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We need to talk about NOK
Feb 4, mid-market: Thank you everyone for your support. I really don't know what to say. The company keeps getting pounded because GME is having a sell-off, which doesn't make any sense. But that's the market for you. It doesn't always make sense. I still believe 2021 will be a big year for Nokia, although it doesn't look like there is any way we'll manage the crazy play anymore. Still, it was nice to see something that was impossible become possible, even if it was for only a few days. And remember, we can still do it any day. All it takes is for us to work together. If you want. Make up your own mind. I'm still holding. NOK will recover from this. Fair value is at least 4.81, and way more when 5G really gets going. So if you can, I would buy some more now. You'll thank me later for the tip. It may not be the most exciting play, but it is what investing is all about. Slow and steady growth that compounds to make a big change. One of these days I'll be able to post again, when the mods lift the restrictions on new posts and things get a little less crazy around here. When I post again about NOK, I'll post the link here too. Thanks everyone! Feb 4 premarket: Earnings out! They beat expectations a bit, their revenue was a little smaller than expected. Overall, good quarter, good year. Here it is: https://www.nokia.com/system/files/2021-02/nokia_results_2020_q4.pdf Feb 2, end of day: It's getting pretty crazy out there, but here's what you should know. The NOK chart is following the GME chart. It's got way more shares so the bumps and dips are more stable, but that's the main trend. What that means: GME has no underlying value at this level. It is a gamble on the short squeeze. It might pay off, or it might not. If people panic sell like yesterday, it won't. NOK is very different. It has underlying value. So if someone dumps it below its target price, the best thing to do is just to buy and wait for the value to go down. Thursday NOK reveals its earnings, and they are likely to be good based on what Ericsson revealed. Ericsson is one of its main competitors and a very similar company currently trading at twice the NOK price. Feb 1, end of day: Told you it was a value share! Still trading at target, still low risk. Either dumping has stopped, or normies are piling in because of the results. Either way good news, hope you made some money today!Vol today 190m, still way above average. Normal average 30m before we changed it lol. That means since Wednesday over 2bn shares have changed hands. Hope you got em! Ericsson (NOK competitor) results suggest NOK will report good numbers this week, NOK upped to BUY on market watch: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nokia-upped-to-buy-after-ericsson-results-2021-02-01 Unless my math is retarded (which it is cos ahmsodumb), if everyone (7m) on this sub spends $3000 at current price ($4.55) we BUY THE FLOAT. The more they keep dumping, the more shares we get cheap. Think about it.EDIT: buying the ENTIRE float is NOT the point of this play. I know share price goes up when supply is restricted, just read the play. This is just an example of what happens when they dump a value share on millions of retail investors. BLACKROCK IS IN PEOPLE: https://fintel.io/so/us/nok/blackrock Robin hood increases NOK allowance to 2000 shares for next week (still any allowance is CRAZY because it's a VALUE SHARE THAT HASN'T BUBBLED) https://robinhood.com/us/en/support/articles/changes-due-to-recent-market-volatility/?fbclid=IwAR2SK9VQOI_eBgBF0SK4-R1eQjBkSAe3sd6KMwSBaCPmz38e5cc8siRdhEY You dump a VALUE STOCK on me and think I'm in danger? Added new summary (30 Jan), and Q&A. FIRST OFF: This post is not financial advice or anything except the rant of some idiot retard who is an idiot. I tell you straight up that there is a normal investment side to the NOK play (STILL MEANS RISK, which YOU will have to decide!) and that there is a CRAZY side that is PROBABLY IMPOSSIBLE. If you want to play the crazy play then you’re also a crazy retard idiot just like me. I don’t know shit, I just look at graphs and go WOW. Do your own due diligence, I am not a financial advisor. Don’t ask me if you should buy, I don’t know, can you afford to? Are you comfortable with the risks? I don’t know these things. You do. NOK PLAY: Here’s how it works. YOU DECIDE if you want to take part. 1.It’s not a short squeeze like GME. Get that out of your head. 2.It’s a value/momentum play. The value part is just normal granny&grampa investing. See a good company going cheap, buy and hold. Tell your mom, dad, granny and grampa, cousins, relatives, friends. 3.The momentum part is the crazy part, and if it works the share will SKYROCKET as long as YOU DON’T SELL. GME is the biggest short squeeze in history, the NOK play could be the biggest value buy in history.
The beauty of it is that it works because Wall St is dumping NOK irrationally. That’s why the price is going down (slowly). They think they’re attacking us and slowly winning, but they’re giving us a value share cheap = their money, our pockets. By the time they realize what we did, it will be too late.
Don’t panic, and keep buying the dumps (if you think the company has value), and if we hold the line you could see a miracle.
3310 HANDS Value Part (crazy part in Q&A): The company is healthy, has good financials, it’s a market leader in 5G (it’s main competitors are Huawei and Ericsson, they have about the same market share share of 5G) a lot of potential to be the company that builds 5G for a large part of the world. NOK is currently trading at a standard price for the value it holds. It is not a bubble. Here’s Nokia’s 5G contracts: https://www.nokia.com/networks/5g/5g-contracts/ Here’s Bloomberg shitting bricks that we’ve realized that Nokia is a value bet: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-01-28/gamestop-may-be-a-reddit-wallstreetbets-game-but-nokia-sure-isn-t Nokia also just unveiled new 1tb tech, the thing AFTER 5G. First on the world. They have it, they’re showing the world it works. Here is their press release from Wednesday: https://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/nokia-and-elisa-push-network-boundaries-with-worlds-first-1t-deployment-2021-01-27 They are so trusted that NASA got them to build a cell network on the MOON. Literally. If you’re NASA, would you hire your retard uncle Earl to build cell towers on the moon? No, you hire someone who CAN ACTUALLY DO IT. Imagine what it takes to build something really big and complicated on the moon? Now imagine who’s the likely guy who can do it. That’s right, NOKIA. Here they are, going to the moon: https://www.nokia.com/about-us/news/releases/2020/10/19/nokia-selected-by-nasa-to-build-first-ever-cellular-network-on-the-moon/ If the Huawei 5G war continues, who do you think US and Europe is going to back, especially since NOK already has the next tech, owns a bunch of patents, is from FINLAND that has never tried to take over the world and has a brand that EVERYONE who lived in 2000s remembers? Here’s a guy who’s been doing the numbers for a while now in case you want to see them: https://www.reddit.com/useJimming/comments/l7f6ua/part_iv_option_chain_analysis_on_nok_and_why_you/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf I don’t know him, I don’t know the numbers as well, but looks pretty good to me. Amazing due diligence. But what do I know, I’m an idiot. So is he. So are you. We’re all fucking retards, just ask Wall Street. I poked myself in the same eye twice yesterday. We’re “dumb money”. They have other names for us too. So, worst case, you just bought into a good company at a fair value. If the crazy play doesn’t work, you just hold on to them and let them become the world leader in 5G. Unlike GME (NOT SAYING SELL!), NOK will not fall 99%. Or if it does, I'M BUYING THAT SHIT because if a HEALTHY COMPANY FALLS 99% you make some CRAZY MONEY on that when it bounces back. Q&A Q: You retards were tricked by bots to buying NOK, there’s no short A: This just full on doesn’t get what the play is about. IT IS NOT A SHORT SQUEEZE. THIS IS NOT GME RINSE REPEAT. GME IS A DIFFERENT PLAY. NOK IS A VALUE PLAY. How many more ways can I say it? Not sure. How many more do I have to? Q: Stop taking attention away from GME you retards A: Nobody is saying sell your GME. Nobody is saying that. GME is too expensive for a lot of people, and GME is VERY RISKY and NOK has genuine value behind it. If the NOK play works, those people who couldn’t afford GME can still get on & get rich. If it doesn’t, they most likely still make money on a good company. Q: This play is impossible / crazy / it’ll never work / there are too many shares you retards A: This is ALMOST true. This play WAS impossible until 1/27/2021. That is why nobody has EVER tried anything like this. But it’s NOT impossible anymore. Look at this graph. Look at it. See that spike? What the fuck is that? I’ll tell you my fellow autistic space boot packin 3310 using NOKSTER. https://preview.redd.it/v473xl00ghe61.png?width=2182&format=png&auto=webp&s=bf5aac455156dbadb919b80afacb5232af0a05b5 That spike was them running out of shares for half an hour. Trade was stopped until they could find more, to avoid an artificial spike in the price. Proof? Look at the volumes. A small sale (red) causes a small dip. Two small buys cause a MASSIVE SPIKE. They ran out, and had to call their friends to liquidate more shares so the price wouldn’t skyrocket "artificially". But that’s IMPOSSIBLE for NOK. NOK has 5bn shares. Nokia should be much more stable because it has so many shares, having a crazy demand spike is crazy. I saw it, and fell off my chair and since I’m such a retard it took me an hour to get back up. So it was impossible, and that’s why Wall Street won’t see it coming. They think this is their attack and they’re about to break through our ranks, but they’re actually playing right into our hands. Wendnesday, we moved 1bn shares. Thursday, when nobody could buy, we still moved 500m. Yesterday, we still moved 360m. We’ve moved so much NOK in the past three days, the average volume of the share has MORE THAN DOUBLED in THREE DAYS. The play is not impossible anymore, but Wall St thinks it is, which is how we can use their own strength and mass against them. But the value buy still makes sense WHENEVER you see someone dump a valuable share. Someone sells you a 100$ bill for 90$? Buy it. They attack? We absorb. They dump, we buy, they run out of shares, we hold. They’re fucked, and they just handed us a bunch of value shares at an undervalue = they just gave us their money. They are just giving it to you. When they realize they can’t buy them back at a lower value, what do you think is going to happen? Q: We don’t do value plays, we do short squeezes you retards A: Go back to April. Look at u/DeepFuckingValue’s position. GME was a value play. It’s only in April that the Short Squeeze became possible. Look it up yourself. Will a short squeeze also happen with NOK? It’s unlikely. Hedge Fund Assholes have been increasing their shorts in NOK in the last few days, but they won’t go over 100% on 5bn shares because they're not as stupid as me. But it doesn’t have to happen. We just need to buy the dumps. If they short, great. More money for us as long as we don’t let them drive the price down with the dumps. Q: Why is NOK not rocketing? A: Because Wall Street is dumping, just like I said they would after the Wednesday spike. That’s the whole plan. They dump, we hold the line, buy the dumps and keep the price steady. The GME short squeeze guys waited for this for UP TO TWO YEARS. I saw it in April. I thought it was crazy. I didn’t jump in back then. If I did, I’d have about as much money as u/DeepFuckingValue. On a value share, you can afford to wait. GME was originally a value play. That’s what I should have realized in April. SO JUST WAIT AND HOLD (if you believe and idiot like me, which you shouldn't, no need to message me about it). It’s been two days since this play even became possible. Q: How do we know it’s working? A: Look at the volume of shares traded. Nokia has 5bn shares. In the last three days, nearly 2bn have been traded. The price is still up from last week. That’s how. This has already been a giant dumping campaign. How come the price hasn’t floored? What happens if we just buy it all up? What happens if they run out, and then their shorts blow, the price bumps up, CNBC tells the world we broke another short wall, everyone piles on, Wall Street realizes they just gave us their shares at an undervalue and try to buy back, we don’t sell, we have all the shares? The Wednesday spike is what happens, except this time there is no stopping it. If they stop trading again and try to dump some more, you just buy up the dump and keep the spike going. Spike stops being a spike and becomes a floor. Q: Where will this max out and when? A: What do you think I’m from the future? I just saw an impossible thing happen on Wednesday, and we need to make it happen again. Look at the graph. Look at it. Set your targets to $3310, that should do it. Q: When should I buy? What should I buy? Should I buy? A: Be your own person. Buy when you feel like it, if you feel like it. Q: Wall street bots are promoting NOK. A: I don’t give a shit. If they are, and we keep buying, they are promoting giving us money. Part 2: (29 Jan) First off, much as I appreciate the love, I can’t play your hand for you. You have to make your own decisions. Do I know where NOK is going to be tomorrow? Nope. Nobody does. All that I have for you is the news from Wednesday that this play is no longer totally impossible:
I think the assholes are going to try to dump you out of the market
It won’t work if we keep the demand up.
The way we keep demand up is we buy, and others will follow us because the company is good.
When they realize it won’t work, they’ll need to start buying back in.
Then it’ll be too late, cos they dumped their shares on US and we are RETARDS who HOLD. That means that when their shorts start to go bust, the price will jump up (a little bit, not like with GME at first – this is a different play based on the health of the company, not a straight up short squeeze. The short position on NOK is much smaller).
When the price jumps up, and the GME guys start cashing out, they need somewhere to put that cash. Some of them pay off student loans, or buy cars or whatever, but the smart ones will go NOK.
How you play it is up to you. I can’t tell you if you should buy, what minute to buy, what app to use and so on. All I can say is I buy the dumps. You need to decide for yourself if you want to do it. You can see the dumps on any app, or even yahoo finance. I buy NOK on NYSE, and I buy straight up shares (so they can’t lend out mine for shorts) but you’re free to do what you want. I’m a retard, you’re a retard, we’re all autistic fucks, we make up our own mind and stick with it. Secondly, what I said yesterday morning would happen, did happen. And it happened exactly like I said it would. So don’t get scared off, just buy the dumps. And they know that they’ll be fucked if we keep buying the dumps. That’s why they stopped us from buying NOK. NOK hasn’t bubbled, stopping us from buying NOK was because they know we’re on to them. They know the dumps won’t work if we JUST KEEP BUYING and HOLDING. The play works, they’re scared, we caught them with their pants down, they’re trying to get ahead of us. OK, so about what happened yesterday with RH and others. I’m so fucking angry about this. What RH and others did is completely insane. Their argument is “you guys are throwing your money away on a bubble, we’re just protecting you”. Bullshit. I won’t comment on GME, I’ll let u/DeepFuckingValue or one of those guys do that. I’ll just say, that short squeezes happen with hedge funds all the fucking time. Why is trading not stopped for them? They have people’s fucking pensions that they’re playing with. But for NOK, it’s TOTAL BULLSHIT. Here’s why:
NOK HAS NOT BUBBLED. Look at the graph. Look at it. It is still down from 2016. NOK is well within normal variation. Long term, you barely see the spike from a couple of days ago. There is nothing to “protect us” from. They’re protecting themselves.
The NOK play is not a straight up short squeeze. The play is HELPED by the shorts that are there, as long as we can keep the demand up and keep the price up against the dumping, but that’s all.
NOK is a healthy company, with new and important tech, a great brand, a lot of potential. You want to see why, read the original post. ANYONE who sees a company like that being dumped for NO REASON would buy. So should you. They are only dumping it because they’re trying to fuck up our play.
Ok that’s enough for now. I’ll see you all when I’ve got my space boots on, in my house on the FUCKING MOON, next to a NOKIA Comms tower, or I’ll see you in VALHALLA with my broke ass. If this doesn’t work, then at least you TOOK ON THE MOTHERFUCKERS and EARNED A PLACE at the table with FUCKING ODIN. UNBREAKABLE 3310! ORIGINAL POST (28 Jan): I get it, it’s not the play. I’m not saying sell your GME. I’m not a bot or a spy or a wall street asshole. I’m a regular guy who’s got a couple of bucks in his bank account and plays videogames and wants a fucking house to live in like my parents had when they were young. If you don’t agree with me, just say so. I’m also not a financial advisor, so make up your own minds you autistic fucks. But, BUT, yesterday we did something they’ve never seen. Yesterday, we made them run out of NOK shares. That’s what that big spike was, and that’s why trading was stopped for 2h. If we keep doing that, it will be the biggest wall street wealth transfer from assholes to retards in history. Because they will keep dumping it until it’s too late. Impossible, you say. Too many shares, you say. Well listen up. Yesterday, in ONE DAY, we traded, or caused others to trade, 1bn shares of Nokia. That is 1/5 of all the Nokia shares in the world. That’s never happened, EVER. Not even when Nokia was the biggest phone company in the world. 3516.16% of average trading volume. Do you get it? They’ll keep dumping their stock, we keep buying them cheap, and then they won’t be so cheap anymore when they try to buy back in. We can move 1bn shares IN A DAY. ONE DAY. 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 Why do they stop trading in NYSE? Cos they ran out of shares temporarily and they don’t want “artificial” spikes in the prices. So they made us retards wait a couple of hours while some assholes called some other assholes to unload their shares into the market, and once they had enough, they started again. That’s why that spike went down right after the freeze. But then we did it again. And they had to stop again. The price just wouldn’t go down. The assholes who’d just unloaded shares were probably back on the phone with the other assholes who’d convinced them. Everyone is watching us. What we do, millions of normal folks do with us, and every wallstreet asshole does against us. What did the asshole brigade do? They started shorting NOK. They will continue to do that, because they think we’re retards (they are correct). But how come the price didn’t go down? It’s got 5bn shares, and everyone whos ever held it was dumping it. How could we ever keep up the demand when there are so many shares out there? How is this going to work? Because the retard brigade was buying it. There’s 3m of us and counting. If we each put 600 bucks on NOK, we get 100 shares, and that’s 300m shares. Now imagine what happens if we put 6000 on it. AND. FUCKING. HOLD. And every dip you see, you buy more. AND. FUCKING. HOLD. They'll keep dumping, we keep buying, until they realize the price isn't going down. Then they start buying, we keep holding, the market runs out of NOK. Price skyrockets. And normies outside were following us. They can see that the stock is still LOW, lower than 2016. This means they don’t think it’s a bubble that’s going to crash on them. So why do the normies follow us on this, and not on GME? (I’m not saying sell GME). Because GME has never, ever been anywhere near where it is now. That scares a normal guy who’s just trying to put in some savings for his family. They think this is some Dutch tulip market shit. Not so with NOK. Even with the spike from yesterday, NOK is still DOWN from 2016. Remember 2016? Remember that being a really big year for Nokia? No, me neither. And let’s not even get started on where it has been in the past. Yesterday's spike barely shows on the graph. You know what is going to be a big year? 2021 and 2022. Why? What else did NOK say yesterday? Well, they revealed that they have a new kind of 1 terabit data transfer networks shit, what do I know, I’m not a techie. But it IS a new kind of technology that’s going to kick 5Gs ass. And my fellow retards of the most honorable retard brigade – Do you think we’re going to need more data this year than last year? Remember how Netflix had to downgrade its picture quality in March because the networks couldn’t handle the amount people were streaming? What do you think is going to happen with the company that solves that? But why would NOK be the company? Well, remember the 5G war with China? US and Europe can’t buy 5G from China, because then China has our networks. But guess who US and Europe aren’t afraid of? Fucking FINLAND. Finland, the land of NOKIA. So tiny that some people think the whole country is a conspiracy theory and doesn’t really exist. Sorry Finnish people, nobody gives a shit about you. Good thing for you, cos you get to build the 5G network on the moon and shit because nobody is scared that Finland will take over the world. Want proof? They are literally building one on the FUCKING MOON: https://www.nokia.com/about-us/news/releases/2020/10/19/nokia-selected-by-nasa-to-build-first-ever-cellular-network-on-the-moon/ And we’re going to send them there. 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 But hang on, why is NOK so low in the first place if it’s so great? Answer: because Microsoft fucked them. That’s right, they sent one of their own assholes to infiltrate the NOK, leak a bunch shit to drive the share price down, and then buy the phone part of the company. These assholes wrecked the company, the Finnish economy, and every middle class shareholder who was just trying to put their kids to college. Imagine everyone who’d be fucked if someone did that to Apple now. Worked like a charm. Firesale. Business restructuring. Lost their phones. NOK never recovered. The asshole they sent from Microsoft? Went back to work for Microsoft, and was paid a shit ton of money for what he did. His name is Stephen Elop. Look it up. So they have tech that nobody else has and a brand that everyone recognizes. But what don’t they have? Money. That’s why they’re building this 1tb magic network thing in tiny fucking possibly fake Finland to show everyone it works. But if we drive the share price up, do you think that’s going to change? So FUCK IT. I’m in for every penny, and I am HOLDING. I’ll see you in my house ON the MOON next to a NOKIA Comms tower, or I’ll see you in VALHALLA you BEAUTIFUL RETARDED MOTHERFUCKERS. TL;DR: NOK is literally going to the moon. Go there with them. 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
The real DD on SLV, the worlds biggest short squeeze is possible and we can make history
Update 2/4 - someone went ahead and spelled out the mechanics of the squeeze quite well and I would like to give their post attention https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/lc8vgo/slv_is_not_going_to_get_squeezedslv_is_the_trojan/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf Update 2/2 - I am able to comment again. I messaged several mods on Reddit and the mod account on Twitter. None of them responded but it appears I am able to comment again so I assume one of them lifted my ban Update 2/1 - I have been banned from posting on WSB. I guess they aren’t yet deleting my post here given the media attention. If this was a rogue mod I’d appreciate being restored the ability to post on WSB. I’m open to talking to any mods Update 1/31 - there have been tons of 'what to buy' questions so I added a clarity post, hope it helps. It's also getting downvoted to hell because its not about GME so that's discouraging. The speed at which the downvotes flew in makes me think someone made bots to crush new posts related to SLV (or maybe anything not GME). It makes no sense for this post to have 93% upvotes and my new one to have 28%. I have not sold my GME to buy SLV. I had a small pre-existing position in leaps I bought months ago. Created an official Twitter handle not sure if I’ll use it, but didn’t want anyone to impersonate me on there Here is the longer DD for the short squeeze case for SLV, a follow-up from my shorter post a few hours ago. Note that I talk in first person as this is something I’m going to do. Everyone is free to do as they individually please and copy my trade if they’d like to. I think it’s absurd that forces at be think this forum is manipulating by posting publicly but that’s where we are at right now. First things first, I'm not doing this until the GME rise is done. I am long GME but am going long SLV immediately after. Update 1/29: due to the manipulation and collusion of citadel, hedge funds, and brokers to change the rules and rig the game in their favor. Who likely knew ahead of time and bought puts right before and calls at the bottom, GME is too important to abandon still. SLV is still my next play but GME needs to go to $1000 and these people need to go to jail. If you just want to know what to buy skip to the end I present 2 investment DDs in this post, the short squeeze and the fundamentals. If you want to see what to buy The short squeeze: Buy SLV shares and SLV call options to force physical delivery of silver to the SLV vaults. Also buy physical silver bullion. The best possible thing would be to take physical delivery in the futures market if you have access to do so. The silver futures market has oscillated between having roughly 100-1 and 500-1 ratio of paper traded silver to physical silver, but lets call it 250-1 for now. This means that for every 250 ounces in open interest in the futures market, only 1 actually gets delivered. Most traders would rather settle with cash rather than take delivery of thousands of ounces of silver and have to figure out to store and transport it in the future. The people naked shorting silver via the futures markets are a couple of large banks and making them pay dearly for their over leveraged naked shorts would be incredible. It's not Melvin capital on the other side of this trade, its JP Morgan. Time to get some payback for the bailouts and manipulation they've done for decades (look up silver manipulation fines that JPM has paid over the years). The way the squeeze could occur is by forcing a much higher percentage of the futures contracts to actually deliver physical silver. There is very little silver in the COMEX vaults or available to actually be use to deliver, and if they have to start buying en masse on the open market they will drive the price massively higher. There is no way to magically create more physical silver in the world that is ready to be delivered. With a stock you can eventually just issue more shares if the price rises too much, but this simply isn't the case here. The futures market is kind of the wild west of the financial world. Real commodities are being traded, and if you are short, you literally have to deliver thousands of ounces of silver per contract if the holder on the other side demands it. If you remember oil going negative back in May, that was possible because futures are allowed to trade to their true value. They aren't halted and that's what will make this so fun when the true squeeze happens. Edit for more detail: let’s say there’s one futures seller who gets unlucky and gets the buyer who actually wants to take delivery. He doesn’t have the silver and realizes it’s all of a sudden damn difficult to find some physical silver. He throws up his hands and just goes long a matching number of futures contracts and will demand actual delivery on those. Problem solved because he has now matched the demanding buyer with a new seller. The issue is that the new seller has the same issue and does the exact same thing. This is how the cascade effect of a meltup occurs. All the naked shorts trying to offload their position to someone who actually has some silver. My goal is to ensure that I have the silver and won’t sell to them until silver is at a far higher price due to the desperation. The silver market is much larger than GME in terms of notional value, but there is very little physical silver actually readily available (think about the difference between total shares and the shares in the active float for a stock), and the paper silver trading hands in the futures market is hundreds of times larger than what is available. Thus when they are forced to actually deliver physical silver it will create a massive short squeeze where an absurd amount of silver will be sought after (to fulfill their contractually obligated delivery) with very little available to actually buy. They are naked shorting silver and will have to cover all at once and the float as a percentage of the total silver stock globally is truly miniscule. The fundamentals: The current gold to silver ratio is 73-1. Meaning the price of gold per ounce is 73 times the price of silver. Naturally occurring silver is only 18.75 times as common as gold, so this ratio of 73-1 is quite high. Until the early 20th century, silver prices were pegged at a 15-1 ratio to gold in the US because this ratio was relatively known even then. In terms of current production, the ratio is even lower at 8-1. Meaning the world is only producing 8 ounces of silver for each newly produced ounce of gold. Global industry has been able to get away with producing so little new silver for so long because governments have dumped silver on the market for 80 years, but now their silver vaults are empty. At the end of WW2 government vaults globally contained 10 billion ounces of silver, but as we moved to fiat currency and away from precious metal backed currencies, the amount held by governments has decreased to only 0.24 billion ounces as they dumped their supply into the market. But this dumping is done now as their remaining supply is basically nil. This 0.24 billion ounces represents only 8% of the total supply of only 3 billion ounces stored as investment globally. This means that 92% of that gold is held privately by institutions and by millions of boomer gold and silver bugs who have been sitting on meager gains for decades. These boomers aren't going to sell no matter what because they see their silver cache as part of their doomsday prepper supplies. It's locked away in bunkers they built 500 miles from their house. Also, with silver at $23 an ounce currently, this means all of the worlds investment grade silver only has a total market cap of $70 billion. For comparison the investment grade gold in the world is worth roughly $6 trillion. This is because most of the silver produced each year actually gets used, as I have mentioned. $70 billion sounds like a lot, but we don’t have to buy all that much for the price to go up a lot. **If the squeeze happens, it would be like 40 years worth of their gains in 4 months ** The reason that only 8 ounces of silver are produced for every 1 ounce of gold in today's world is because there aren't really any good naturally occurring silver deposits left in the world. Silver is more common than gold in the earth's crust, but it is spread very thin. Thus nearly every ounce of silver produces is actually a byproduct of mining for other metals such as gold or copper. This means that even as the silver price skyrockets, it wont be easy to increase the supply of silver being produced. Even if new mines were to be constructed, it could take years to come online. Finally, most of this newly created silver supply each year is used for productive purposes rather than kept for investment. It is used in electronics, solar panels, and jewelry for the most part. This demand wont go away if the silver price rises, so the short sellers will be trying to get their hands on a very small slice of newly minted silver. The solar market is also growing quickly and political pressure to increase solar and electric vehicles could provide more industrial demand. The other part of the story is the faster moving piece and that is the inflation and currency debasement fear portion. The government and the fed are printing money like crazy debasing the value of the dollar, so investors look for real assets like precious metals to hide out in, driving demand for silver. The $1.9 trillion stimulus passing in a month or two could be a good catalyst. All this money combined with the reopening of the economy could cause some solid inflation to occur, and once inflation starts it often feeds on itself. What to buy: Edit 2/24: I now advocate buying PSLV for shares, physical metal if the premiums come back down, and if you want options then SLV is still ok for that. I will be putting 50% directly into SLV shares, and 50% into the $35 strike SLV calls expiring 4/16. This way the SLV purchase creates a groundswell into silver immediately that then rockets through a gamma squeeze as SLV approaches $35. Price target of $75 for SLV by end of April if the short squeeze happens. Edit: for the part of your purchases going into shares, some people recommend PSLV because they think SLV might start lying about having the silver in their vault. Or that the custodian will be double counting, ie claiming that the same silver belongs to multiple people (banking on the fact that people wont all try to get their silver at once). So if you buy SLV shares and calls, that's great. But I think it could be prudent for us to buy options in SLV (no options on PSLV) and shares in PSLV. It all depends on how paranoid you want to be. There is a lot of paranoia in the precious metals world. Alternate options: - buying physical silver; this also works but you pay a premium to buy and sell so its less efficient and you take fewer silver ounces off of the market because of the premium you pay - going long futures for February or March; if you are a rich bastard and can actually take physical delivery of 1000s of ounces of silver by all means do so. But if you simply settle for cash you are actually part of the problem. We need actual physical delivery, which is what SLV demands and is why SLV is the way to go unless you are going to take delivery - miners; I don’t recommend buying miners as part of this trade. Miners will absolutely go up if SLV goes up, but buying them doesn't create the squeeze in the actual silver market. Furthermore, most silver miners only derive 30-50% of their revenue from silver anyways, so eventually SLV will outperform them as it gets high enough (and each marginal SLV dollar only increases miner profits by a smaller and smaller percentage) Details on SLV physical settlement: When SLV issues shares, the custodian is forced to true up their vaults with the proportional amount of silver daily. From the SLV prospectus: "An investment in Shares is: Backed by silver held by the Custodian on behalf of the Trust. The Shares are backed by the assets of the Trust. The Trustee’s arrangements with the Custodian contemplate that at the end of each business day there can be in the Trust account maintained by the Custodian no more than 1,100 ounces of silver in an unallocated form. The bulk of the Trust’s silver holdings is represented by physical silver, identified on the Custodian’s or, if applicable, sub-custodian's, books in allocated and unallocated accounts on behalf of the Trust and is held by the Custodian in London, New York and other locations that may be authorized in the future." Join me brothers. Lets take silver to the moon and take on the biggest and baddest manipulators in the world. Please post rocket emojis in the comments as desired. Disclaimer: do your own research, make your own decisions, everything here is a guess and hypothetical and nothing is guaranteed, not a financial advisor, I have ADHD and maybe other things too. Bear case: silver does tend to sell off if the broader market plunges so it’s not immune to broad market sell off. It’s also the most manipulated market in the world so we are facing some tough competition on the short side
BB -- Blackberry AWS -- Amazon Web Services IVY -- Intelligent Vehicles Yo. I don't actually know if this stands for anything QNX -- Quick-Unix perhaps? It's a Unix-like embedded microkernel RTOS (real-time operating system) EOY -- end of year PT -- price target SP -- stock price EV -- electric vehicle SoC -- System on a Chip IoT -- Internet of Things TL;DR: Blackberry ($BB) is almost daily announcing new partnerships and new clients for their software, including new deals with companies that are just now or just this year launching autonomous vehicles that run on QNX software. The big kahuna of all these deals is BB's recent partnership with Amazon to go 50/50 into BB's software IVY, a scalable cloud-connected software platform designed for intelligent vehicle data gathering and data sharing. With Amazon's Jeff Bezos stepping down, and Andy Jassy filling his shoes, who was the CEO of AWS, BB will have some very firm support behind Amazon's new CEO. BB and Amazon are having a webinar Feb. 23rd about their partnership and IVY, which should be a strong catalyst moving forward. IVY beta earnings are projected to begin impacting BB's Q3 or Q4 earnings beginning in November this year, with IVY fully being integrated around the 2023 timeframe. Through a lot of reading and analysis, I believe BB has a four-tiered business model dating back as far as 2013 when BB's CEO John Chen was hired to begin the massive BB turnaround process. Tier 1 was development of QNX and IVY, lasting from 2013 to today and onward, however, Tier 2 overlaps Tier 1. Tier 2 was customer acquisition, primarily distributing their secure software in QNX, SecuSuite, Spark, and AtHoc. They secured 37 automakers during this time, including 9 of the top 10 automakers, over 106 governments from around the world, including all of G7 governments and 18 of G20 governments, as well as 77% of Fortune 100 companies, including partnerships with Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Sony, XPENG, XPEV, NVIDIA, Intel, Qualcomm, Baidu, IBM, LG, Samsung, and others. Well if they have such an incredible market share, why are they so undervalued? The answer is that QNX was not the end-all-be-all product. It was the base that the rest would be built on. Particularly IVY, which is the real money-maker. Tier 3 is IVY beta, and Tier 4 is IVY distribution and subscription revenue streams. So why is IVY the big deal and not QNX? They are both big deals, but QNX was never designed to be the money-maker. They are charging a one-time fee per vehicle use. There is a bigger goal here, to secure their clients as their customers for the bigger product in IVY. They also need QNX is to be a secure system in order for IVY to be trustworthy and reliable. And it certainly is secure. QNX has ISO26262 certification, as well as US government clearance, NSA clearance, and CIA clearance. The US government uses QNX and Blackberry products. Just let that sink in. That should tell you something about its security. Anyways, IVY will be used in autonomous vehicle level 4 and level 5 communication (note that QNX is level 5 certified... it has a business moat just in its security level and clearance), as well as EV and gas vehicle data collecting and AI-powered data synthesis. See below for more details on IVY. Wrapping up this TL;DR, BB is going to do well this year as IVY unfolds, but will do even better in the next 2-5 years. I have a PT of 25 by EOY and a PT of 80 by 2023 EOY, and a PT of 160+ by 2025 EOY TL;DR: TL;DR: BB go up, but go slow for now because IVY revenue not here yet, but big fast later. Make big monies, BB is the future tech that Amazon, Microsoft, Google, etc will be building upon in the EV and IoT market
FAQs:
1) Why is Blackberry stock price going down? A: A few possible reasons. One, as of today the whole market is down. BB is connected to overall market swings as most companies are. Two, there may be some market manipulation by bearish financial institutions as there are a lot of calls expiring on 2/19. I would expect that BB SP to be volatile between $11 and $14 between now and then, and to move upwards after 2/19 and especially after 2/23 (Amazon + BB webinar). Three, there are bearish investors who still think BB is a phone company and don't understand the underworkings of BB's business strategy, their software, their patents, or their partners. Their revenue has been affected by coronavirus and has not been particularly phenomenal so far this year. 2) Should I invest now or later? A: First off, I'm not a financial advisor, these are just my opinions. Invest at your own risk. In my opinion, BB will see a large SP growth by EOY, anywhere from 50% to 150% growth by EOY. While revenue will likely not increase much this year, the partnership with Amazon and news regarding IVY will likely create new floors for their SP much higher than the current SP right now, at around the $12 SP 3) What's stopping competitors from building a similar product and hurting BB's business? A: There's a lot of reasons why BB has a huge moat right now. One, notice the partners that BB has with QNX. They've got all the big boys working them, aside from Apple and Tesla. Seeing as SpaceX runs on QNX, and seeing that Apple was trying to make a deal with Hyundai that did not go through, I think it is still possible that either Tesla or Apple or both companies could also make a deal with BB to use QNX as their OS system. BB worked to develop their QNX embedded microkernel OS for the last eight years or so. Anyone trying to step into the game now is far too late. Apple has the best chance of all companies, as it has its own OS and Apple knows security very well, but this still requires an entirely new system in order to work in the EV sector. Also, Apple announced recently that they would be developing their own EV, although they did not give much details beyond that statement. The likelihood that they are both working on the hardware and software side of this thing is slim given the large number of difficulties that come with certification as it relates to the cybersecurity software space. Regardless, I would suspect that either Apple or Tesla is the most likely to be competitors in this space, but neither company has successfully completed a certified OS system, particularly for the emerging sector of autonomous EVs. Tesla is currently building a Linux-based system that is having a lot of difficulty in passing certifications such as ISO26262, a struggle that has been ongoing for years now. They may achieve a product that passes these safety regulations and certifications, but the question remains whether this will be in time as the EV and autonomous market picks up speed, and whether competing companies would even be interested in using their product. In fact, any car company is unlikely to develop their own OS software because none of their competitors would be likely to use it. BB is the perfect business to license since it is not competing in the hardware sector for the EV market. This argument can also be used for Apple if they are also building an EV. 4) Why is BB's revenue so low if they have so many customers and partners? A: QNX has been licensed so far as a one-time purchase, per vehicle or IoT using their software. IVY will be a subscription-based software that also includes a one-time purchase. Thus, BB's revenue streams are somewhat unimpressive currently, but they are playing the long game. If my hypothesis is correct, it is John Chen's goal to lay low as software is developed and customer relationships are built. It's the same with the book market. It's the sequel that makes all the money, not the first book. QNX is just the first book of a series looking to hook in its customers with low costs before hitting 'em with the strong follow up in IVY. Additionally, in order to build a competitive business moat, it was to their advantage to not forewarn any competitors of their involvement and plans. Consider John Chen's work as a CEO in his last business Sybase. Chen worked as the CEO of Sybase for 10 years. For the first 7 years, the SP remained at around $10 a share. Three years later, the SP was at $100 a share. I suspect he is implementing a similar model with Blackberry. Chen joined Blackberry in 2013. BB stock actually dropped for most of the last 7 years, resting at a stock price of around $5. Now BB is at $12 a share. I would not be surprised if BB reaches $50 two years from now.
Blackberry Clients and Partners Automakers: Honda, Audi, Jeep, Mitsubishi, Ford, Hyundai, Volkswagen, Bentley, Lamboghini, Byton, Mini (cooper), Toyota, Subaru, Fiat Chrysler, Mazda, Nio, BMW, Porsche, Lexus, Kia, Land-Rover, Mercedes-Benz, Buick, Jaguar, Visteon, Skoda, Chevrolet, Nissan, Acura, Continental, General Motors, Baidu, Motional Other: Denso, Aptiv, Bosch, Panasonic, Harman, Bugatti, LG, Vodafone, Bell, Carahsoft, CACI, Telus, iSec, KPMG, Tableau, Qlik Major: Amazon, Google, Sony, XPENG, XPEV, Li Auto, NVIDIA, Canoo, Microsoft, Intel, Verizon, Qualcomm, IBM, LG, Samsung Major Investors: PRIMECAP, Hamblin Watsa, Ontario Teachers’ Pension, Vanguard, Harris Associates, ETF Managers Group, Wells Capital, Arrowstreet Capital, Kahn Brothers Advisors, Norges Bank Investment Governments: Albania, Andorra, Angola, Argentina, Australia, Austria, Bahrain, Belarus, Belgium, Benin, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Botswana, Brazil, Brunei, Bulgaria, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Canada, Congo, Croatia, Czech Republic, DR Congo, Denmark, Egypt, Estonia, Finland, France, Gabon, Germany, Ghana, Gibraltar, Greece, Guadeloupe, Hong Kong, Hungary, Indonesia, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Kenya, Kuwait, Latvia, Lesotho, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Macau, Macedonia, Malawi, Malaysia, Mali, Malta, Marthinique, Mauritania, Mauritus, Mayotte, Mexico, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Morocco, Mozambique, Namibia, Netherlands, Netherlands Antilles, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Oman, Philippines, Poland, Portugal, Qatar, Romania, Russia, Réunion, Saint Barthélemy, Saint Martin, San Marino, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Serbia, Singapore, Slovakia, Slovenia, South Africa, Spain, Swaziland, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Tanzania, Thailand, Togo, Turkey, USA, Uganda, Ukraine, United Arab Emirates, United Kingdom, Uruguay, Vatican City, Western Sahara, Zambia, Zimbabwe
Blackberry Current Revenues:
BlackBerry Revenues: How Does BlackBerry Make Money? -- Trefis This display the biggest bearish argument to BB. Until IVY begins producing new revenue streams, BB is likely to not exponentially increase revenue streams, but only sustain moderate YoY growth
Blackberry Analysis Regarding Infotainment and Google and Ford Deal:
see "Blackberry (BB) Stock News Analysis | What I need to say..." by Financial Live by LEYA on the forbidden video website The media recently picked out a story that left out a lot of pertinent information, making it seems that BB lost Ford as a client. This is not true. QNX is designed to be a SoC. This means that other operating systems, such as Linux or Android, can be easily added to QNX. It is in fact encouraged. The Ford and Google deal was simply announcing the Ford would be using Android as their infotainment system. I believe that BB was never intended to try and be the predominant entity for all software systems in EVs or IoTs, but the backbone that connects all together, and to protect all components in a secure system. Autonomous EVs and even regular EVs in general would not be possible without a secure system protecting the product, as is true with IoTs. This is also why things like US Fighter Jets run on... you guess it, QNX. Ford is still using QNX. It is simply also now using Android that is running on top of QNX more commentary on this: Analyzing Blackberry Bear Argument - Case No. 1: Ford Deal
Image This is an interesting one to be sure. Facebook was being evil, like the do, and were caught using a number of BB patents. They settled in February, and the day that the settlement was finalized, John Chen (BB CEO) tweeted reminding everyone that BB is used on the ISS https://twitter.com/JohnChen/status/1358853064153784321?s=20 Well, the connection and speculation here is that Blackberry is going to the moon, and that the settlement is rather significant. Someone else also dug out some information in Facebook's most recent 10-K, specifically a portion for a 'non-cancelable contractual commitment' of an amount of $7500 million dollars. That's 7.5 billion btw. We don't know how big the settlement is, but it is worth noting that BB's entire market cap is 7.5B. I highly doubt that a settlement would reach such lofty numbers, but it could be possible that FB settled for some initial amount of $1B or so, as well as $1B in reoccurring payments over several years. We won't know until March 15th actually, so stay tuned.
Blackberry New Partnerships
Within the last few weeks, Blackberry has announced a stronger partnership with Baidu (China's Google), as well as their involvement with Baidu choosing to use QNX for their autonomous vehicles that will be hitting the road, as early as this year and next. BB has also announced their involvement with Motional, a joint venture between Hyundai and Aptiv, which will use QNX for their autonomous vehicles. Motional will be partnering with Lyft to use autonomous vehicles to begin serving customers and will be deploying their vehicles in 2023. It was also announced that QNX will be working with AOSP (Android Open Source Project), as well as announcing yesterday that QNX Hypervisor 2.2 is now released, which is what allows Android and Linux to run on top of QNX. A sum-up of all the recent news on $BB
Rumor: Blackberry Buyout? Here's why that's not happening:
Just read this post. It's quite revealing: Great Day for BB despite stick dipping. TL;DR: Amazon could have easily bought BB. Why didn't they? Well, all the big players are interested in this EV and IoT emerging sector. This is the new wave of technology that will dominate the market. First we had the dot.com boom, then the cell-phone and smart-phone market, and now we have the autonomous EV and IoT market. If Amazon were to buy BB, they would have to submit a tender offer. This would be a red flag to all the big players that Amazon were trying to buy up the best security out there. It would be a bidding war that could result in a double-digit multi-billion dollar buyout. It was much more to their advantage to create a secret alliance with BB and establish a 50/50 partnership, whose contract includes exclusivity for their use of IVY. Ouch! That's gotta hurt. This is where the importance of QNX lies. BB will be able to pull the rug out from any company that chooses to use something other than IVY. No IVY, no QNX, no EV. It will be a package deal where IVY is the big money maker. All other companies will have to build from the ground up or be forced to license QNX and make their money off of other sectors, such as the infotainment sector, as Google has already begun to do with the Ford deal. When this deal happened, the other big boys wet their pants realizing they needed to get into this space, and fast. Microsoft partnered with Cruise/GM. Apple tried to partner with Hyundai, who was so flattered, they may have initially said yes or indicated so, before realizing that they were already partnered with BB, so it was a no-go. Not sure if that is fact or fiction, but it is an interesting proposal.
Blackberry IVY + AWS Partnership:
Alright, so what's the deal with IVY? Why is it going to be so profitable? Why is IVY the real money-maker, while QNX has been used as the customer-acquisition software tool? Check out this picture: Image For one, IVY is designed for real-time communication between EVs or other IoTs. Autonomous driving level 5 requires vehicles to communicate with one another. This is where IVY comes in. IVY connects the different software components of an EV (which presumably are running on QNX), as well as harvesting data on those systems. The data used can be distributed for a wide-variety of uses, including, but not limited to, automakers and suppliers, app developers, consumer services, smart cities, EV charging providers, insurance companies, and vehicle maintenance providers. All of these different sectors will be willing to pay subscriptions for these data services, as well as the automakers and IoT makers who will also be willing to pay subscriptions for IVY. For instance, IVY can help share information between vehicles that will allow for a car detecting ice roads in one area so that other cars using IVY can take a different route. This results in less crashes, which helps the automakers. Insurance companies can use data from all these different data points as well, allowing them an inside-view of their clients. The list of what is possible here is inexhaustible. As for price points, the subscription models for multiple outside companies wanting to use the data will be create huge revenue streams for BB. With Amazon as a 50/50 partner, and with their resources and strategic management, BB will be poised to be the foundation in security and data sharing for the entire EV, and somewhat of the IoT market (the IoT market has more competitors for sure) see "Is BlackBerry Stock Undervalued?" by Wealthy Mindset on the forbidden video website see "Roadmap to $180 a share (BlackBerry Stock)" by Wealthy Mindset on the forbidden video website
Revenue, revenue, revenue...
Blackberry is poised to be an industry leader in EV, government, and IoT security and data sharing with products such as QNX, IVY, Spark, and their other software products. Stock price will likely stay somewhat stunted until IVY revenue begins picking up. It is possible that more announcements and marketing related to IVY will make this growth more rapid. In my opinion, either way BB over the next 5 years will 10x. The question is whether you want to get in now at $12 / share or two years from now at $40 a share or something similar, assuming that either way this stock is going to push for that 100B market cap (it's currently at 7B). There will be bearish analysts that will continue to say that Blackberry is a worthless company until those IVY revenue streams begin to come in. It is also possible that a realistic competitor may emerge within the next three years, such as Tesla or Apple. But if Apple is seeking to create its own EV product, then both companies will have a hard time finding any way to license their software to any other company. It remains possible that Apple and/or Tesla may strikes deals with BB as well in order to be able to produce autonomous vehicles and get a bite of that market share
Really, no competitors?
Well it's called a business moat for a reason. As we have recently seen, QNX is working with AOSP, and so clearly, they are not to be worried about. Tesla is not a true competitor as their OS product is not certified yet, and has demonstrated difficulty in doing so, and additionally, other automakers will not want to benefit their competitors by using their product. A third-party non-auto-maker will be much more desirable. Other companies such as VxWorks, have a lot of to prove both in security and certifications, as well as producing an OS product that is compatible with an emerging autonomous level 5 EV market. QNX's embedded microkernel RTOS is very much unique in this regard. This type of system allows for real-time processing and power distribution, while protecting the system from attacks. In an embedded microkernel system, if one part of the system is attacked, the whole system will not shut down, in layman's terms. This is essential for the security of any high-risk product that is built upon an underlying software that controls that different components of the system.
Conclusion:
All eyes are turned towards Blackberry right now. People want to know what this deal with Amazon will look like, how it will work, what they will focus on, (will Amazon also use this system for a fleet of delivery drones? hmmm), what the revenue streams will look like, what are their projections, what markets and sectors are they targeting, what are their future goals, what will Amazon be doing on their end, etc, etc. The Amazon + BB webinar may answer some of those questions, or maybe they won't. Time will tell (Feb. 23rd, specifically -- here's a link to sign up and watch: Next-Gen Vehicle Architectures Unlock Unprecedented Opportunities for Automakers). Also look out for that FB settlement numbers on March 15th, and Q4 earnings March 31st. I don't expect Q4 earnings to be particularly interesting unless they include the FB settlement numbers. Could those numbers instead be put into Q1 earnings for 2021? Possibly. Initially IVY beta is expected to begin being released late this year. I will also be looking forward to see how Apple and Tesla respond in the coming months. Ultimately, BB is a long-term play, but is poised to dominate this emerging industry with the partnerships and security focused software they have secretly been building. Now if only the could do something about their logo, some rebranding would be nice... This is not financial advice, just my own opinions. I am not a financial advisor nor a professional. I own 14k shares in Blackberry, as well as options (10x 8/17/21 20c BB). Do your own DD and fact check me as well
The community doesn’t understand game development - A very long post from a game designer
I’ve been playing Destiny for quite some time and I’ve enjoyed the community around it a lot, but the one thing that frustrates me the most about Destiny is how little the community actually knows about game development. It’s driving me crazy, so I wrote this whole thing down. I’m a game designeproducer myself, I’ve never worked on a project as massive as Destiny (not many people ever do), but I have worked on several gaming projects, some of them big in large companies, some of them small gaming apps. I know enough to explain the basics here, but I’m definitely not the ultimate authority on videogames and I’m not representing Bungie whatsoever, everything here is only from my experience. My goal here is to give you some useful info and calm my mind about this. The Destiny community is incredibly vocal, especially this sub, which is generally a good thing, but the lack of understanding really damages not only the enjoyment of the community members but also the game itself IMO. I’ll explain some of the basics I think any hardcore fan should know here with an example and then I’ll outline some specific problems. How Games Are Made A videogame pipeline can be simplified into this flow: Demand from the top/the market -> top management decision -> design and prototyping -> development and feedbacks -> in house testing -> public testing -> marketing and publishing -> data collecting and analysis -> feedback implementation. It’s a circle that applies to everything from the big picture like the main campaign, to the smallest details like colors of shaders or proofreading of even the smallest posts. Every decision made in this system, even the tiniest ones, has to be debated, supported by data and expertise, approved in multiple places based on the priority, and checked multiple times after it’s implemented. Game developers, especially in a powerhouse like Bungie, are very skilled, talented, experienced, and passionate people who always do their best to navigate that flow to satisfy the demands with a quality product delivered on time. I can’t stress this enough, developers (including QA testers, designers, artists, marketing, publishing, the whole team) are pretty much always incredibly hard-working people with a love for video games, because otherwise, they would never stay in this scummy business. They’re underpaid, overworked, and most likely overqualified for what they have to do. Some of them know almost everything there is to know about their field and they’re always improving as well. Because video games, especially gargantuan living games with real-time action combat like Destiny, are insanely complicated, you need sometimes hundreds of experts to put them together. The pipeline needs to be perfectly planned, flexible so you can adapt to problems, and also easy enough to implement so you can deliver the product on time. All of these factors result in a tight-rope walk that never ends. Now it’s time for an example. Let’s say during Season of the Worthy you get an assignment to create a catalyst for Thorn that would make it more popular in PVE, but doesn’t make it overpowered in PVP. Seems simple enough, right? There are dozens of posts about this topic on this subreddit, how hard can it be. The answer is, very, very hard. You start working on your designs. You analyze all other exotic catalysts and hand cannon perks in the game - how they were made, their philosophy, psychological effects, and how they influence gameplay, you discuss everything in your team. When you create your first version, your design lead tells your whole team that hand cannons are getting a range buff and Thorn is now a 140 RPM and you have to adjust your design. After that, your priorities get shifted to helping with Beyond Light and the DSC weapons so it’s finished on time, so you put Thorn on hold. You don’t want to waste time though, so you give the art team an assignment to create the catalyst icon. After two months of work on Beyond Light, you come back to Thorn, but now you basically have to start over because the future meta has changed so much. You create new designs and this time they’re approved by management, so you move onto prototyping. Developers are way too busy debugging and QA testing Beyond Light, so they have no time for Thorn and that task gets put into their To-Do list. You have no choice but to move onto your other tasks and start working on weapons for seasons 13 and 14. When development starts finally working on Thorn, they find an exploit in your design that would allow it to two tap in PVP, you have to rework it again and hope they’ll have time to implement it this time. They don’t and the Thorn catalyst now officially misses its deadline and is pushed from Beyond Light. The marketing team doesn’t hear about it though, so they publish the icon you had made four months ago, leaking the catalyst coming out. This is of course your fault, but these things happen during all the chaos and there was almost nothing you could have done. When you finally push this task through and it’s checked and approved dozens of times in different places (weapon design team, design lead, writing, sandbox team, development, QA, studio director, etc.) you have to make sure it’s published correctly in the right build, it has all necessary descriptions and marketing texts done and translated into all languages and the community managers know about it so they can get ready to collect data. This single task took you a year to complete even when you did your best to do it fast and well and I left out about 90% of problems you would normally encounter. THIS is game development. Community Attitude and Feedback Now we get to why the uninformed community hurts the game so much. This sub would only see Thorn getting a catalyst and it would immediately be flooded with posts like “The catalyst sucks in PVE, buff pls”, “Bungo doesn’t care, the catalyst sucks for Warlocks” and a few “Why catalyst for Thorn, but not for Skyburner’s Oath”, completely missing the point of the catalyst and adding nothing to the discussion. Bungie devs are way more informed, skilled, and experienced than us, the community. The only feedback they are interested in from us is quantitative - basically what we like and what we don’t like about the game. Any posts giving them ideas, elaborate reworks, or straight up negative outrage will accomplish nothing, because they already know everything about the game and discuss it daily in way more detail than we could ever imagine. The only qualitative feedback they should collect and measure is from content creators and the top 1% of the player base because those people actually know some aspects of the game Bungie doesn’t. I know it may sound like the hated “Bungo only listens to sweats and Youtubers”, but that’s kinda the point, they should be listening. It doesn’t mean that our voices are ignored or not listened to. I would bet all of my money that all forums are constantly monitored and analyzed. The truth is, however, that the only valid opinion we can give that Bungie should consider is what aspects of the game we like, and what aspects we don’t. Anything beyond that we already tell them through data they collect from our play sessions. As I wrote above, any change within this massive game is complicated and could take months or years to be implemented, so being upset we don’t have everything now is just useless. Bungie is hard at work to make good stuff, we should respect them more and not bring out the pitchforks every time a season slows down a bit and we can’t play for four hours a day every day for the whole year. There will always be problems in a live game and they are doing a fantastic job, I can’t even imagine how much work must go into it. So before you post about something in the future, take a moment to think about the process and figure out what exactly you can provide to the devs with your feedback, because otherwise, you’re fanning the flames on something that probably isn’t actually burning. It’s just taking its time as it should. With all of the above said, it isn't the community's fault that we're not informed. The fault lies entirely with Bungie not educating people enough and this problem could be avoided. Reasons Why Things Suck I’ll close by giving my two cents on why the game isn’t perfect and never will be, just so you know where the community's frustrations should go.
The biggest reason that influences everything - Bungie is a company owned by a group of shareholders that will always force the studio to grow and provide more profit. With every extra dollar, the value of the company grows and the board of directors gets richer and because of the super predatory capitalism we live in now, Bungie has to justify every single decision with a monetary value. It's not the fault of the devs, they don't make much money themselves.
The game is massive and always online. I’m pretty confident that no other studio would be able to support Destiny for so long without the game completely crashing down. Technology always evolves and it’s almost impossible to keep a living game up to date, so some parts of the front end of the game will always suck because Bungie has to upkeep the back end we will never get to see.
The project has been going on for a decade, which leads to people wanting to naturally move on. Replacing team members on a living game is very difficult, which leads to problems and delays.
The community is not educated about the game enough, which is why I ended up writing this. The continuous cycle of negative outrage that comes from a lack of understanding damages the game because the devs are forced to deal with it without disclosing information. If people knew more, they could help Bungie, but no company that wants to make big profits will ever open up its communication because it would show just how many decisions are influenced by the search for profit.
That’s it, sorry for the length of this essay. I hope you learned something and let me know if you’d be interested in more stuff like this (takes on sunsetting, sandbox, etc.). I would like to give people more info so they don’t waste their precious time on stuff completely outside of their control and maybe educate people about the industry. I love the game and I hope you’ll appreciate it a bit more now. Edit 1: This post is not meant as a defense for the faults of the game or an excuse for bad decisions, it's meant as a resource to give you perspective and information. If you believe the game is not as good as it was promised to be or disagree with some design choices made, you are of course entitled to your own opinion, and there are quite a few things I myself absolutely hate in Destiny. I can't answer questions related to design on Destiny with confidence, because I don't work for Bungie and I won't speculate much on why certain decisions were made. I can give you my opinion on stuff like sunsetting based on my experience in another post, but ultimately it's only speculation with little benefit. All I will say is that there is always more stuff we don't know about the game than we do know and design should be judged in context. When it comes to questions related to Bungie's scummy tactics when it comes to monetization and bad communication, I agree with you, as I said above. Money is the biggest factor of why Destiny suffers and the best way for us to do anything about that is to stop buying it. I know it's a cliche statement, but it's true. And lastly, for the comments saying stuff like "shut up, Bungie sucks and you know it", please read what I said again and think about it. The devs most likely love the game just as much as you once did, if not much more. Edit 2: I'll add one thing that keeps popping up. It's clear that Destiny is a product developed for profit, so if your outlook is "I don't want to know about development, I'm just an unhappy consumer that didn't like this product", I agree as would most likely everybody that it's absolutely a valid stance, but that's not what my post was about. If that's how you see any product, you should tell the producer why you didn't like it if you care enough to do so and move on. The post is meant to inform people who don't want to move on from Destiny, especially those who continuously engage with the product from a place of understanding even if they don't have it, which wastes their time and does nothing for the product. If you don't like this game or any other game, it's absolutely OK and you should move on from playing it, complaining about things you don't want to understand won't help you achieve what you want and only makes the game worse. As I said above, the best way to show your disagreements is not to support the company and if you don't like Destiny, please stop playing it and take care of yourself. Your time is valuable, don't give it away to someone you don't agree with. Edit 3 This will be the last edit on this post. I appreciate all the awards and great discussions happening below, but holy cow did this get a lot of vitriol. I expected a lot of negativity, but it still surprised me. It's partially my fault for trying to talk about so much with not enough room so I'm sure I made a few mistakes. I'll reply to a few things that I want to make clear and then leave this alone, it's way too long anyway. If you see any malicious intent, attacks, arrogance, or "Bungie shilling" between the lines, I put none there, at least not on purpose. My goal was to inform, as I said right at the start, so if you see any other agenda, it's not there and my writing either wasn't clear enough, or you're looking for something that I didn't write. Take the post for what it is, a stranger on the internet telling you something you may not know from their experience. If you disagree with me, downvote the post and explain why, no need to insult anyone, you're once again wasting your precious time. I didn't mention management as a problem on Destiny, because I don't know enough about it. Leadership is very often a problem on any collaborative projects but calling someone out without the necessary data is exactly what I warned about in my post, so I won't comment on it, but feel free to disagree with me. Maybe you know more about the subject than I do and I'll be happy to read your reply. I never put myself up as an ultimate authority on the subject, all of this is just basics I thought hardcore fans should know and I communicated that. This post was already very long and I didn't have time, nor did I want to describe theory in detail, so insulting me over not explaining how scrum works in a post meant for people with no experience is not necessary. If you want to argue about production methodologies, my reasoning on examples given, and how healthy management looks like with me please feel free to message me and I'm sure we'll have a cool conversation, I'd love to hear about your experience from working in gaming. And that's it, I hope you got something out of this. Have a great day and see you around.
Riot dispels rumor that new champions make more money than VGUs
The past few days there have been a few posts discussing how we would only have Mundo rework this year and how disappointing that is. One of the common points of discussion has been that new champions generate more money than VGUs. People on both sides, those defending Riot and those criticizing Riot, used this as an excuse for why Riot prioritizes new champions over VGUs. Today Riot Reav3 confirmed the reason why new champions like Viego weren't delayed by Covid yet VGUs were. More interestingly though was his comments about VGUs and community sentiment: https://www.reddit.com/leagueoflegends/comments/lbohdz/only_one_league_vgu_will_be_released_this_yeaglwvmhq?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share&context=3
I'm not sure where this perception that Champs make so much more then VGUs came from. Some VGUS have made more money then new champs,(especially ones with big skin catalogs that get updated with the VGU) some niche champs make much less then the base line VGU makes. Also, after we VGU a champ we can still make skins for it, just like a new champ. At the end of the day it doesn't matter though. The Champions Team is part of the Gameplay initiative at Riot, whos main goal is engagement not revenue. Skins in general make waaaay more then any new champion ever makes, and it's not really a goal for the Champions team to make revenue. Our main goal is engagement, which is to say we want to make products that keep people playing LoL. One of the reasons we toned down VGUs was that we saw data that showed that whenever we do a VGU some amount of players quite the game completely, usually mains of the champ that don't like the rework. If we do A LOT of VGUs in a year like we did in the past, we actually start actively going against the main goal of champs team which is engagement since we would see less engagement with the game as a result of many players quitting due to the VGUs. Actually a couple years back when we did a lot of VGUS (and the class updates) we saw in player surveys at the time a pretty big upswing in players upset that we were changing way to much, way to fast that season. This has since come down a lot since we cut class updates and reduced VGUs. Now like I have mentioned in the past, we still want to do VGUs as we believe in the longevity of LoL and part of that is making sure the game feels modern and up to date, which means updating old champs that don't feel that way, but I dont think just saying "all players want vgu's" is a accurate statement, at least not according to real data we have from player surveys.
This comment addresses many of the common talking points that have been thrown around on the sub lately so I'd love to hear what the community thinks on this. After every VGU we always get mixed sentiment on the sub from players who love the update and players who hate it. Even the more generally subreddit accepted reworks like Warwick, Fiddlesticks, Mordekaiser, Urgot, etc have had campaigns against them to try and get a revert. Whats your thoughts? Should Riot prioritizes VGUs again even if it causes long time players to leave the game for good? Is Riot just playing it safe making new champions instead of reworking old ones (looking at you Seraphine) since so many players always say "Why does Riot have to delete my main rather than just making a new champion"?
I want you to understand this. Truly. I like GameStop. I like $GME. I believe in the long term plan (or what I/we think is the plan, anyway). I bought a Pro Membership and have put in orders through the app I downloaded. I think they'll kill 4Q earnings in March. I THINK GAMESTOP IS A GOOD COMPANY. I think Cohen and his team bring something to the table that will truly turn around the company. I think CNBC and particularly Melissa Lee can go suck an egg with their dismissiveness of the bull case, which they barely even pretend to have considered. I think the stock was and has been manipulated as fuck. My personal belief, which I require nobody else to share, is that Ryan Cohen and gang also still have more buying to do, and their buying alone will drive the price up. But my belief is that they have no interest in buying at this price, or they'd have done so. I believe they're waiting for the price to fall back toward the fair market value. And I believe they may force the issue by issuing more shares. That's what I believe, and why I'm not holding positions right now. I probably will in the future, but my personal opinion is the time is not right. I wrote these posts: https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/l6n4lj/on_leverage_supply_demand_how_we_got_here_gme/ https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/l6rsol/heres_the_letter_i_wrote_to_my_congressman/ (EDIT: lol I just realized both of those posts aren't visible since they were removed by the mods. They were pro-retail and pro-GME) I want to see people make money on this. Better yet, I WOULD LIKE TO MAKE MONEY ON THIS. Further, what Robinhood did, as well as Webull, Interactive Brokers, E*Trade, EToro, and tons of other brokerages did, was fucked up. Everybody here agrees. But you guys are actually fucking insane. We dont have a problem with the stock. We have a problem with YOU. Many of the people who have joined WSB in the past two weeks are brand new to investing. And that's okay! But the new people (7 million new versus 1.5 million old) have done the following:
Spent weeks downvoting every single ticker besides GME, AMC, BB, and NOK
Failed to realize there is no short squeeze on BB or NOK
Failed to realize the NOK spam was purely from bots
While you've realized there were bots that were bought, you missed (probably because you were spamming rocket emojis and gorillas) that the bots were spamming NOK.
Continually asked what stock WE are going to MANIPULATE next
Tried to educate the crowd on terminology you just googled ten minutes earlier.
I saw one person disagreeing with a long-time and well-respected poster here by telling other Apes to ignore that post, and to instead read a copied and pasted two paragraph blurb from investopedia that explained the effect of a stock split on a short position.
Made up securities laws and terminology that doesn't actually exist
Short ladders? Every time a price falls from a peak it's a short ladder? EVERY TIME?
You don't think that there's a natural reversion in the balance of supply & demand after a stock runs up thousands of percent in a matter of days?
With zero understanding of market mechanics, explaining to others why price action is fake
"Look how low volume is on this candle! It's not a real drop!"
Called people who have been involved in this play since Summer 2020 "paperhand pussies" for taking profits when the price of the stock went up 1,500%
Turned WallStreetBets into a political activism forum
Denying Reality
S3 partners is not lying to you. They and Ortex are consistently the best sources of difficult-to-obtain information on short interest. Just because they're reporting that short % of float is reduced FROM THE HIGHEST LEVEL THAT ANY STOCK HAS EVER HAD does not mean that they're lying to you.
Spammed low-effort memes and easily-Googleable questions on the new submissions
When your posts were taken down, you posted AGAIN
Accused anybody with an opposing opinion of being a hedge fund shill/bot
AGGRESSIVELY spamming to find buyers to help you get out of your huge negative position
I want to gag every time I see somebody write "I'm not a financial advisor" following a post that makes that very clear
Moving the goalposts
"YOU ARE HERE on the VW short squeeze graph!"
"We finished above $325! Gamma squeeze!" (Personal confession, I almost fell for this one and I'm glad I sold before the plummet).
"Ok so there was no gamma squeeze Monday but Tuesday is the day!"
"Ok we fell another 50% Tuesday but definitely Wednesday!"
"Fuck it let's just harrass investor relations to help us!"
Accused the mods of being paid off by hedge funds for doing what they've always done, which is remove shit-tier posts from the front page
which you then posted again
and again
Completely ignored the rules of our subreddit
Market Manipulation --
No Pump & Dumps -- pressuring other people to buy low float stocks (such as GME) so that you can drive up buying demand and sell when you've decreased your losses is a scam.
Political Bullshit -- If you think "it's not about the money" then get the fuck out because it is absolutely about the money.
No Bullshitting -- There are so many of you advising others on their trades (followed by "This is not financial advice, am ape") while you have no idea what the fuck you're talking about aside from something you just read on Reddit 5 minutes ago, which was posted by somebody else who had no idea what the fuck they were talking about, which was based on a tweet they read 10 minutes before that from someone who DID know what they were talking about, but OP misinterpreted the meaning.
Believe it or not, that's against the rules. Just say you dont know. Or say nothing. There's actually no need to spam.
Gain & Loss Posts - nobody wants to see your Loss on one-third of a share of AMC. Come on.
YOLO - Your investment in one-third of a share of AMC is not a YOLO. A YOLO is DFV leveraging up his entire $55,000 account with positions in a single ticker and letting it ride or die.
I can't even find the others that I had in mind using the search tool because the entire list of YOLO's and DD's is filled with GME and AMC karma farming.
You have formed a cult. You've now decided, amongst yourselves, that anybody who is not in on your play and wants to discuss other things is just a paid hedge fund shill. Do you think that's a healthy mindset? If this is the investment that you truly want to make, and you feel you have an understanding of the risks, then fucking let it rip. I hope it works out. Seriously, I want you to make money. I like Gain porn a lot more than Loss porn. But stop bullshitting. Stop brigading. Stop spamming. You're driving us nuts. https://preview.redd.it/h7xqt1iw97g61.jpg?width=466&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=bc87b50bb806d2bedbb5aa0c3fa1ff56d19660b2
How There is No Mathematical Way Shorts We're Covered for Jan 13th, 22nd, or 25th with GME's 69.75 Million Outstanding Shares
EDIT: This post is meant as a mathematical (~Middle School Algebra) exercise regarding GME stock and shorts. The title itself is meant to be the literal end as intended, and describes how it would be impossible for all shorts (estimated) to be covered, closed and completely done and finished, with only using the available outstanding shares on the specific days stated. Please note that I have made no comments on possible options that HF's can/did use asI DO NOT HAVE THAT DATA!I have, hopefully, labelled the assumptions I made to do these calculations, and pointed out some general assumptions,more shorts mean more gains, sarcastically, that do not always appear to be true in the given data.
These are just general findings, so chill the fuck out!
Please note that the below plots are all done using publicly available data from FINRA, Jan29th text file ( http://regsho.finra.org/CNMSshvol20210129.txt) Feb 5th text file (http://regsho.finra.org/CNMSshvol20210205.txt) regarding short volumes and Yahoo Finance for daily volume and GME daily prices. I promise you the long read is worth it, but the TLDR version is at the bottom in Figure 9. The majority of the text is needed to inform a general audience of how an estimate of over 70 million shorts a day was reached. Please help out if there are any huge oversights, or wrong calculations, in the comments below, as I'm not responding to nearly any chats these days due to all the bots wanting me to either join an illegal conspiracy to raise the price of silver, or just shady as fuck. Below is just a plot of the daily stock prices at the open and close of trading during regular hours for GME (source Yahoo Finance). Figure 1: No real new information from this plot that everyone doesn't already know. So as EVERYONE KNOWS, shorts can cause the price to rise in a given stock as the share of stock must be purchased, and with supply and demand, we aim for the heavens... Figure 2: Shorts and Short Exempts (note y-axis is in MILLIONS) as reported by FINRA during regular business hours. So let's do a quick sanity check. Looking at Figure 2, we see that on Jan 13th, over 40 MILLION shorts were executed! So if we check Figure 1on Jan 13th, we should expect to see that the price increased, which it did. Let's look at it a different way and plot the Closing Price minus the Opening Price to see just how much GME stock price changed each day. Figure 3: Overall change in stock price from open to close of GME. This plot seems to be dominated by the wild changes in price during late January/early February, so let's do a normalization trick by taking the above values and dividing them by their respective opening price that day. Figure 4: GME Price change relative to the opening price that day. Now in Figure 4 we can see the change in price relative to what it was starting out on that day. Again we see that Jan 13th increased, by over 50% that day. So let's make it easier for everyone and combine Figure 2 and Figure 5 to see both the total number of shorts executed, and the price change, for the same day. Figure 5: GME Price change relative to opening price, and the total number of shorts(both short and \"short exempts\") during Regular Business Hours, via FINRA NOW WE GOT A PLOT! Here we see both the change in price AND the number of shorts being executed for a single day. But what do we actually get from Figure 5? Jan 13th keeps with our hypothesis that MORE SHORTS MEANS MORE GAINS, but we don't see that across the board though.....? Jan 13th, Jan 22nd, Jan 26th, and Feb. 5th all show gains in price, and large number of shorts... 22 days I tracked, and 11 of those days have over 10million shorts during regular business hours, but only 4 days have gains of 20% or greater, and only 3 of THOSE days have gains over 50%.....?
Eye Raise:
Why hasn't GME reached the Moon with all the Rocket/Shorts Fuel yet?
-"The screaming cries of wallstreetbets" Hmmmmm, ok, well maybe we should also compare the overall volume of GME also and not just the shorts. The HYPE was/IS real over GME, and the world took notice. Let's see how the volume changed with it. First, just plot out the daily volume during regular business hours. Figure 6a: Regular Hours Daily Volume for GME, as reported by FINRA Alright, what do we get out of this plot...? Well, from Jan 13th and onward the volume shot THROUGH THE FUCKING ROOF, compared to early January. BUT WAIT A DAMN MINUTE?!?!?!? I didn't hear about the GME Hype Train until mid to late January!? From what I can find googling it seems that most major news outlets didn't really report on WSB/GME until Jan 21st, with serious mentions coming around Jan 24th weekend.
General Assumption I'M MAKING:
Most of the actual "Retail Investors" didn't join GME until weekend after Jan 22nd.
So, ASSUMING, the above, let's say the higher volume AFTER Jan 25th is from Urist McLossesMoney.
So what's with the crazy high volume before then? Is it from the insiders, the true chosen among us, the users in wallstreetbets that aren't bots?---NOPE. Almost certainly volume before Jan 22nd is from the hedge funds having to buy up the shorts they WAY THE FUCK overextended on! The "big bois" had to join us bottom feeders and buy up the stock to cover their 9000% short shares... maybe. Anyway we can check something else that to shine some light into what happens during the dark hours of trading... After Hours Volume. Figure 7: Regular Hours Trading compared against After Hours Trading for GME I DO LOVE PLOTS!!!! Here, I've taken the regular hours volume(again from FINRA) and subtracted it from the day's total volume, as reported by Yahoo Finance, to get the After Hours Volume. But again what stands out/what's the point of this plot?
After Hours Volume overtakes Regular Hours Volume Jan 22nd, and has remained where MOST of the action is going on!
GENERALLY, "Retail Investors" don't/CANT engage in after hours trading. And also, don't confuse what you do on your trading app at 2am with what broker-dealers and big bois are doing at 2am. We see around Jan 13th, after hour volume went above 50million, my general dumbass guess is because HF's needed to buy shares to cover shorts, and the few following days thereafter. Hmmmm. OK, let's take a step back and look shorts again.... Figure 8: Percentage of Regular Hour Short Volume as a Percentage of Total Volume during Regular Hours. Figure 8 just shows that over half of all volume, just during regular hours, are shorts. I don't know if there are numbers out there that show after hours shorts, if so PLEASE COMMENT IT!!!!!!
And because I can't get after hours short volume, we have to make a wild guess as to this next step.
So multiply Figure 8 by Figure 6b and you get.....
NOTE: Figure 9 is an estimate, but it's still a low-ball estimate.
ASSUMPTION Let's assume that after hours volume plays just like regular hours trading. I STILL HIGHLY FUCKING DOUBT THAT AND WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF AfterHoursVolume was higher than 75% of just shorts. Still, let's roll with Figure 9. Looking at Jan 13th, we estimate the number of shorts executed was...over 76 MILLION! And there are.... 69.75M shares outstanding... yep... ok... checks out! TLDR: Go to Figure 9, NOTE THAT IT'S AN ESTIMATE(and a low one at that), and see how it's impossible that they covered their shorts (ON THOSE DAYS) see edit below. Not financial advice, not advocating violence, not legal advice, just doing some math while my wife and her boyfriend watch The Crown. Edit 1: Yes, title is a typo. "...Shorts WE ARE Covered..." smh Edit 2: finra link seems to break for some with the https:// in the front, try it without and added direct links to text files. Also, no I did not include ways to cover shorts with options/bought/sold/traded/fails-to-deliveNoExpirationShortsJustPayInterest/t+3/etc.... since I already threw a god-awful amount of text at you and literally pointed to exact dates and I don't have Bloomberg/L50Data... Edit 3: Removed comment by request of user. Edit4: And thanks to u/jusmoua for getting the post back up! and Thank You Everyone For the Awards!
Boomer Old Money has bled and will get dirty going forward. Don’t be an idiot, Don’t poke the beehive with tweets, phone call harassment or callouts. Keep our head down and nose to the grindstone.
🚨🚨🚨Alert add - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2021-01-23/summers-says-markets-will-survive-reddit-traders-video - Crony Capitalism at its finest. They don’t want the competition on market forces or adapt to new technology for better researching and information sharing so now, they will lobby Congress to change the laws and they will do it quickly because they have the money to do it. Add 1 - please upvote and pin, make sure every retard reads this!!! It’s like a poker game, never show your cards, have poker face, and don’t ever count your money at the table. (Kenny Rogers i fucked up the quote but I’m retarded so whatever) Add 2- No to going “underground” either. We are an OPEN forum. People can come and go as they please just like a SIDEWALK OR STREET CORNER. Underground suggests organization lol. Fellow retards, many of you may not realize it but, the corporate world is fucking brutal and basically animalistic warfare. Don’t believe me? Read “Barbarians at the Gate” or watch the movie if you’re too retarded and you can’t read TV Movie Here. We made Citron and Melvin Bleed this week (Melvin had to get $1billion money loan Citron did it in 2018 on Tesla Loss) and they don’t like that. If you saw the letter they tweeted out you’d see why we gotta watch out Citron getting defensive laying the groundwork for a counter.. They are already setting up the groundwork to get law enforcement and SEC involved. They’ve alleged that some idiots allegedly sent death threats, harassed and spammed there office email and phones, etc. As of now, there is no proof that it happened but even so this is a forum and it’s not responsible for individual being assholes. Boomer old money will get dirty and ethically dubious to maintain power rather than innovate and compete. I promise you, They are already meeting with one another to figure a way to turn this forum off. Corporate espionage, hostile takeovers, and crowd-outs...all’s fair in love and war I guess. We’re a forum, not an organization or a firm, and we need to make that painfully clear to every fucker who says otherwise (boomers looking in and newbies here). Optics and a paper trail to boot will ensure WSB stays a forum for all to come and yell out their yolos, give DD, view loss porn, and brag about gains! This isn’t a firm, we’re basically a bunch of retards yelling on the street corner or at the NY Stock Exchange floor yelling to buy waffles (family guy scene - buy waffles aka this is us ) that’s not illegal, that’s actually how stocks have been in the past, where where one retard says “I hear business x has new shit, buy x!” Then everyone joins in the feeding frenzy to buy (or sell) x. We’re just a digital version. None of this twitter account bs that we thankfully shit them up ( we really need them to shut it down completely). Members here, do not go and poke the beehive. If a new member does this shit they may be an infiltrator from the firm trying to sabotage us from within so be on the lookout for other people’s behavior. Let’s play this smart, keep comments and shut here and let’s all go to infinite and beyond! 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
Bitcoin and speculative stock investing are dark mirrors of each other and the whole system is rotten.
Hey guys. Not entirely sure if this is the right place for this post, but here goes. Since the GameStop short squeeze and the Elon Musk Bitcoin pump happened, there's been a lot on my mind about both Bitcoin and regular stocks and I need to get this off my chest. One thing above all has really been bothering me and I couldn't put it into words until recently: how rotten the whole system is and how it allows a minority to earn enough money to never need to work again. Whether it's Bitcoin or speculative stocks, it works out very similarly. People throw money and hope they get lucky, no better than any gambling. When they win, it's not because they were smarter or did some great service to society. They only had to install an app on their phone, go through some KYC and throw money at their crypto or stock of choice. Money is a currency used to determine how much access to society's resources someone has. The more money you have, the more resources you can access. This can be better apartments, lambos, yachts, mansions, whatever. The winners of crypto or stocks are just gamblers, they get a disproportionately high share of society's resources without creating anything of value. And then there's people like me. I work a day job, working hard every day and trying to improve my skills, hoping to get recognized and achieve some measure of success in life, yet I get a pittance while all these gamblers win big. To be clear here, I'm not salty because I didn't invest money or lost it. I don't believe in either speculative stock investing or crypto "investing". I realize that speculative investments have a far higher chance to lose money, and losing money can really hurt you and your life prospects. With both Bitcoin and speculative stock investing, what happens in practice isn't very different. They're glorified casinos and the winners are set for life, and it really grinds my gears because they didn't do anything to earn it, while I'm sitting at a desk day in and day out, working hard yet barely getting anything out of it. But what's even worse is that the winners' wealth is created through exploitative means. For someone to win money in the casinos, someone else has to lose. Usually a lot of someones. And the losers? They can be drastically affected by their loss. It's even more sad when you realize that most of them were suckered into playing the game with false promises: "Bitcoin/Gamestop is guaranteed to moon! Invest now and you'll never need to work again!" and so on. Then when things fail and the hysteria ends, a lot of people are left holding the bag. Some turn to substance abuse, others commit suicie, yet others double down and throw more money at the casino in the vain hopes that they'll win the next time. And even if speculative investments had a 50% or higher chance of making you a winner, what would that mean for our society? I'm no economist, but I'm pretty sure that our society would start running low on resources as people buy more luxuries they couldn't afford before and this would result in price inflation. Which in the long-term, would nullify the winners' wealth and make everyone else worse off. It's all so upsetting, and very sad what our society really values. Sorry if this was too long or rambly, but I really needed to get this off my chest. Let me know what you think in the comments. Edit: This might not have been clear to some, but I'm not a Bitcoin supporter. I know how it works and why it's terrible. Edit 2: Well, my free day of shitposting is ending, so I'm wrapping up this thread. Thank you all so much for your responses! There were many interesting discussions, even with coiners. I might respond more tomorrow, but not as much as today.
MVIS: Shiny Laser Go Pew ⚡ No But Seriously They Are Gonna Take Over The LiDAR Industry
So, the day has come, and MicroVision's market cap is finally big enough so that you won't get banned for mentioning it on WSB. But what is it? Why have they seen an 800%+ increase in three months? Where are they headed? Allow me to explain. About Them MicroVision, Inc. (MVIS) makes futuristic-as-fuck laser technology that's used in self driving cars and augmented reality headsets. This already sets them apart from a major competitors like Velodyne (VLDR), which focuses solely on LiDAR for self driving cars. Sumit Sharma, the CEO, was head of operations at Google's Project GLASS and has worked to map hardware development at Motorola, also worked at Jawbone. Source Why have they been increasing 800% in three months while similar companies in the same sector see a fraction of that gain? Because their tech is much more advanced than the competition, and they were (are) criminally undervalued. The reason they're so undervalued is because the first thing hedge funds see when they research a potential investment is the balance sheet, and on paper MVIS looks like shit. (Low assets, high liabilities) Even I saw the movement back in December, did some research, and was like "Wtf is this? I need to get puts" But once you do research into their product, who their customers are, and the future of the industry that they are involved in, you see that MicroVision is a turnaround story similar to that of Plug Power; both are 90's futuristic companies that people got way too excited about in 2000, have struggled to make it to 2020, but now are about to finally have their heyday. And they got a $13 million equity facility (loan) in December that greatly improved their balance sheet, making them appeal to institutions, and bringing Vanguard and Blackrock to invest in MVIS days later. I actually had a hedge fund manager tell me that MVIS was doomed to run out of cash in Q1 2020, but if they secured funds then they would have a lot of potential. I go over that in the comments. MVIS (left) vs PLUG (right) 1990's until present Anyways, what is this "much more advanced" technology? I'll just let this chart do the talking: The MicroVision Consumer LIDAR being compared here isn't even their model designed for self-driving cars, that will be coming in April. The resolution it can take as input/second, the points per second, is key when it comes to how clearly the LiDAR sensor can see, how accurately it can identify what it is seeing, and how quickly it can react. That chart is from 2 years ago and still the best resolution Velodyne can provide today is only 4,800,000 pps in their most advanced model, the "Alpha Prime"
3D Lidar Data Points Generated 2- Single Return Mode: ~ 2,400,000 points per second- Dual Return Mode: ~ 4,800,000 points per second.
VLDR has not publicly announced a price for their Alpha Prime yet, but historically their top of the line devices cost $75,000. I have seen unsourced numbers of the Alpha Prime costing $100,000. That was last year, will probably be brought down to be more reasonable for automakers to purchase. They did announce a $500 model called the Velarray H800 in November, but the only thing they said about its pps resolution is that its "outstanding"... lol. As for Luminar (LAZR), they will launch the new model "Iris" in 2022, which will cost about $1,000: (the same price as MicroVision's device to be revealed in April). It will also only operate at 10Hz. This is similar to playing a racing game at 10FPS. If you know anything about video games, you know that this is unplayable.
Iris will cost less than $1,000 per unit for production vehicles seeking serious autonomy, and for $500 you can get a more limited version for more limited purposes like driver assistance, or ADAS. Luminar says Iris is 'slated to launch commercially on production vehicles beginning in 2022,' but that doesn't mean necessarily that it's shipping to customers right now. The company is negotiating more than a billion dollars in contracts at present, a representative told me, and 2022 would be the earliest that vehicles with Iris could be made available.
A lengthy post has been make comparing Luminar's resolutions with MicroVision's, which was not easy to calculate because Luminar said their resolution was "300dpi/spdeg", a statistic that is incomprehensible for shareholders because its not the common specification of millions (3D) points per second. Here's the math, I sum it all up at the bottom:
Luminar's Hydra claims resolution of "up to 200 points per square degree" and a FOV of 120° x 30° (degrees). (and 300 points for Iris, the one coming in 2022.) However, the vertical FOV can be configured from 1° to 30° , which likely explains the use of "up to" in the resolution numbers. Generally, as FOV expands, resolution shrinks, assuming a constant pixel stream. This is why Alex Kipman made such a big deal about MSFT maintaining resolution in Hololens 2(YT links aren't allowed apparently) while expanding FOV because it required more pixels to do so. Specifically, regarding Luminar, is 200 points per square degree available when FOV is at the maximum 120° x 30°? Or is it available only at a lesser FOV such as, for example, 120° x 5°? The use of "up to" suggests the latter. Even assuming 200 points per square degree at 120° x 30° is available, which is not conceded given the stated "up to", that would yield a total resolution of 720,000 points. MVIS claims capacity in excess of 20M points per second. At a resolution of 720,000 points, Luminar would require a frame rate of 27.7 Hz to equal 20M points per second. Luminar's specs do not suggest that its technology is capable of such a high frame rate at this resolution. This is not surprising given it does not use MEMS micromirrors but something more "mechanical" including, as per a recent patent, spindles and a drive belt (1) At video time 19:56, Luminar compares the specs of its Iris product to industry requirements. The graphic reveals that Luminar's 2022 production lidar, Iris, will support resolution of 300 points per square degree at 10 Hz. Assuming that resolution applies to the entire FOV of 120 x 30 degrees and not just a portion of the FOV, that would imply a points per second value of 120 x 30 x 300 x 10 Hz = 10.8M points per second. If the 300 points/ sq. deg applies only to a smaller FOV, the points per second figure would be proportionally smaller. Microvision claims 20M points per second for its current MEMS lidar. The company also advises that its technology is capable of more than 20M points/sec.
TLDR: The best case scenario for Luminar is that their 2022 model will have 10.8 million pps, but in reality its probably much lower than that because of FOV configurations, careful wording by press releases, and Hz limitations. Additional Interesting insight on Luminar and their tech lagging behind is in the comments, this post is long enough already. Again the MicroVision Consumer LIDAR (specifications) being used for comparison here isn't even their model designed for self-driving cars. Their device specialized for cars, the "1st gen Long Range LiDAR (LRL) Sensor", will be coming in April.
We expect our 1st generation LRL Sensor to have range of at least 250 meters and the highest resolution at range of any lidar with 340 vertical lines up to 250 meters, 568 vertical lines up to 120 meters and 944 vertical lines up to 60 meters. This equatesto 520 points per square degree.
(For those who read the math on LAZR, notice he doesn't say up to) It testing is successful, the 1st Generation LRL Sensor will be able to calculate velocity of objects relative to itself, and be able to be used in Level 3 and Level 4 self-driving applications
Our LRL Sensor will also output velocity of moving objects relative to an ego vehicle across our dynamic field of view in real-time 30 Hz sensor output. This sensor would accelerate development of Level 3 (L3) autonomous safety and Level 4 (L4) autonomous driving features that are important to potential customers and interested parties.
What is Level 3 and Level 4 autonomous driving? https://preview.redd.it/n4c8831l9dh61.png?width=848&format=png&auto=webp&s=0652984c72da3159b53a4fc4058c9d9e33cc6b05 Level 1 is feet off, level 2 is hands off, level 3 is eyes off, level 4 is mind off, and level 5 is full passenger (you can sit in the back). So basically, they have that 2045 technology today, while everyone else is trying to play catch-up. How is it so advanced? It all lies in the high resolution of the laser sensors.
I've seen MVIS's LiDAR in action at a shareholder meeting. It can recognize people. This has been described on MicroVision's conference calls, and has been described with significant additional safety and convenience features. This could identify individual people Can distinguish between pets and people (or YOUR pet and the neighbors pet) Can distinguish between normal behaviors and strange things that could be of concern Could save face-scans of intruders and allow intruders to be identified later Source
LiDAR is the only sensor that gives you resolution at range: the ability to get very fine and very accurate detection of objects in space.
that's why Teslas use radar systems in addition to their cameras, still not good enough to prevent fatalities on the road using Tesla's "full self-driving" software. Also, cameras struggle with light glare, weather, and 3D imaging, while LiDAR fixes all those issues. The main advantage of cameras are their resolution, and MicroVision is bridging the gap. So, will testing be successful?
We expect the capability of our LRL Sensor to meet or exceed OEM requirements, based on technology we have scaled multiple times over the last decade, as being a very strong strategic advantage. (Same source)
This product has been getting fine tuned for years and I am personally confident that they will be able to outperform in their testing. Demonstration(YT links aren't allowed apparently) of their consumer LiDAR product from 2018 (make sure your quality is all the way up). Growing Industry The self-driving cars market is expected to reach 220.44 billion dollars by 2025. This includes taxi, civil, public transport, heavy duty trucks, ride shares, and ride hail (UBER - 72 B mkt cap) applications. Traffic Accidents in the US aloneCost 871 Billion A Year, even just yesterday there was an insane pileup on the I-35W highway in Texas that killed 6, injured 36, and damaged 133 vehicles. Not only self-driven cars need LiDAR. In a few years, as soon as MicroVision's 1st Gen LRL is available, LiDAR systems will certainly become mandatory for (still) human-controlled cars to avoid collisions. This tech could become as revolutionary and successful as airbags. Airbags are a 37.3 billion dollar industry. If only 10% of the cars produced annually contain four Microvision LRL systems, this will result in a volume of 364 million units in ten years. (9.1 million cars * 4 modules * 10 years) And this is a conservative calculation, both a higher market share, more cars produced, and more modules per car are conceivable. At least 4 LRL devices will be necessary to establish a \"circle of safety.\" Augmented Reality The Hololens 2 is an example of a Virtual Reality Device (VRD) manufactured by Microsoft that uses MicroVision MEMS Laser Scanning display modules inside. NASA & Lockeed Martin using Hololens (Video)(YT links aren't allowed apparently)
'When a technician puts on the Hololens, they instantly see the work instruction, instead of having to go through stacks of rectangular data, whether its paper or another form of a screen'... 'We see a reduction in cost, increases in quality'... 'What we've found is we can take an 8 hour activity and reduce it down to 45 minutes'... 'We haven't had a single error that's been documented'...
This new GPS system comes equipped with an augmented reality heads-up-display (HUD) that attaches directly to your sun visor. This laser-projected GPS micro-display, developed in collaboration with MicroVision, makes it appear that your route directions show directly on top of the road, letting you keep your eyes on the road at the same time.
Cook was asked about what he expects to be the biggest tech developments in the next five to 10 years. Cook’s response made it clear that he sees augmented reality as the future, calling it the “next big thing.”
While attending a trauma call in the early stages of the pandemic, Mr Kinross noticed that 29 people were working in close proximity. He realized the established way of working would have to change dramatically.
The technician is then linked with a Mercedes-Benz specialist working remotely who can see what the tech sees and communicate in real-time -- manipulating the holographic information with annotations, highlighting areas of focus, pointing at things in the real world and presenting documents and service manuals.
In the next few years, business verticals will be possible in the markets for smart glasses (Video)(YT links aren't allowed apparently) and projections with touchless input(YT links aren't allowed apparently) and gesture control. For example, an eyewear company could develop the smallest and lightest smart glasses device on the market using the chip in that smart glasses video.
In the MicroVision Augmented Reality video, for example, we share a potential module design using our existing MEMS technology platform that could offer the lightest, smallest in volume, low power module with up to 40 degrees field of view packaged into eye wear that resembles frames currently accepted in the market. I believe one could see how our module in the design example would be compelling for a mass-market product.Source
Patents MicroVision has 484 patents granted and pending. This was enough to get them on the Ocean Tomo 300 Patent Value Index. What is that you ask?
The Ocean Tomo 300® Patent Value Index includes the top value companies of the broad- market Ocean Tomo 300® Patent Index, as determined by the price-to-book ratio, and is diversified across market capitalization. It is the industry’s first value index based on the value of intellectual property and represents a portfolio of 60 companies with the highest innovation ratio (i.e., patent maintenance value relative to book value). Source
This index also outperforms the Russel 1000 and the S&P 500. Their intellectual property includes in-house developed custom MEMS, custom optics, proprietary digital and analog silicon chips, embedded real-time firmware and software, manufacturing processes, custom automation and strategic partnerships that allow them to operate in a sleek model. MicroVision patents and products therefore serve many future markets:
Whoever has the MicroVision technology may be able to eliminate the competition or demand license fees from them. Or the other way around: Whoever does not buy the technology can be excluded from markets. Therefore, bidding competition may arise to gain access to the market. Whoever has the best LiDAR system for cars will also be able to supply other components and software to car manufacturers. The car manufacturer who has the best LiDAR system has a big advantage over the competition. All Notable Competition: Velodyne LiDAR, Luminar, Sense Photonics, Robosense, Valeo, SureStar MicroVision: founded in 1993 Velodyne Lidar VLDR: founded in 1983, but as a subwoofer company 😂 and only got into LiDAR in 2005 LAZR: founded in 2012 Non-Public: Valeo: Founded in 1998 Robosense: Founded in 2014 SureStar: Founded in 2005 Basically, MVIS is all these other companies' daddy. They have been working on LiDAR for almost 30 years and it shows, just imagine what they will be able to develop in a few years with more funding. https://preview.redd.it/eh5csdcz9dh61.png?width=1600&format=png&auto=webp&s=068fe6f5508e693ace5c6c56d4d2a5d9294836fb Insider Activity MicroVision is very transparent with its inner workings of the company, you can easily reach out to them on their website under "Investors." One of many conferences held with Vice President David Westgor, investor relations manager Dave Allen, and investors of MVIS revealed:
As to the employee incentive plan, Steve Holt made the point that in his 7 years of experience (I think it was) with MVIS, NO EMPLOYEE had actually ever cashed out in the money options.
Case in point, on December 1s, 2020, the day after she joined the team, Judith Curran was paid with 3 million dollars worth of $3 calls expiring in 2022, and she has not cashed out. On Yahoo it reports that the last insider sale was in 2014. Institutional Investments For reasons stated earlier, institutions have been late to the game on this one, but now are starting to get on the rocket ship before it takes off. MVIS is now the largest holding in the S&P Kensho Moonshots Index, (KMOONP), which is literally an ETF of stocks that are going go the moon 🌙 . Blackrock purchased 2.44 million shares on December 31, 2020. Vanguard purchased 6.61 million shares on the same day. Recent Events MVIS's stagnation really started to break on December 1st 2020, with MVIS when former Ford Executive Judith Curran was added to MVIS's board of directors.
Curran is an accomplished senior automotive executive with over 30 years of experience in vehicle program, engineering and technology leadership. Curran has a strong record of leading innovation at Ford Motor Company where she served in a number of executive positions including Director of Technology Strategy, where she developed the cross-vehicle global strategy for key new technologies including assisted driving, infotainment, new electrical architectures, and connectivity.
Doesn't take a genius to figure out they were about to ride the EV wave, and were appointing the right people to be poised to do so. Eight days later on December 8th 2020, the US Congress approved approximately $700M for the roll-out of IVAS in 2021. 7 days after that on December 15th, MVIS broke $4 for the first time in nine years. December 29, 2020: MicroVision Announces $13 Million At-the-Market Equity Facility (this is huge for improving balance sheet and attracting hedge funds/institutional ownership)
So far, our team remains on track to complete our Long Range Lidar sensor sample in April 2021. We believe this financing will further solidify our balance sheet as we remain committed to pursuing strategic alternatives and establishing value for our shareholders,” said Sumit Sharma, MicroVision Chief Executive Officer. “We expect a stronger balance sheet will provide the Company with runway through 2021 and into the first quarter of 2022 to enable us to continue development of our lidar sensor while pursuing strategic alternatives,” said Steve Holt, MicroVision Chief Financial Officer.
December 31: Vanguard adds 6.6 million shares, Blackrock adds adds 2.4. January 20, 2021: Apple CEO Tim Cook says Augmented Reality is the "Next Big Thing." Feb 2, 2021 YooToob stock analyst Deadnsyde covers(YT links aren't allowed apparently) MVIS, causing the beginning of a large breakout past $8. Feb 4: MicroVision granted patent (WSB bot is blocking source from being posted- thinks it contains a ticker), essentially lidar on a chip, this patent in particular is huge. (solid state lidar) Feb 10: Cramer mentions MVIS, says LIDAR is one of three battlegrounds for EV competition. Feb 10 after hours: MVIS announces Progress on Automotive Long Range LiDAR, saying “We expect MicroVision’s Long Range Lidar Sensor, (LRL Sensor) which has been in development for over two years, to meet or exceed requirements established by OEMs for autonomous safety and autonomous driving features,” said Sumit Sharma, Chief Executive Officer of MicroVision. Feb 11: Volkswagen and Microsoft team up on automated driving (potential for MVIS to get involved). Talent at MicroVision Sumit Sharma became the CEO in February of 2020, he is a mechanical engineer that has been with MVIS for five years after having been the head of operations at Google Project Glass, and working for Motorola and Jawbone. Dr. Mark Spitzer is on the board of directors having previously worked at Google X, Darpa, Kopin and having founded Myvu and Photonic Glass. Judy Curran joined the board this year after spending 30 years at Ford, where she was the Director of Technical Strategy. She is also the Head of Global Automotive Strategy for Ansys, a simulation software company that works with ADAS systems. Technical analysis Resistance at 46.75, 123. 39, and 204. 23, could turn to supports. Moving Average Analysis: On February 28, 2020, Market Cap of PLUG was 1.32B, on this date the 120 day MA touches the 8y moving average. 11 months later, PLUG has a market cap of 33.79B, an increase of 2459%. On September 3, 2020, Market Cap of MVIS was 0.21B, on this date 120 day MA touches the 8y moving average. 5 months later, MVIS has a market cap of 2.77B an increase of 1219%. 6 months forward price target: $34.348B Conclusion/Valuation/TLDR LAZR is currently valued at 12.22B VLDR at 3.92B MVIS at 2.77B MicroVision offers a quantitatively much higher performance product than both of its competitor companies. Because of their lack of focus on augmented reality technologies, competitors are not likely to have a future in the markets of smart glasses, healthcare, engineering, military equipment, GPS safety, entertainment, and interactive projectors. They are involved in an industry that is currently at an inflection point, due to grow massively in the near future. Their high number of extremely advanced patents will bring in significant revenue for the company in the coming years. I have never seen a company with such low insider selling, that the last case of a sale was in 2014. Institutional investors are piling in as MicroVision's balance sheet improves and they near the April LRL sensor test date, which has a high likelihood of being a success. I think this stock should currently be valued at 20 Billion dollars, taking all of this into account, and expect it to rise drastically over the next few years. This is not financial advice, I am not a financial advisor, do your own research before believing some retard on the internet. Positions: 300 shares, $19 call 5/21, $20 call 3/19, $31 call 2/19(FD), $28 call 2/19, $24 call 2/19.
Friday 1/29/21 GME Expiry Date Means Nothing. Don't buy into the hype - shorts aren't just afraid of this Friday. Come down the rabbit hole with me.
Note: I am mostly summarizing the aggregate of explanations currently floating around about the 1/29/21 option expiry date. I don't claim any knowledge. This is not investment advice. Do your own research, don't invest what you can't afford to lose, and if something feels wrong it probably is. TL;DR: This isn't about options (yet), it's about shares, and Institutional Investors are playing a dangerous game by convincing us (some of y'all have bought in without realizing it) that a magical short squeeze has some 3-day time limit, that Friday is somehow the end game, and are hoping that when investors don't see a $5,000 short squeeze by next week they will fold and take their gains at a "reasonable" double-digit stock price. Don't believe them. They can survive through mid-late February before the true short squeeze smashes upward. And I'll be ready. I like this stock and believe in it's long term potential, and I think it's undervalued. THESIS: If institutional investors can (1) convince retail investors to sell stock at low prices and (2) convince their lenders to wait, then the 0.01% get richer. JUSTIFICATION: There is so much public sentiment (passion, enthusiasm, excitement, anger, whatever) surrounding short (~1 day) price movements*, and Friday's expiring options (these are also end of month contracts), that it seems like big clever money may be trying to artificially create a sort of bear trap for shareholders. Whatever happens in the next week or so (crest to $700? crash to $60?) almost means nothing in the long term, but could fool investors into giving these guys CHEAP ways out of their 140% float short interest positions. Remember, these are people who have been dumping tons of money for a long time, shorting the stock when it was in the single digits. They've been hoping for a GameStop bankruptcy, and manufacturing one as best they can. IT'S DIFFERENT THIS TIME: Remember the VW infinite squeeze, where we saw weeks of crazy price movement before the actual peak. And that is a mild case, as most of the shares were held by an entity with legal, competitive, and strategic reasons and obligations forcing them to hold shares and artificially reducing the float, or available shares for trading. This reduced supply caused the short squeeze. However, this time around we've got a huge short interest, much much larger by comparison than that from VW's 2008 peak, to the tune of 140% of shares available for trading (float). They've massively overreached, and are going to pay the price for that. But they haven't yet. SO YOU'RE SAYING THERE'S A CHANCE: This time, however, if the big dogs can shake shareholders hard enough, weak links break and paper hands fold and a fantastic long term play starts to seem out of reach. The market manipulation wins. DARE TO BELIEVE: Unfortunately for the shorts, GME has real long term prospects to revolutionize the gaming industry for consumers, and now has the attention and potential equity momentum (if they play it smart, which I think the new leadership will) to make this a reality. From that link above:
In GME's case the rise in the stock price itself will likely result in fundamental improvements to the underlying economic metrics of the company.
I believe. However, if the shorts can fight, sneak, manipulate, and otherwise adjust the share price down this week then they start to see light at the end of the tunnel. They make 2-3 week plans for doing the same thing. For them, prices don't have to bottom back out, they just have to convince enough people to sell that they buy thrmselves a few weeks before a short squeeze really takes them all under. *Some of this price movement is shorts covering, but much is actual legitimate investment between retail investors and other institutional investors who have seen the light. Remember, TSLA didn't get to where it is because one company made some bad short positions. But if GME shorts can convince everyone that a 3-day squeeze is all they get until GME crashes to some "normal" level, then they win. Everyone getting hyped about Friday is playing into their hands. Yeah maybe some will need to take gains after a Friday pop, but a smart long-term hold position on GME is what they're really afraid of. And I want to be a shareholder in GME's future, as many wanted to be with TSLA. And sure, maybe if everyone else thinks that way too, there may be an incidental short squeeze that wrecks the uber wealthy in mid-late February along the way. Again, I am not claiming to be knowledgeable or insightful, just commenting my best guesses. Nobody knows the future. This is not investing advice. 🚀
My uncle left me a shifty little bar in his will. The employees here sleep in the backroom.
My uncle was an odd, lonely man. That one guy you try to avoid at family reunions, the one nobody knows too well but loves to talk about nonetheless. I think he liked me best because I never really enjoyed badmouthing him. I wouldn't say we were close, but we tolerated one another. At least that's how it was when I was little, we never bothered to stay in contact. I forgot about him by the time I left home. That's why the news of his death caught me completely by surprise. Uncle Mack was alone in his apartment when he had a heart attack causing cardiac arrest. He fell unconscious and died within minutes. Then there was me at the time. I had just flunked out of college and the only thing I was actually good at was playing video games. When I was contacted by Mack's lawyer, I was even more shocked. Mack had left me three things: a box of sorted letters addressed to me, all the money he used to own, which to me was a lot, and his bar–the one he had inherited from his father and had worked at all his life. I'll be frank, I had no idea what to do with the bar but I knew from the very start I'd take it over. I felt kind of honored–this had basically been Uncle Mack's entire life and he was giving it to me of all people. Sure, from what I knew there hadn't been many friends or loved ones in his life to choose from, but it was still flattering to me. Once I read the first letter, I was even more convinced. "Hi Giulia, If you're reading this, my bad eating habits have probably caught up to me. Or maybe someone killed me, who knows. As of me writing this, you're fifteen years old. You were the only one to talk to me at the family reunion today. Not for long, but more than just an awkward hello. I notice these things and I appreciate it. That's why I'm trusting you with the most important task anyone in this family is ever going to offer you. You are going to take over my bar. Besides, knowing you, you're not gonna have much of a career anyways, so you might as well. Once you're done reading this, please go to the bar at your earliest convenience. Take the box of letters with you and stash it away somewhere there. It has some valuable advice you're gonna need down the line. In fact, you will need to read the second letter right after your arrival. You'll find my employees are a bit special. Anyways, I hope you're doing alright, however this letter finds you. You're a good kid, Lia. Always have been. Besides, the only person you could possibly disappoint by screwing this up is dead so there's no pressure to impress. Sincerely, Your Uncle Mack." I wiped my eyes. They had actually gotten a bit watery while I was reading the letter. I folded the letter and tucked it back into the box before grabbing my coat and bag. Mack's bar was a train ride and a thirty-minute walk away from my parents' place, which is where I was residing at the moment. I figured I would probably have to look for a place close to the bar if I really would start working there full time. When I finally arrived at the establishment, it looked almost exactly the way I had expected. It was just another wall in the row of buildings on the street off to the side from the inner city's market square. A large, bright red double door with a neon sign reading "The New Saloon" above it. It would probably glow if I'd find out how to switch it on. At least I hoped it would glow. It felt weird, unlocking the door and opening it for the first time, all on my own. Entering and looking around inside felt even weirder. The New Saloon was your typical old-style dive bar. Even completely empty it looked overcrowded. The fabric of the cushion seats was stained and frayed, the walls behind and in front of the counter were plastered with neon beer signs and large framed photos of people I didn't know, some were even in black and white. The floors were dirty and my heels stuck to them when I walked further in. This place was small, shabby and smelly and I loved it. It was so strange but I suddenly just felt like this bar was mine, and that I needed to take care of it and protect it. Remembering what Mack had told me in his first letter, I pulled the second one out from the box and unfolded it. "Hi Giulia, If you're reading this, you're probably at the bar for the very first time! How do you like it? Let me guess, it's ugly and gross but it instantly started growing on you? Don't worry, it's about to get a lot weirder. You'll find the entrance to the backroom behind the counter. The lightswitch is on the inside of the wall, make sure to turn it on before you head inside because there's stairs leading down right behind the door. It's a death trap. Once you're in there, stand in the middle of the room. Stay away from the walls. You may then say out loud the following words: Spirits of this house, by the power of the spell that has bound you I command you to serve. You'll see what happens next. Whatever happens, keep in mind you can order them around. When all the work is done, simply tell them to go back into their room. You've got this. Sincerely, Your Uncle Mack." I frowned. That was odd. Was this the prelude to some kind of joke? I walked over to the door behind the counter and pressed down the handle. It swung open with a loud creaking noise and I began to grope around for the lightswitch. A single light bulb down in the backroom came flickering on and I proceeded down the rickety wooden stairs. No bannisters. Risky, especially with the shoes I was wearing. By the time I had reached the middle of the room, my heart was already beating faster than it should. Still, if this was a prank, Mack had been planning it for over five years, and I was not about to ruin it. Besides, no one was watching anyways. I cleared my throat. "Spirits of this house…" I began, a giggle swinging along in my voice. "By the power of the spell that has bound you I command you to serve." Nothing. Not a single sound for five whole seconds. I looked around the room. It was completely empty, except for a single door in the wall across from me. Maybe I had been supposed to say it in whatever room was behind that one? Just as I was about to walk over to it, a loud noise came from one of the walls to the side. I spun around to find that it had cracked open. Bits of it were beginning to crumble to the floor as the tear widened. I stared at it with my mouth agape, frozen in place and incapable of comprehending what I was seeing there. From the crack, a set of long, bony pale fingers reached out into the room, gripping the inside of the wall. My throat was too dry to produce a proper scream, but I couldn't contain a gasp as I staggered backwards until my back met with the other wall behind me. It was then that I felt cold palms rubbing against my neck and hands closing around my shoulders from behind. This time, I shrieked. I whirled around again only to see that there was a hole there too, long, skinny arms slowly moving forward from it, grabbing at me, searching for me. I glanced around the room frantically. Holes had opened in basically every spare spot. I counted four sets of arms pulling themselves out into the light, followed by similarly slender upper bodies. By the time I finally thought to run back up the stairs and save myself, the people from inside the walls were standing in the backroom, fully emerged from their dark hideouts. I didn't risk another look at them. When I finally reached the top stair, I dashed back into the bar and slammed the door shut behind me. I pressed myself up against it just to keep standing. My knees had grown weak beneath me and I was panting heavily, my mind racing. Then I heard them; slow, light footsteps making their way up the staircase and stop on top of it. I heard calm, steady breathing coming from the other side of the door. I tensed up and shifted my weight on my feet, leaning up against it to keep whomever was in there from getting out. I was sure this person would start to try pushing it open, but to my surprise, nothing happened. Instead, a voice rang out from inside. "Excuse me, who are you exactly?" It was a man's voice. I had expected something like a growl, or a hiss, or the groans of some decomposing zombie, but this was distinctly more articulate. It sounded almost polite. I didn't know what to do other than respond. "Giulia," I stammered. "Giulia?" The man sounded surprised. "What about Mack? Wait, if you're here…" He sounded quite sad now. "Mack's dead, isn't he?" "Yes," I replied quietly. "His heart stopped." "That's… good God." He fell silent and I heard him utter a shaky sigh, almost like a sob. "I'm sorry, would you give me a moment? I need to tell the others." "Go ahead," I murmured. "Nevermind, they heard us. So, will you let us out now or…?" "Who are you? Why were you in there?" "We work here, actually. My name is Andrik… I do most of the organizing here. I take care of the accounting, our profits, our spendings; I place the orders on most of what we need. Back here with me, I've got Bo, who is our bouncer, and Danika and May, both waitresses." "You work here?" I repeated. "And you live in the walls? After your shift is over, do you just go down there and melt into the room or what?" I couldn't help but let out a nervous chuckle at the mental image. This was just too absurd. At least I was breathing normally now. "Pretty much, yes." I shook my head. "What are you?" "Well, to explain that you would have to go exactly a hundred and twenty-two years back so it's a long story," Andrik replied. "All you need to know for now is that if you let us out, we'll get the bar up and running right away. We've been working under Mack ever since he took over this place though, so you'll have to excuse us if we're a bit gloomy." "No, that's fine," I muttered, slowly turning away from the door and carefully pulling it open. The man in front of me was of normal height, slender and looked to be in his thirties. Despite being dressed in jeans and a simple black t-shirt with the bar's name printed on it in white, swirly letters, he had a very official look to him. Maybe it was the way he stood, straight as a rod with a friendly yet matter-of-fact smile on his face. "Thank you," he said. Turning back to the room, he raised his voice. "You heard it everyone, Mack might be gone and while that's a downer, our work isn't over; so get yourselves up here and let's get this going again!" His tone carried the flat motivation the coach of a youth sports team might have. Three more people emerged from the backroom, all dressed exactly like Andrik, all of them that same content little grin on their lips. They walked by me offering polite greetings; the first one, a large, bulky guy giving me a curt nod and the two women that followed smiling brightly. The girls were a little younger than Andrik, maybe in their late twenties. Both had blond hair hanging down their shoulders in wavy pigtails. That first night the bar was open, I merely watched the backroom people work, following them around while they ignored me. It was eerie. They looked almost like automated mannequins, going about their routine by sticking to preplanned paths; like there were set directions painted somewhere I couldn't see. I soon began to notice other distinctive attributes about them. None of the people from the walls had fingernails. I saw it on the waitresses when they reached for the cups handed to them, on Andrik when he scribbled down notes. However that was not the only thing off about them. All those little details in their faces, the kind of thing you'd normally never pay attention to–they didn't add up. For example, their eyes didn't lign up. One was always slightly lower than the other, just enough for someone to notice. Their nostrils would differ in width and one of the girls' pinky fingers was the same length as her ring finger. Had I not known that they had just crawled out from the backroom walls, I would have chalked these harmless little oddities up to simple, inconspicuous deformities, but knowing what I knew, it made my skin crawl with uncomfort. I soon found out that Andrik did most of the talking for them. Bo rarely ever said a word, and all the waitresses did was whisper amongst themselves, giggle and chat with the patrons. Eventually, Andrik waved me over to him behind the counter. "Alright, to give you a rundown of the place, we have a cash-only system. We rely on our local clientele, but once in a while someone new comes by and then we try and keep them around, obviously. Here's some of our regulars." He pointed at a lady sitting in a corner, weeping over an empty glass of whiskey. "That's Shauna. Comes here whenever she can, only ever orders whiskey. Will not stop crying." His finger wandered over to an old, short man with an almost disproportionately large head and short white hair. He was sitting at one of the tables as well, talking to two younger women who seemed very much out of place. "That's Tommy. He's likely to start fights but he drinks a lot and tips very generously. Bo throws him out a lot but he's very easy on him, so don't worry." He finally nodded towards a tall glass of wine standing lonely on the counter right in front of us. "And this is Irene. She can't pay but she's always welcome. She's very nice and she's been here ever since Mack's family started this business." "Andrik, there's nothing there." The pale man threw me a confused glance. "What do you mean, she's right… oh! Of course. Don't worry, you'll start seeing her with time. Either way, for now there's actually not much for you to do except read up on barkeeping once you get the chance. However you should start getting acquainted with the regulars. After all, the owner of The New Saloon will always be part of the reason why people come here." He paused as his mouth started to twitch into an almost guileful grin. "I have a feeling they're going to love you." I retreated into the ladies' room for a quick break. I sat down on one of the toilets and buried my face in my palms. I had no idea what was going on or what I was supposed to do. Andrik had made himself pretty clear when it came to the instructions he'd given me, but all of this was so surreal I seriously considered the possibility of me having suffered some kind of blow to the head and dreaming it. I spent the rest of the night standing behind the counter and observing their every move. Andrik kept to my side mostly, looking at me with the kind of suspicion I probably had in my eyes as well. I couldn't figure him out. I accidentally-on-purpose walked by the waitresses who were talking to each other in hushed voices, picking up on small bits of their conversation. "Her blood is weaker than his. Do you think she's–?" "We shouldn't take any chances. Remember what Mack did when we tried to test him?" "I do, but this could be our chance to have some fun." Her words sent chills down my spine. Remembering Mack's letter however, I decided this was not the time to show I was frightened. "You're going to do no such thing," I chimed in from behind them. "I don't care what you are but I promise I'll find a way to make this whole thing very uncomfortable for you guys if you try to pull any kind of weird crap on me." The looks they gave me were worth my initial doubt. They seemed shocked that I had listened in on them at all, let alone spoken up. I glared at them, holding their gaze and ignoring the trembling of my legs. Their heads lowered, they marched off. When the bar began to clear out and we got ready to close down for the night, I told the four of them to clean up. Of course I helped, but I made sure never to lose sight of a single one of them. I felt like they were wild, hungry animals, waiting for their chance to pounce on me. Whenever I looked up from the rag I was wiping the countertop with, I would find one of them staring at me. By the time we were done, the place really did look a lot more welcoming. It certainly was cleaner, despite the four workers' angry faces spoiling the mood. We carried the cleaning supplies back into the small storage chamber next to the employee restroom before I went to open the backroom door for them. "Okay everyone, good job today! Thanks a lot, now back inside!" I called out, almost enjoying the feeling of authority as they came trodding towards me and made their way down into the dimly lit basement single-file. Andrik was the last one to cross the threshold. Right before descending the staircase, he turned to face me once more. "You were keeping a close eye on us," he said quietly. "That's clever. But you're going to need to keep it up and… let's see how long you'll last. Who knows what might happen." He gave me a sly wink with the one eye that was a little lower on his face before following his co-workers. I watched from the top of the stairs as they leaned up against the walls. It was almost as I had expected; their bodies seemed to melt into the holes they had come from, sealing them shut and not leaving so much as a thin crack. Lacking a better option, I stayed at a nearby inn that night. As bizarre and frightening as all of this had been, I got out of it unscathed. The bar workers and I would end up coming to blows in the future though, more than once. And I wouldn't always be that lucky. X Part 2: one of the regulars had a doppelgänger Part 3: My bouncer and I got beaten up by a little girl. Part 4: The regular who never stops crying. Part 5: Appreciate good employees.
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