largest Rubber Stamp in Cleveland, Ohio (104 points, 7 comments)
    10. In 1949, Warren Buffett, the most successful investor in the world, was infatuated with a young woman whose boyfriend had a ukulele. In an attempt to compete, he bought a ukulele and has been playing it ever since, often at stock meetings. (93 points, 3 comments)
  4. 2256 points, 58 submissions: sbroue
    1. A successful slave rebellion against the French made Haiti the second independent nation in the Americas. (118 points, 2 comments)
    2. Rare 300-Year-Old 'Beard Tax' Coin Discovered in Russia (112 points, 4 comments)
    3. The song Funiculi Funicula was composed to celebrate the opening of a Funicular railway up Mt Vesuvius (87 points, 5 comments)
    4. Wave Rock West Australia (87 points, 4 comments)
    5. Internet trolls are not who I thought — they're even scarier (77 points, 2 comments)
    6. Ethiopian 18th Century crown returns home (75 points, 1 comment)
    7. The Shocking True Tale Of The Mad Genius Who Invented Sea-Monkeys (75 points, 6 comments)
    8. When America Despised the Irish: The 19th Century’s Refugee Crisis (71 points, 0 comments)
    9. Blue Weevils "wrestling" (70 points, 8 comments)
    10. Step Inside the World's Most Dangerous Garden (If You Dare) (70 points, 4 comments)
  5. 1879 points, 49 submissions: tillandsia
    1. What do you mean we, paleface? (128 points, 4 comments)
    2. In the myth of Narcissus, Nemesis, goddess of revenge, decides to punish Narcissus. She lures him to a pool, where he leans upon the water and sees himself in the bloom of youth. Falling deeply in love with his reflection, and unable to leave, he melts away, eventually turning into a flower. (112 points, 2 comments)
    3. Fragment of a Queen's Face, possibly either Queen Nefertiti or Tiye, Egypt, New Kingdom, Amarna period, ca. 1353-1336 B.C. (97 points, 4 comments)
    4. Pumpkin Spice Latte Tiramisu (81 points, 17 comments)
    5. 1970s Key West (76 points, 12 comments)
    6. The garbage pickup on my street, before covid, was always sometimes a minute before 8 am, sometimes a couple of minutes after. Sitting in the house, drinking my coffee on Monday and Thursday mornings, I'd always know what time it was when I'd hear the truck. (74 points, 3 comments)
    7. How to make spaetzel, a pasta made with fresh eggs (68 points, 6 comments)
    8. ‘The Death of Marat’: A Powerful Painting of One of the French Revolution’s Most Famous Murders (66 points, 8 comments)
    9. Color Aid Paper, used in art school to teach Josef Albers' theory of color (62 points, 5 comments)
    10. Not a lizard nor a dinosaur, tuatara is the sole survivor of a once-widespread reptile group (62 points, 1 comment)
  6. 1857 points, 26 submissions: Mr_Caterpillar
    1. Diane's NPR ringtones [Bojack Horseman] (227 points, 15 comments)
    2. The Hulk throws a bear into space (173 points, 15 comments)
    3. Bryan Cranston tells the story of an ad-libbed joke as dentist Tim Whatley on Seinfeld (133 points, 3 comments)
    4. There's something about holding a good, solid mace in your hand (124 points, 8 comments)
    5. Side-by-Side scenes from Ghost in the Shell and the original animated film (107 points, 7 comments)
    6. Twilight in Prague (97 points, 2 comments)
    7. Roller Derby Fact [SLAM #1] (91 points, 3 comments)
    8. Tracer Bullet - Calvin and Hobbes' hardboiled detective parody (89 points, 4 comments)
    9. Mapping out the evolution of Rock Music from the film School of Rock (88 points, 24 comments)
    10. Ronald Jenkees started his career by making music in his bedroom and posting to youtube. This is his song "Try The Bass" (77 points, 10 comments)
  7. 1120 points, 27 submissions: coiso
    1. a high school football coach got half the fans of his own team to cheer for the other team, because the other team was from a maximum-security juvenile correctional facility and didn't have any fans of their own (157 points, 5 comments)
    2. Animals see more colours than humans. Here's a chart. (135 points, 16 comments)
    3. If a beta male mandrill wins a fight, it physically morphs into an alpha male over time, gaining facial coloration, bigger testicles, and the ability to breed.) (95 points, 6 comments)
    4. Urinetown - a 3 times tony award winner musical about a town where private toilets are outlawed... (68 points, 5 comments)
    5. Stormtrooper hits his head (63 points, 4 comments)
    6. The story of grindcore: "This isn't metal, it isn't punk, I don't know what the f**k these guys are doing" (61 points, 1 comment)
    7. the longest single set at the laugh factory lasted 7h and 34m (by Dane Cook in 2008). (58 points, 64 comments)
    8. 5 Ways to Spot Greenwashing (51 points, 1 comment)
    9. Jeffrey Dahmer’s Childhood Friend Talks About His Graphic Novel "My Friend Dahmer" and Its Movie Adaptation (41 points, 3 comments)
    10. Daily life in Russia – gallery by The Guardian readers (38 points, 1 comment)
  8. 1097 points, 23 submissions: gorditasimpatica
    1. “If you tell a big enough lie and tell it frequently enough, it will be believed.” (126 points, 3 comments)
    2. The First Labor Strike in History: In 1159 BCE, the tomb-builders and artisans at Set-Ma’at refused to wait any longer for their wages and marched toward the city shouting “We are hungry!” (125 points, 2 comments)
    3. Get the feel of a winner, 1978 Sears Catalog (104 points, 6 comments)
    4. Polls are not always right (90 points, 38 comments)
    5. "Every line of serious work that I have written since 1936 has been written, directly or indirectly, against totalitarianism..." (84 points, 4 comments)
    6. The Sonoran Desert is thought to have the greatest species diversity of any desert in North America, including 60 species of mammals, 350 bird species, 20 amphibians, 100 reptiles, 30 species of native fish and more than 2,000 species of plants (77 points, 5 comments)
    7. They took away our land, our language, and our religion; but they could never harness our tongues..." Brendan Behan (76 points, 6 comments)
    8. "Lafayette We Are Here" (59 points, 2 comments)
    9. The Wuppertal Suspension Railway is the oldest electric elevated railway with hanging cars in the world. Designed by Eugen Langen, it opened in 1901 and is still in use as public transport, moving 25 million passengers annually. (56 points, 2 comments)
    10. Mugshot model Jeremy Meeks continues his topless runway streak (44 points, 1 comment)
  9. 1062 points, 18 submissions: eladarling
    1. Ways the Great Lakes try to Murder Ships - illustrated (219 points, 17 comments)
    2. The Dunning-Kruger Effect: the least competent are more likely to overestimate their ability (123 points, 4 comments)
    3. Before video games, Nintendo sold a variety of other products including playing cards depicting nude women, and by-the-hour sex hotels. Their first big customer was the Yakuza, who used their cards in illegal casinos. (106 points, 6 comments)
    4. Earl Grey tea is black tea flavored with oil of bergamot, a green citrus fruit grown mostly in Italy (105 points, 9 comments)
    5. "At Last," Etta James's signature song that most people today associate with her (75 points, 3 comments)
    6. One of the largest piñatas on record was a 65 ft tall donkey filled with 8000 lb of candy. It was smashed open with a wrecking ball to release the sweets inside. (74 points, 3 comments)
    7. World Islands, a cluster of man-made islands in Dubai, was supposed to be a lavish multicultural paradise. Most are still undeveloped or abandoned due to economic, climate, and construction issues. (62 points, 3 comments)
    8. What If God Was One of Us - Joan Osborne (56 points, 2 comments)
    9. GonzoVR was a short lived VR app where users could drive an rc car around my living room and buy treats for my dog Gonzo (40 points, 4 comments)
    10. Hysteria High: How Demons Destroyed a Florida School (35 points, 1 comment)
  10. 1024 points, 22 submissions: ShimataDominquez
    1. The head of a tapeworm under an electron microscope (256 points, 19 comments)
    2. What happens when you have heated tile flooring (150 points, 4 comments)
    3. Jon Stewart Deep Dish Rant (84 points, 14 comments)
    4. In-A-Gadda-Da-Vida The Simpsons take on a Psychedelic Rock classic (82 points, 4 comments)
    5. Ewoks should have met a terrible fate, scientists say (46 points, 0 comments)
    6. Robocop Commercials (38 points, 2 comments)
    7. Green Onions (32 points, 1 comment)
    8. The Jetsons! (32 points, 0 comments)
    9. Frank Lloyd Wright, a narcissist and control freak. (31 points, 8 comments)
    10. Why is smiling being frowned upon in the Russian culture? (31 points, 11 comments)

Top Commenters

  1. 0and18 (659 points, 466 comments)
  2. jostler57 (145 points, 40 comments)
  3. Otterfan (139 points, 19 comments)
  4. Superbuddhapunk (124 points, 43 comments)
  5. astronoob (110 points, 7 comments)
  6. anotherkeebler (101 points, 23 comments)
  7. Goyteamsix (94 points, 21 comments)
  8. goofballl (85 points, 14 comments)
  9. thespaceghetto (84 points, 20 comments)
  10. swizzler (81 points, 21 comments)

Top Submissions

  1. The head of a tapeworm under an electron microscope by ShimataDominquez (256 points, 19 comments)
  2. Margaret Hamilton, NASA's lead software engineer for the Apollo Program, stands next to the code she wrote by hand that took Humanity to the moon in 1969. by Superbuddhapunk (252 points, 15 comments)
  3. Close Encounters of the Third Kind Geocache in Northern Italy by Superbuddhapunk (241 points, 10 comments)
  4. It's Dangerous to go Alone... by yankee4357 (228 points, 11 comments)
  5. Diane's NPR ringtones [Bojack Horseman] by Mr_Caterpillar (227 points, 15 comments)
  6. Ways the Great Lakes try to Murder Ships - illustrated by eladarling (219 points, 17 comments)
  7. How a deep sea blobfish looks with and without the extreme water pressure by Imaginary-Cow (216 points, 10 comments)
  8. How to Talk Minnesotan: The Power of the Negative by SteelWool (203 points, 5 comments)
  9. Cleaning tips from CleaningTips by Superbuddhapunk (194 points, 3 comments)
  10. All movies on IMDB are rated on a ten-point scale. All except one. by anotherkeebler (188 points, 9 comments)

Top Comments

  1. 48 points: jesseaknight's comment in In the show St. Elsewhere, a character in the finale is shown to have thought of the whole series, which means he also made up all the shows that had crossovers with St. Elsewhere. This expands into the shows that were mentioned in the shows. There is at this point 419 shows in this universe
  2. 44 points: Derosa6037's comment in the longest single set at the laugh factory lasted 7h and 34m (by Dane Cook in 2008).
  3. 43 points: astronoob's comment in Margaret Hamilton, NASA's lead software engineer for the Apollo Program, stands next to the code she wrote by hand that took Humanity to the moon in 1969.
  4. 42 points: rus_reddit's comment in Rand Paul was the national debt for halloween in 2015. He said it was a very scary costume.
  5. 40 points: thejesiah's comment in Close Encounters of the Third Kind Geocache in Northern Italy
  6. 38 points: electro_hippie's comment in Why is smiling being frowned upon in the Russian culture?
  7. 37 points: SlideNERD's comment in The head of a tapeworm under an electron microscope
  8. 37 points: wtfisthisnoise's comment in Is U.S. income tax invalid because Ohio wasn’t legally a state when the 16th amendment was ratified?
  9. 35 points: Otterfan's comment in President Obama Roasts Donald Trump At White House Correspondents’ Dinner (2011)
  10. 35 points: _Foy's comment in Ways the Great Lakes try to Murder Ships - illustrated
Generated with BBoe's Subreddit Stats
submitted by subreddit_stats to subreddit_stats [link] [comments]

GLPI Gets Approval for St. Louis Gaming Real Estate Monopoly

GLPI Gets Approval for St. Louis Gaming Real Estate Monopoly submitted by LVsportsbetting to missouri [link] [comments]

MONEYWATCH 2021

With the conclusion of the 2020 elections and the inauguration of President-elect Joe Biden on the horizon, it's time to take a look at what things as investors to watch for in the coming year. We are now beginning to get a picture of the balance of power in Washington and how that is going to affect the markets and investing. Let's analyze what is likely to happen and what you need to watch for.
  1. Stimulus: For several weeks now, the folks in Washington have been debating back and forth about another round of stimulus money for the economy as a response to the COVID pandemic and its effect on American businesses, workers and investors. Many politicians have been calling for a $2000 stimulus check for American families. Less than a week before the inauguration, we are likely to find out what President-Elect Biden's plan is going to look like in a speech scheduled for this evening. Biden is expected to unveil a stimulus package that he describes as being "in the trillions" of dollars of federal stimulus money. We are likely to see a return to the return of a $600 weekly unemployment benefit and a third stimulus check. Biden has tweeted that he will push for a $2000 stimulus check, something the Democrats in the House and Senate have been pushing for for more than a month. Depending on how it works its way through Congress and what Biden and congressional members of his party come up with, we could end up with a plan that includes two more stimulus checks; one right away and one more down the road. Republicans may try to stand in the way of more stimulus money, but Democrats are likely to have enough votes to get more stimulus checks through congress.
  2. Investments: With the Dow and the S&P at or near all-time highs, one would think that the stock market has recovered even if the economy has not. Stocks seem completely separated from the harsh realities of other areas of the economy: business revenues, bankruptcies, unemployment and decreased travel and vacation spending. However, as the vaccine rollouts continue and as the pandemic begins to subside (which is likely to happen by the 2nd quarter of the year), there will likely be some pent-up demand on many sectors of the economy, including the aforementioned travel sector. Restaurants, hotels, casinos, airlines, theme parks and other businesses that have been hurt the most from the pandemic may see a boom in the summer and fall months. But, most sectors of the economy are likely to do better in 2021 than they did in 2020, with the possible exception of online retailing. (And even then, I'm not expecting that sector to experience a significant slow-down). We may see indexes reach all-time highs multiple times throughout the year, assuming we don't have something else unexpected come along to tank the economy once again.
  3. Taxes: The balance of power should prevent a major change in Federal Income Tax rates and deductions for at least the next 2 years. While President-Elect Biden has a tax plan that would increase taxes significantly on higher wage earners, and would raise Capital Gains taxes and payroll taxes, those plans would have to be approved by Congress. It's unlikely that Biden will get everything he wants through the divided Congress. However, even if he gets some things through congress, it could have a significant impact on some investors. Investors would be wise to keep an eye on tax changes that find their way into law and adjust their investment strategies accordingly.
  4. Retirement Planning: There were a lot of changes to retirement planning in 2020, mostly because of the Secure Act, which passed with bipartisan support. There were also provisions in recent pandemic relief bills that temporarily altered rules for retirement withdrawals.
With the new balance of power in Congress, a retirement bill with further enhancements could emerge in 2021. Provisions could include such things as raising the age for required minimum distributions to 75, indexing catch-up contributions for inflation, and adding additional catch-up options for those over 60.
  1. Health care: Joe Biden ran a big part of his campaign on improving the Affordable Care Act, but the future of that law depends heavily on what happens with the case currently before the Supreme Court, and that may not be decided until the summer.
“I’d put the odds of the court overturning the whole law pretty low. From that point, it’s then a matter of what the government can do administratively through the Health and Human Services Department and through current law,” says Febeo. For instance, the Biden administration may undo many recent actions taken, some as simple as widening the open enrollment period that Trump narrowed.
In the meantime, at least for the first part of 2021, health care policy will ostensibly be about fighting COVID-19, rolling out the vaccine distribution, and getting the economy back to normal.
Thanks for reading!
Checkout ixamnis's page for more.
submitted by BasaliumSchrink to vhinny [link] [comments]

READ THIS FIRST: Official Frequently Asked Questions and Answers - Important Up to Date Information You Need To Know about EIDL

\*LAST UPDATED 8/01**)

OFFICIAL FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS FOR EIDL


PURPOSE:
This post will be a master thread with everything we have collectively learned on EIDL about the loan and the application process. It will be updated on an ongoing basis and will always contain the most current information. Things change frequently at the SBA with policy and you should check back on this thread on a regular basis.
Please post any questions not covered and I will respond and add them here.

INDEX OF QUESTIONS:

  1. How do I get in touch with customer service phone support?
  2. What are my chances of being approved for this loan? Can I know in advance?
  3. I received a decline letter for “Business activity not eligible”. What can I do?
  4. How is the loan amount calculated? How can I request a specific amount?
  5. What is the maximum loan amount?
  6. When will I get my portal invite?
  7. I finally got a portal invite and accepted and submitted an amount. My application says it is "processing", now what?
  8. I understand that processing really means "underwriting", but how long will it actually take? What is the normal amount of time?
  9. Does contacting my congressmen or senator actually work?
  10. I accidentally entered the wrong revenue or COGS on my application and my offer amount was lower than I expected, is it possible to change this?
  11. I need to change my Rev or COGS and I already accepted an amount in the portal, Tier 2 told me to do it! Is it too late?
  12. Who are you, cue378? Can you help me?
  13. My loan as obligated or already funded, I made a mistake with my COGS or revenue and I am not happy with the amount. Can I change it?
  14. How do I show support for the volunteers and moderators for EIDL
  15. I received my portal link, but when I go to create an account it just takes me to the login page. What can be done?
  16. I was declined for "unsatisfactory credit". What are my options?
  17. What documents are required? Will a loan officer contact me?
  18. What is the status of the Advance/Grant program? Can I still get a grant?
  19. What are the eligible uses of EIDL funds?
  20. I received a denial letter for the reason "ECONOMIC INJURY NOT SUSTAINED". What does this mean and what can I do?
  21. What is CAWEB and how can it help me track my loan disbursement and other status?


1. QUESTION: How do I get in touch with customer service phone support?
ANSWER: The highest level of official customer service is known as "tier 2" and can be reached by calling 1-800-659-2955 and asking for Tier 2. (NOTE: As of 5/29 the previous direct number is currently out of service) They are unfortunately, a very limited means of support. They are able to check your application status and see the current "stage" and leave notes in your file, but unable to directly make any changes or escalate anything in a meaningful way.
Most are very nice and well meaning people but are usually poorly informed and often provided contradictory information between calls. The important thing to understand is that notes left by T2 do not actually notify a loan officer or anyone, they are simply waiting to be read if someone happens to open your file and takes the time to review the case notes. So if a T2 says they requested a change do not assume it was or will be made.


2. QUESTION: What are my chances of being approved for this loan? Can I know in advance?
ANSWER: The loan is relatively easy to get approval for by loan standards. The exact underwriting criteria the SBA is using was leaked by some helpful people (hat tip to u/Sbaleaky) and thus you can have a good understanding what your chances are.
Underwriters look for the following:
-Minimum Credit Score of 570. They will pull from experian. Close to Vantage 3 model found on nav DOT com or TransUnion numbers on credit karma. They do NOT use FICO. Credit score is largest factor for approval for this loan and no exceptions are made for under 570.
-If economic injury was sustained based on formula described in QUESTION 4. If this is a negative number you will be auto declined. (SEE QUESTION 5) The SBA does not consider potential revenue lost or general expenses in the loan amount.
-Tax liens or tax issues are NOT a disqualifying factor or taken into consideration for COVID19 disaster.
-Business start date must be prior to 1/31/20
-open bankruptcies = Declined. Closed OK.
-Arrest for felony < 5 years = Declined
-Arrest for misdemeanor < 5 years = Declined
-Sole proprietors with delinquent child support > 60 days = Declined
-Any business principals with 50% or more ownership with delinquent child support > 60 days = Declined
-Your business must pass verification in some way that it is a valid operation. If they can find it on google it will suffice. Otherwise you may have to provide documents to prove it's a legit business.
-Your business type must not be on the list for ineligible business activity. See list on FAQ.
-All owners on application must be either US citizens or Permanent Residents. E-2 Investor visa is NOT eligible and any attempts to appeal or add a co-borrower who is a citizen or LPR will be unsuccessful. Corporations, Partnerships, and Limited Liability Entities (LLE): Alien-owned corporations, partnerships, and LLEs properly registered and licensed in the state where the disaster occurred are eligible. If any member, partner, or shareholder, owning 20 percent or more of the applicant business is in the USA they must be a qualified alien. If the alien resides outside the USA an exception may be made.


3. QUESTION: I received a decline letter for “Business activity not eligible”. What can I do?
ANSWER: EIDL has a list of restricted business categories, if your type is NOT on this list and you still received this letter you may have been improperly classified.

The following applicants are not eligible for EIDL assistance.



4. QUESTION: How is the loan amount calculated? How can I request a specific amount?
ANSWER: There is no way to request a specific amount, the eligible amount is calculated automatically by formula based on your inputs. There are three known formulas:
  1. Standard Small Business: Revenue minus COGS divided by 2 minus advance, subject to maximum of 150K
  2. Not for Profit: 6 months operating expenses year prior to 1/31/20
  3. Business that collects rental property income, your offer is calculated by lost rents due to the disaster, not the standard formula. If your offer is lower than expected you may have been wrongly classified into this formula.
  4. Agricultural businesses: 6 months operating expenses year prior to 1/31/20
If the formula results in a negative number or less than your advance you will be declined for "ECONOMIC INJURY NOT SUSTAINED"

5. QUESTION: What is the maximum loan amount?
ANSWER: As of last update it is currently 150K cap. This will not change anytime soon and there will be no way to request more at present. The only way to avoid the cap is if your loan was already being obligated prior to the change by the SBA from 500K. If I hear anything new on this it will be updated here.

6. QUESTION: When will I get my portal invite?
ANSWER: Portal invites are a fully automated process and not strictly sequential but follow general group patterns. If you see someone that has a higher number than you get a portal invite it does NOT mean you were "passed over".

7. QUESTION: I finally got a portal invite and accepted and submitted an amount. My application says it is "processing", now what?
ANSWER: This is when the actual loan process starts and underwriting begins. Your application will be assigned a loan officer for review using the criteria listed in question 2. The exact process is as follows (hat tip u/sbaleaky and u/LOL_Face_69) with the actual stages from start to finish. Keep in mind that once you accept in the portal a number of things are going on behind the scenes, which is why "processing" can take a great deal of time. Once you see a loan amount in your portal, this is NOT a "pre-approved offer". It is simply a potential amount you are eligible for based on the stated formula if you pass underwriting.

[The following takes place behind the scenes and will not reflect in your portal, but will still say "processing"]
Note: The exception to this process is that some applications which are considered easy (based on unknown factors) to approve are subject to full automation and may go straight to approval bypassing the above steps. This only happens in rare cases.
You may also see a status that says, "On-Hold" Amount $0: This status typically is when your loan was temporarily declined and is still in the reconsideration department pending possible reconsideration approval. It most commonly relates to credit based issues or problems pulling your credit report from Experian.


8. QUESTION: I now understand that processing really means "underwriting", but how long will it actually take? What is the normal amount of time?
ANSWER: The amount of time it is normal for your portal to say "processing" is highly variable as a hundred different factors are involved behind the scenes. Once you submit for processing you are in queue to be assigned a loan officer**.** If your application has been in underwriting for greater than 20 days it may merit investigate, but not necessarily indicate a problem with your chances of approval. Do NOT panic if it seems "stuck" with no communication from anyone. This is normal.

UPDATE: As of 7/20 the current queue/wait time to be assigned a loan officer, get approved, and have closing docs drafted is 14-18 days. Some are seeing immediate automated approvals same day, this only happens in around 30% of cases. The rest must be manually processed. You are NOT "stuck" if you are still within this time range.



9. QUESTION: Does contacting my congressmen or senator actually work?
ANSWER: Yes, the SBA treats congressional inquiry very carefully and will flag and sometimes white glove your application. Often they will assign a special case worker during the process. The important thing is when your local congressional office reaches out they do NOT contact the local district SBA but this email: [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]). This email is NOT for use by applicants but only official government purposes.


10. QUESTION: Help! I accidentally entered the wrong revenue or COGS on my application and my offer amount was lower than I expected, is it possible to change this?
ANSWER: Yes, but only if you meet the following two conditions:
  1. You should NOT have already accepted an amount and submitted for processing in the portal. *If you already did see note below.
  2. You have documentation to backup the changes such as Federal Tax Returns 2018 or 2019 or P&L Statements. Tax returns are preferred if available but not required if the offer is showing as eligible in the portal.

The important thing here is DO NOT accept the offer in the portal if you need to revise your numbers.

*IF YOU HAVE ALREADY ACCEPTED THE OFFER: Call tier 2 support as soon as you possibly can and ask them to make the following note in your file: Loan Officer, DO NOT approve this file without calling me, the applicant, because my (revenue or COGS) figures are wrong. I have supporting docs to make the changes. Please contact me ASAP.


11. QUESTION: I need to change my Rev or COGS and I already accepted an amount in the portal, Tier 2 told me to do it! Is it too late?
Answer: Unfortunately tier 2 is currently giving absolutely terrible advice in this situation. They are telling people to accept the offer in the portal to speak with a loan officer to make the revision. The problem is that once you accept you set the process in motion and then it gets obligated by treasury it is impossible to adjust. The proper time is prior to accepting. Often times loan officers never are needed, never reach out or even read these notes. I see it every day and people are stuck its the "kiss of death" advice. If you already accepted you may have time but would need to work quickly from date of submit.
UPDATE: As of 6/15 there is now a way to fix this. See question 13.

12. QUESTION: Who are you, cue378? Can you help me?
ANSWER: I am a small business owner sharing the information, strategies, and general knowledge I have gained over the course of 4 months and helping in almost 1000 cases. I do not work at the SBA nor do I have any affiliation with the SBA.
Do to an extreme flood of requests for help, I will not be able to answer PM's or chat requests.
Some people have asked how they can support my efforts. While I do not ask for donations, another volunteer decided to setup a tip jar in case people want to show their support. To be clear any assistance I offer is entirely free without any expectations. Please note, anything donated prior to contacting me in an effort to gain faster help/special attention won't yield those results, while appreciate your support I keep everything fair to others who don't donate. The tip jar can be found HERE.


13. QUESTION: My loan was obligated, already funded, or I already accepted the amount in the portal. I made a mistake with my COGS or revenue and I am not happy with the amount. Can I change it?
ANSWER: As of 6/12 loan modifications are now being allowed. You can contact [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) and request a "Loan Modification increase". It is a 3-4 week process that requires documentation. A second loan will be given for the difference from the first one. It will be processed as a 20xx series loan in the old system/portal. For more details email me. Note if you have not yet accepted the offer the normal process is much faster.


14. QUESTION: How do I show support for the volunteers and moderators for EIDL
ANSWER: For supporting Cue378, there is a tip jar listed above. If you wish to show support to our community moderators, you may reach out to them direct at u/tahoechick36 and u/Scorpio14534to ask how you can show your appreciation for their time and efforts. It takes a great deal work run the community and they are putting in a near full time effort outside their normal occupations.

15. QUESTION: I received my portal link, but when I go to create an account it just takes me to the login page or I get the error: "The user account has not been confirmed yet. What can be done?
ANSWER:
If you takes you back to the login screen instead of letting you create an account, try following the steps HERE

16. QUESTION: I was declined for "unsatisfactory credit". What are my options?
ANSWER: You have a few options.
  1. You can bring your vantage 3 score over 570 by paying down cards, when you are ready you can request the SBA re-pull your report and reactivate your account via [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected])
  2. *You can request to add a co-borrower that has a higher score than 570 with no open bankruptcy and run their credit to reactivate your application.
*As of July 20th the SBA is no longer allowing the use of a Co-Borrower for reconsideration of an insufficient credit denial. Further details and updates on this situation are available in the thread HERE.

17. QUESTION: What documents are required? Will a loan officer contact me?
ANSWER: In many cases no documentation is required and everything is self certified. Most commonly an LO will need to contact you to clarify some things about your business or request specific documents, or confirm your public business presence. In about 1/3 cases you will receive no communication from a loan officer and approvals are automated. For denials you lose self certification ability and you will be required to furnish full documentation.


18. QUESTION: What is the status of the Advance/Grant program? Can I still get a grant?
ANSWER: As most of you already know, the EIDL Advance/Grant program has ended and the full 20 billion in funding for the advance has been exhausted. The option has been removed from new applications. Getting funding for the advance as a new applicant at this time will not be possible.
For older applications please see this post for more information:
https://www.reddit.com/EIDL/comments/hr3l41/eidl_news_714_update_regarding_the_current_status/

19. QUESTION: What are the eligible uses of EIDL funds?
ANSWER: These loans may be used to pay fixed debts, payroll, accounts payable and other bills that can’t be paid because of the disaster’s impact. What are all the possible uses of the funds? The wording ‘obligations that are unable to be met due to lack of revenue’ seems to be a catch all, but how much so? The EIDL working capital loans may be used to pay fixed debts, payroll, accounts payable, and other bills that could have been paid had the disaster not occurred. The loans are not intended to replace lost sales or profits or for expansion.
If you have more specific questions on the allowable usage of EIDL funds, one of our moderators, u/Scorpio14534 who is also a licensed professional CPA that is very knowledgeable on this matter is open to email requests. They can be reached here: [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected])

20. QUESTION: I received a denial letter for the reason "ECONOMIC INJURY NOT SUSTAINED". What does this mean and what can I do?
ANSWER: This occurs when the numbers entered on your application for COGS are greater than your revenue. The SBA calculates economic injury based on the formula in question number 4. You can also be denied for this reason if the resulting number is less than your advance amount. Please note that the SBA is only taking into account revenue earned prior to the disaster date of 1/31/20 to calculate your economic injury. If your only revenue was earned after that date as a newer business you may not qualify, but it is possible to use a 12 month projection which you can submit to reconsideration.
If the numbers on your application were correct, you would not be eligible for an EIDL. If you made an error you can request an amendment and reactivation of your application.

21. QUESTION: What is CAWEB and how can it help me track my loan disbursement and other status?
ANSWER: You can use the Capital Access Finance System to track your EIDL after your documents have been signed and submitted through funding. It allows you to see disbursement status and other details related to your loan.
****Hat tip to u/tahoechick36 for this amazing write up*\*
Using the Capital Access Finance System to track your EIDL after your documents have been signed and submitted through funding.
Visit caweb.sba.gov or click the link at the top of EIDL
Setting up an account:
You need a SBA Loan # to set up an account - for EIDL it appears on the first page of your documents, in the upper left hand area, and says "SBA Loan # XXXXXXXXXX.”
SBA loan #'s are 10 digits. Your Application # will NOT work for account set-up.
If you have a PPP Loan, you can use your SBA # for this loan to set up an account. Sometimes this # is easy to figure out, sometimes not. That has to do with an intermediary (like your bank) being involved, but if you can track down an actual SBA Loan #, you can go ahead and get registered without your EIDL loan number.
  1. On the home page click on "Not Enrolled?" in the top left. This takes you to a screen to enter info. You may come to hate this screen, this process is very finicky.
  2. Look at the rules for creating a User ID and Password by clicking on "Rules..." next to the fields.
  3. Write your exact ID & password down somewhere - if you ever get locked out and call the SBA for help, they are going to tell you that Borrowers are not supposed to be able to access CAFS CAWeb. Apparently we still can, so don't make this a big deal or maybe that will change!
  4. For user type - select "borrower" from the drop down menu.
  5. Fill in the highlighted fields with your info. Click on the "ZIP LOOKUP" button after you enter your zip code. This auto populates some other boxes, and registration won't work if you don't do this.
  6. For the country code in the phone number section enter "1" for the United States.
  7. Financial commitment ID is your Loan # - 10 digits.
  8. If you don't have a landline, it has been reported that just entering your mobile number in both fields works. You will have to select 3 of their security questions, enter the Captcha image info, then hit "submit" at the bottom.
If it didn't like the info you have entered, it will give you an error message for what part it didn't like, and you will have to try again, which requires re-entering quite a bit of the information. It's a pain.
But if it takes it, you're in! There may be a verification step now as well.
Finding your loan on CAWeb
  1. On the caweb homepage, login (if you aren't already), it will be personalized and show your name. You have to scroll down and check the "Agree to Terms" box when you are logging in.
  2. Click on "Borrower" in the top left, then click on "Borrower Search". This should take you to your "Loan List" showing the loan #, borrower name, loan type, amount, and loan status.
  3. PPP loans typically appear as "Active Un-Disbursed" - if your PPP is already funded don't worry about that. Your EIDL will show up as "Disbursed Current" if funds are on their way. It may say something else if you look immediately after you send back you Docs, but it should change pretty quickly. Logging out and back in again will sometimes refresh the status. Loan status will say "Active Un-Disbursed" until Treasury send the funds to your bank, then it changes to "Disbursed Current".




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