Background

The NFL is the professional organization for gridiron football in the United States, and one of the largest sporting organizations on the planet. Boasting a yearly revenue of over $16 billion, putting it on par not just with major corporations, but with major industries. And of course it's managed by petty, tiny babies. 31 of the 32 teams are owned by rich individuals who did not make their money through football.

Team History

The year is 1957. The place, Detroit. A booming city, Detroit is a place to be. American factories pump out American cars, the best in the world. Some of them even get seven miles to the gallon. Here, at the center of American automotive manufacturing, sits the best team in football - the Detroit Lions. Having gone 8-4 in the regular season, they defeated the San Francisco 49ers to advance to the Superbowl NFL Championship (Superbowls didn't start until the NFL-AFL merger in '66), then the Cleveland Browns in the Championship, they became the ultimate winners of the National Football League. Although not the American Football League - the NFL-AFL merger would happen in 1966, still many years in the future.
For a Detroit fan, the future looked bright. Until a minor scandal - okay, no, a major scandal happened. The players were betting on games. Amidst the controversy and fines came an angel of salvation - William Clay Ford. Heir to the Ford Family fortunes, he purchased full ownership of the Detroit Lions in 1963 for the sum of $5.4 million.
A rich owner who could afford to pay coaches and staff, no need to scrap for dollars on ticket sales, and the NFL-AFL merger sending the popularity of football soaring. Yes, going in to the 60s, the Detroit Lions were an easy bet. Ford would lead them.

The Playoffs, an interlude

Playoffs in professional sports is interesting. They are constantly expanding - now more baseball teams will make the playoffs than miss them, and have fluctuated in size. But usually it's somewhere between 1/4 and 1/2 of the teams in a sport will make the playoffs. There they will play elimination brackets until there's a championship between two teams for the glory.
There have been long championship droughts. The longest in baseballs is the Seattle Mariners, who after being founded in 1977 have never made the world series, only occasionally venturing deep into the playoffs. They are awful. In the NBA, it is the LA Clippers. Founded 50 years ago, they have never made it past the playoff semi-final round. In Hockey, the all time has to go to the Toronto Maple Leafs, Hockey's constant whipping boy, who have gone 52 seasons since they last lifted the Stanley cup. They have lost five conference finals in that time, coming within a single series of that highest stage, and yet never reaching.
So lets just keep that in mind as we come up through 1989. The Lions at this point have never won a playoff game since that 1957 season, spending the 60s, the 70s, and the 80s without winning a post season game. Not a team on the above list of awfulness can match that.

The Rebuilds

In 1989, William Clay Ford stepped down from his role as chairman at the Ford Motor Company, and turned to his true passion - the Detroit Lions. And this is where we see the Detroit Lions fortunes do a swift 360.
Ford made some major changes, immediately ditching their old head coach Darryl Rogers for a new Head Coach, Wayne Fontes. Today known as the winningest coach in Lions history, Fontes is a legendary head coach.
Perhaps more importantly than Fontes, they drafted a name to be feared - Barry Sanders. With their third overall pick in 1989, Sanders was one of the most unstoppable backs ever to live. One of seven backs in the 2000+ yard running club, from the beginning of his career to the end he looked unstoppable. Legendary running backs like Emmitt Smith credit him as one of the best ever to live.
And indeed, the turnaround happened. Coming of a string of 4 and 5 win seasons, in 1989 they scraped together a 7-9, and in 1991 they managed a strong 12-4. They stormed to the Cowboys, crushing them 38-6, only to fall to the [DC Football Gurus] in a 41-10 blowout. That team was unstoppable though, easily winning a superbowl, and Detroit could finally breath easy. A 35 year drought had ended. The Lions had won a playoff game. And with a new coach and the best running back ever, this was only the start of their dominance.
'92 was a setback. They went 5-11, the only bright spot being Barry Sanders breaking the all-time franchise running record in just four seasons. Yeah, Barry was good at football. But in 93, they were back in form, going 10-6 and making it to the playoffs, only to be eliminated by the Packers in a close and heartbreaking game.
In 94 they made it to the playoffs and lost to the packers again, 16-12 this time, and in 95 they made it back only to immediately lose to the Eagles. Then in 96 Wayne Fontes picked up his second 5-11 season. And there his career would end, 67-71 with the Lions overall. 89-96, quite the run.
That's okay though, Ford had fixed things. He had found Bobby Ross. Bobby Ross was going to lead the Lions to victory. With a strong college coaching career, they weren't going to have another 5-11 season. And indeed they went 9-7, losing in the playoffs, before falling to... 5-11.

Goodbye to the GOAT

And here Barry Sanders career ended. Frustrated with ten years of failure, he demanded to be released or traded. The Lions did neither, and sued him instead. Faced with this, Barry Sanders hung up his cleats. In his 10 years he averaged 1500 yards/season, the highest pace ever, and had he played five more years he would have broken records. Had he regularly made it to the postseason he would have broken records. Yet there he went went. Goodbye Barry.

If at first you don't rebuild, build and build again

Marred by the departure of Sanders, Bobby Ross managed an 8-8 season and a playoff loss before getting fired. For... oh hell, lets just blow through some of this fast. In format years coach:wins, we have:

• '01-02 Marty Morhinweg: 5-27
• '03-05 Steve Mariucci, 15-28
• '06-07 Rod Marinelli 10-22

Okay full stop. This needs a header.

2008

This year is special. In 2007 the Detroit Lions drafted a wide receiver named Calvin Johnson. Calvin Johnson a big man. Standing 6'4" and 240 lbs, he was... oh, lightning fast. The combination of speed and size has never been seen before or since in the NFL. He was taller, his arms were longer, and he was faster than anyone on the field. It looked like this.
In 2007 he had done well, but 2008 would be his breakout year. 1331 yards receiving in the regular season, a phenomenal number (anything over 1000 is great). Marinelli had gone 3-13 in 06, but in 07 he improved to 7-9, and with Johnson being better than anyone could have imagined, the Lions were expected to have a good season. Perhaps even make it to the playoffs. They were going to be an 8-10 win team.
Did they get 8? No. 5? No. 2? No. The Detroit Lions were the first team in NFL history to pick up a perfect 0-16 season. Winning not a single game, Rod Marinelli would end his tenure at 10-38.
Primed for a good year, fans were horrified. The Lions had failed like no team had ever failed before. The only option? Complete Rebuild. They scrapped the team. Most would never play in the NFL again. This was it. This was rock bottom.

The final rebuild

Faced with their level of abject failure, they scrapped everything not named Calvin Johnson. Hiring Jim Schwartz to take over the rebuild, everyone knew this would be a process. All new coaches, all new players. Jim Schwartz had lead the Titans to 13-3, and he was given enormous leeway to have bad seasons. Indeed, no one blinked an eye when 2009 was 2-14 - Jim was rebuilding from Calvin Johnson up. Although somehow two players did drown off the coast of Miami.
During this Jim traded away the rest of the players who were still worth something, preparing for a complete rebuild. They selected Matt Stafford for QB with their first round pick, and based around a franchise QB and star WR, they would build a fantastic new team.
Results picked up immediately, with a 6-10 season, and then a 10-6 playoff run. They lost in the first round, but with this new team there was no way they could... go 4-12 then 7-9. And Jim Schwartz leaves, having gone 29-51.

Here we go again

Picking a theme, they stuck with the name Jim. Jim Caldwell decided to make major changes to the team. Deciding Schwartz was a quality improver, Caldwell chose to take the star talent on the team and use new tactics and strategy to take them further. And it worked! They went 11-5 immediately. They lost in the wild card game to the Cowboys, but they were on the road.
2015, goodbye GOAT. 2015 they went 9-7, missing the playoffs, and Calvin Johnson had had enough. His 9 season yardage record was behind only 4 players - Julio Jones, Terry Holt, and Jerry Rice. He set multiple receiving records, and his single-season record of 1,964 yards still stands today.
And the Lions sued him to try and get some money back. He's still bitter about it to this day.
Jim Caldwell would get back to the playoffs with a 9-7 record, losing to the Seahawks, but would then have another 9-7 season in 2017, and leave. His record stands at 35-29, a winning record. You escaped the Lions with a winning record Caldwell. Well done.

A sad milestone

In 2015 William Clay Ford, the man who bought the lions back in 63, passed. Ownership passed to Martha Firestone Ford, his wife, who was committed to reforming the team her husband loved into a winning franchise. She took a few years to understand it, then moved on from Caldwell, and go to

Matt Patricia, and the final rebuild

The year is 2018. A saga that began in 1957 has brought us here. Countless head coaches. One playoff win. Two all-time greats having their careers squandered. This is the Detroit Lions redemption story.
It begins with Matt Patricia. Serving under Bill Belichick, the winningest coach in history (244-92 game win:loss record), Matt Patricia understood the Patriot way. He was going to reorganize the Lions. He understood physical conditioning and mental fortitude like no other, for he served under the best coach ever. Lions fans were stoked. Here was a team that had posted winning records, now with a coach who could bring them that last set. Playoff glory was in their eyes.
Oh I'll spare you the dramatics. The old lady running the football team was not secretly a genius, and Matt Patricia is a pumpkin. From actually posting a winning record under the last coach, Patricia racked up 13-29 record before being unceremoniously fired.

2021, the true final rebuild and conclusion

But good news for the Lions! Sheila Ford Hamp has taken over the family business. She was the one to fire Patricia, and she's going to run the Detroit Lions like her family always dreamed of. She's going to make her mother and father proud, and turn them into a real team. After screaming all season for Patricia's blood, Detroit fans are cautiously optimistic for the future because no one who is still a fan of the team understands basic pattern recognition.
So there you have it. 1957-1989, we had 32 years of abject failure, then from 1989 to 2020 we have had eight rebuilds, two historically skilled players, the worst record in football history, two historically good players sued by the team, and literally countless people fired, hired, fired again, hired again, as the Detroit Lions try to discover what the key to actually playing football is.
This is not a bad team content with their badness. This is a team that has fought and struggled every stage to become good, and at every stage failed harder than any team has failed before. People have fought, lawsuits have been slung, harsh, harsh words have been spoken. This is the drama of the Detroit Lions, the worst professional sports organization on the North American continent.

Before the season, I posted "My Take on the 2021 NFL QB Class". With the exception of D'Eriq King and Purdy, my class is fairly similar to what it was earlier in the season. Obviously, Zach Wilson was the big mover. COVID did impact this QB class as it did for everything in sports. Here is my updated list:
QB1 :
Trevor Lawrence – Top QB in the draft. Once in a generation prospect even if his QB skills aren’t exactly there with Andrew Luck, he’s better at the spread than Luck as a pro-style QB.
Status – Very Polished, could use more polish as a pro-style QB
Style of QB – Balanced QB
System – Spread (Elite) The greatest spread QB prospect of all time.
Floor: Very good NFL QB who’s a top 12-15 QB especially if used in the spread, could be higher.
Ceiling: The best player in the NFL
Player Comparison – John Elway
Impact Comparison – Not sure we have seen someone as good as Trevor as a spread QB who is going to a spread system like Urban Meyer. Obviously, Kyler and Kliff Kingsbury was a great marriage but T. Law is several tiers better at the spread than Murray. Some will say Herbert but Trevor is a much better spread QB than Herbert. Trevor makes others around him better. Herbert needs to have a strong supporting cast. Trevor has some Deshaun Watson in him.
Tier – All-Pro Prospect
I am about going to breakdown any of these prospects to a T. I felt a lot of guys have done that already and have pretty good lists of their strengths and weaknesses. While Trevor has a similar floor to Fields, his potential is astronomical. He and Lance have the highest ceiling in this draft. If this were another sport like Basketball, I would compare Trevor to Luka Doncic.
Favorite High-End Play from Trevor: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WiGP_wd8Z5c
QB2:
Trey Lance– Most talented and gifted QB in this draft. Elite athleticism, elite strength for the position, very good arm, elite work ethic, elite Football IQ, and Football instincts, with pre-snap abilities as an RS Freshman. It helps he’s also a pro-style QB which matters in the NFL.
Status – Needs polish, Boom or Bust prospect
Style of QB – Running QB
System – West Coast QB
Floor: Below Average QB who could be solid (top 20-25 QB) if the personnel around him is very good.
Ceiling: All-Pro QB who is an elite football player while being a very good QB
Player Comparison – Steve McNair
Impact Comparison – Josh Allen
Tier – Pro Bowl Prospect
He has a lot of McNair qualities and throws and moves a lot like McNair. Faster than McNair plays like a 4.5 guy. What is special about Lance is he is an elite all-around athlete. He is not just a great athlete out of the pocket, he is a great athlete in the pocket. He also showcases a very good mental processing speed. They make things simple for Lance with mirrors but considering he was an RS Freshman in all the tape I watched, I really don’t have as much of a problem with it.
I liked his accuracy overall. I really did not have much of an issue with it as I rewatched the tape. Experience is probably the biggest thing I want to see him add more of. He's a freak athlete, extremely talented QB, what if he is what Pat Mahomes is to Brett Favre for him/McNair. His impact comparison is Allen because he's one of the most naturally gifted and talented physically strong players I've seen as I have been doing this.
QB3a:
Justin Fields– Elite Mobile QB prospect and the best mobile QB I have ever seen. Excellent athleticism, elite strength for the position, very good arm, excellent accuracy, elite work ethic, scheme versatile, and knows when to run or pass effortlessly. PFF rated him an elite QB every season he has played.
Status – The most polished QB in the draft.
Style of QB – Mobile QB
System – Pro-Style QB, scheme versatile, can also play pro-style at a high level.
Floor: Good QB, top 20 QB day 1.
Ceiling: Multiple time Pro Bowler who can win you a lot of games with a good team surrounding him.
Player Comparison – Donovan McNabb
Impact Comparison – Matt Ryan
Tier – Very good Prospect
Reminds me of Matt Ryan a lot. Meaning that they are extremely polished as prospects and ready on day 1 but they have a good number of flaws that are not as workable as their fans want you to believe and I wonder if their ceiling really is that high. I felt Ryan’s was not and was proven correct. I feel the same about Fields, but I could be proven wrong.
Ryan as a prospect was an elite game manager prospect which is like Fields who is an elite mobile QB prospect. His playing style reminds me a lot of McNabb. I hate the Watson comparison; Watson is a gamer who is a freakish playmaker. Fields usually take what the defense gives him. He is a lot more like McNabb.
Mobile QB always have a much higher risk of injuries due to their style of play but their style of play leads to winning with less and winning big with more but they don’t have the same longevity as balanced and non-mobile QBs.
QB3b:
Zach Wilson– Similar to Joe Burrow, he had a freakishly elite year before he entered the NFL while previous years were decent but nothing to write about for an NFL QB Prospect. What I love about Wilson is many of the things I loved about Burrow. Elite accuracy. Can throw off-platform. Throws off many different arm angles. Mobile. Good football IQ. The issue where I differ between him and Burrow who I felt was a legit All-Pro prospect with a very high floor is decision making. I do like his arm strength more than Burrow. I really was not a fan of Wilson’s decision making and I feel, he needs a lot of development at it if it can be fixed at all. PFF rated him a 95.4 which is insanely high considering his personnel.
Status – Very polished
Style of QB – Balanced QB
System – Spread QB
Floor: Decent QB, should be top 20-25 QB as a rookie and better depending on the personnel.
Ceiling: Multiple time Pro Bowler who can win you a lot of games with a good team surrounding him. Players will really be able to put up excellent stats with him at QB when he reaches his comfort zone.
Player Comparison – Joe Burrow
Impact Comparison – Tony Romo
Tier – Very good Prospect
Reminds me of Tony Romo. Talented. Accurate. Questionable decision making. Thinks he is more athletic than he is. Will likely have a lot of injuries due to his decision making. Overall, he’s a great fit for the modern game with the WR’s, TE’s, and schemes we have in today’s NFL.
QB5:
Mac Jones – Had one of the best seasons in college football history. Tremendous pocket QB ability. Elite ball placement on short to intermediate throws. Gives his WRs a shot to make the play. Throws all his players in stride when it is not a deep ball. He likes to sling the rock and knows how to mix run and pass. His athletic ability is not awful, he reminds me of Nick Mullens athletically. Best Football IQ in this draft for a QB, he is a very good decision-maker. Tremendous foot speed within the pocket. The best in the class and easily the best I have seen in a while for a QB prospect.
His arm strength is a major issue and considering the timing of today’s pocket, he needs to be more athletic too. Also, his weapons are better than the players he will likely play with at the next level. He is clearly the best game managing QB I have seen in a while but most of these guys if not all of them have been bad or bust recently. Jared Goff is the last elite game managing prospect, and he is hurting his team more than helping them these days. Mac is a very good game manager prospect.
Status – Very polished
Style of QB – Game Manager
System – West Coast QB
Floor: Below average QB, should be back up tier QB as a rookie.
Ceiling: Could be a decent QB long term. Depending on the system, coaching, and personnel, could be the biggest breakout in this class.
Player Comparison – Jake Fromm
Impact Comparison – Phillip Rivers
Tier – Good Prospect
Clearly a 1st round QB to me. Best pocket passer in the draft. Will be a game manager for a while and hopes that he can develop into a good QB. He reminds me of a lot of Fromm but he is superior in many key areas. The hope is that he eventually develops into a Phillip Rivers reliable Pro Bowl type of QB considering his arm strength questions. His most impressive trait for me is his foot speed within the pocket. He will remind some people of Tom Brady. Watching early Brady, I can see the comparisons but man, Brady needed A LOT to go right for him to be an elite QB. Coaching, system, scheme, personnel, how you are used. You can go to the wrong team and he is a rich man’s Nate Peterman being a career backup. In today’s NFL, getting everything to go right usually does not happen so do not expect it to happen. If there is a Pat Mahomes or Lamar Jackson in this class (2nd or 3rd round grade QB who became a superstar), Mac Jones is it for me.
QB6:
Kyle Trask – A Pocket Passer. We do not get many of these a lot these days. Kyle is excellent at the line. The pre-snap grade is very good. He knows how to get the ball to his playmakers. He has an excellent feel for the game. He has very good size. He is a very good Pocket Passer QB prospect. Guys like him do well in the NFL because running an offense and being productive is VERY hard to find and his arm is strong enough.
Status – Very polished
Style of QB – Pocket Passer
System – Spread QB
Floor: Average QB, should be a top tier backup QB as a rookie. Top 30-35 QB
Ceiling: Should be a decent QB long term with the potential to be a long-term starter
Player Comparison – Dwayne Haskins
Impact Comparison – Matt Hasselbeck
Tier – Good Prospect
While he is not a 1st rounder to me. He is a lot less risky than Jones or Lance. Why? He going to run the offense the way the coaches draw it up to be run like. He has the size. He has the arm. It would not surprise me if he appealed to teams who want to be run first and defensive-minded. His potential is not high, but it is not bad either. Do not be surprised if Trask has more success than Wilson long term. It is hard to see him have more success than Fields or T-Law. Do not be shocked if he had more short-term success than Lance.
QB7:
Jamie Newman – An mobile QB prospect who is a deep ball threat. Newman reminds me of Daunte Culpepper as a prospect. I wish we would have seen him this year but the Monken system was not really a fit for Newman’s style of play.
Status – Needs polish
Style of QB – Mobile QB
System – Pro-Style QB
Floor: Below average QB, backup at best.
Ceiling: A top 20 QB with a chance a major success with the right personnel.
Player Comparison – Daunte Culpepper
Impact Comparison – Daunte Culpepper
Tier – Good Prospect
While he is not a 1st rounder to me. He has one of the higher ceilings in the draft. If there is a QB you want to bet on the long term and you have the right system, Newman makes a lot of sense. Should appeal to teams like Pitt who want big plays and the running game to win games.
The rest are not worth me grading. Mond is a 4th to 5th rounder for me. He is a poor man’s Kaepernick. Ellinger is even worse. Ian Book, Dustin Crum, and Davis Mills are interesting, and I will be tracking them at the combine and further.

1. Trevor - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WiGP_wd8Z5c
2. Trey - https://youtu.be/4oP3O1C3PUc
3. Justin and Zach - https://youtu.be/afu8ul3RoQ0 and https://youtu.be/T36Gk6czPio
4. –
5. Mac - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8W9a_Z9hkvY
6. Kyle - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6tcDrgjZ_h4
7. Newman - https://youtu.be/zZhi_bLhGa0
8. Mond - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rkdKxCELcQU
9. Crum - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7nByCGzbjJQ
10. Book - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9sP5w-R3mN8

Original Thread:
https://www.reddit.com/NFL_Draft/comments/izkhe5/my_take_on_the_2021_nfl_qb_class/

Note: Made an edit 12 hours after posting here. I didn't like where Rondale was ranked so I did move him up two spots to more closely match his athletic profile to other players. To make someone upset, looking at these rankings and having spent more time thinking about it I may also move Smith down to 9. I'll leave it for now.
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2020 series:

• Notes on the 2020 Class
• Let's Talk: 2020 Rankings
• 2020 Post Combine Rankings
• 2020 Rookie Ranking Capstone

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2021 series:

• Notes on the 2021 Class
• Scouting List 2020
  • ^{Yes, an inconsistent title, it’s scouting the 2020 school year, but technically it’s 2021 prospects exclusively.}

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^{Quick note: I am not going to be providing a formula change relative to last year, and I'll be citing past work in this post rather than bringing in new concepts. To that point I suppose we will talk more about rankings today. I'm going to avoid tiering in this case but will certainly enter discussions below; I intend to describe more of my takes in the comments rather than the body of the post.}
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Contents:

• 2020 Season Recap
• Draft Capital Expectations
• Positional Rankings
• Top 12 Rankings

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2020 Season Recap

Like every year, the sands shift under our feet every couple of weeks. We had players opt out, we had players lose the season due to injury, we had players lose their careers due to medical events. We see this frequently, Mike Williams and DK Metcalf having their careers threatened by neck injuries, Ahmonn Richards losing his career due to a neck injury.
This year we nearly lost Justyn Ross due to a birth defect (and given Clemson’s history may be likely to return to school) and lost Journey Brown (my pre-season RB3) to a career ending heart defect. Throw in Ja’Marr Chase’s opt out--which gave Terrace Marshall the lead spot at LSU, Javonte Williams usurping Michael Carter and thundering into the top RB conversation, Kylin Hill opting out; the sands shifted.
For all that sand shifting, I do not feel my rankings in this iteration are changing much. There were some stand out performances that re-organized my WR rankings, and my uncertainty around Hubbard has only grown, but the complexion of the rankings are fairly solid now 8 months later.
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Draft Expectations

I reference my thought process around this in the 2020 Let's Talk under the heading "Setting Draft Capital Expectations." The cliff notes version is I currently use historical precedent to determine just how many players we can expect to go in rounds 1-3 each year. This was born out of countering the idiocy of takes like "30 wide receivers are going to go in the first 3 rounds" when there have never been more than 17 taken. Generally, we know that draft capital is a large portion of opportunity and the wide body of top ranked prospects any given year will come out of day 1 and day 2.
This doesn't mean we disregard everyone that falls out of that conversation--this year there are a number of players I am intrigued with that I currently don't project to have day 1 or day 2 draft capital--but it gives us a place to start.
Since 2013, we know on average 5 QBs, 7 RBs, 12 WRs, and 6 TEs go Day 1-2. Over that course of time we have not seen more than 8 RBs or 16 WRs go in the first two days of the draft and from past examination since 2002 it was only in 2007 that 17 WRs went in the first two days. The general thought here, like we observed in 2019, you may get a record 13 receivers go in the first 2 rounds but then you are only going to get 2 in round 3..on average. Any year can be an outlier, but we don't set expectations on outliers.
Having said all of this my current expectation for the coming class is:

Round	QB	RB	WR
1	3	0-1*	4-6*
2	1-2*	3-4*	4-6*
3	1-2*	3	2-3*
Total Taken	6	7	12

* My current read is there is a player(s) between rounds.
One quick note, every year there tends to be a small school guy that creeps into the day 2 conversation. This year, I wouldn't bet against 13-15 receivers being taken, however I believe there is value in being measured and conservative in these numbers as we must thin the herd and think about who deserves to be in the conversation instead of assuming every player that is ever mentioned is just in the conversation. That's how you get Equanimeous St. Brown Round 1 lock.
^{PS: Dang I did a pretty good job ballparking players last year. Maybe I should have spent more time on it this year to make sure I do just as well.}
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Positional Rankings

First, no, I don't talk about tight ends until after the draft. It's outside of my wheel house. A lot of people I respect LOVE Pitts though.
As I've spoken in the past, draft capital is a good guide, and often times out performs ADP in straight rankings, especially early in a players career (opportunity > talent, but talent eventually brings the opportunity). However, if we are looking at success rates, or the probability of finding success by draft position, we find there isn't a significant difference in rate of success between a runner taken 65th overall and a runner taken 90th overall. A receiver taken 25th overall or a receiver taken 65th overall.
More succinctly, if you know DK Metcalf is a hard worker, comes from a football family, has a production profile that mirrors hall of famers when extrapolated out and has gone to a good team--you ignore what people are saying and take the 9th drafted WR as your WR1. Take the 6th drafted WR (Michael Thomas) as your WR1. It may fail, the best odds in fantasy predictions are a coin flip, the BEST odds, so don't haggle between the difference of 20% and 15% odds.
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Quarterback

1. Trevor Lawrence, Clemson (Top 3)
2. Justin Fields, Ohio State (Top 5)
3. Zach Wilson, BYU (Round 1)
4. Mac Jones, Alabama (Round 2)
5. Trey Lance, North Dakota State (Round 2)
6. Kyle Trask, Florida (Round 2-3)

Haven't fallen in love with a specific QB yet, but I think there is a lot of noise around each player. Find your favorite and cling to him.
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Running Back

1. Najee Harris, Alabama (Round 2)
2. Travis Etienne, Clemson (Round 2)
3. Javonte Williams, North Carolina (Round 2)
4. Jermar Jefferson, Oregon State (Round 3)
5. Michael Carter, North Carolina (Round 3)
6. Chuba Hubbard, Oklahoma State (Round 2)
7. Kenneth Gainwell, Memphis (Round 3)

Honorable Mentions:

• Trey Sermon, Ohio State
• Kylin Hill, Mississippi State
• Brian Robinson, Alabama
• Javian Hawkins, Lousville

I'm not saying there won't be first round runners, but if there are, I think they seep into the 20s or 30-32 like last year.
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Wide Receiver

1. Ja'Marr Chase, LSU (Top 15)
2. Terrace Marshall, LSU (Top 40)
3. Justyn Ross, Clemson (Round 2)
4. Rashod Bateman, Minnesota (Top 40)
5. Jaylen Waddle, Alabama (Top 20)
6. DeVonta Smith, Alabama (Top 30)
7. Seth Williams, Auburn (Round 3)
8. Elijah Moore, Ole Miss (Round 2)
9. Rondale Moore, Purdue (Top 40) [+2]
10. Chris Olave, Ohio State (Round 2)
11. Tylan Wallace, Oklahoma State (Round 2-3)
12. Dyami Brown, North Carolina (Round 3)

Honorable Mentions:

• Amon-Ra St. Brown
• Dazz Newsome

Let it all burn.
Before everyone goes thermonuclear in the comments, 5-11 are a fairly large tier for me. I think Rondale Moore is roughly where Tyreek was coming out of college, more game tape being used as an extension of the ground game than as a true wide receiver. I think in the right situation (with the reading I've done on Rondale Moore) gives him a similar career arc to Tyreek. But if you are asking me to give up someone like the more technically savvy players ahead of him for Rondale and I need to hit on that pick? It's scary so far out from the start of the season.
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Top 12 Rankings (Superflex)

1. Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson
2. Ja'Marr Chase, WR, LSU
3. Najee Harris, RB, Alabama
4. Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State
5. Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson
6. Javonte Williams, RB, North Carolina
7. Terrace Marshall, WR, LSU
8. Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota
9. Justyn Ross, WR, Clemson
10. Zach Wilson, QB, BYU
11. Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama
12. Rondale Moore, WR, Purdue

I always do my top 12 rankings a little differently than my positional rankings because here I think player value has to come into play. I may not be as high on some people on Rashod Bateman, Rondale Moore--but at some point you are taking him in a draft because of the value and the potential trade outs late in the summer and early in the season. It quickly becomes situational and an examination of upside.
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Let's talk.

I have plenty to do today, but it can wait. I have a lot on my mind. I have no plan for this and I assure you if you read a stat, it was made up. But here they are: the top ten reasons the Browns will win on Sunday.
1.People Think the Chiefs Have Been Playing with Their Food by Playing Close Games, When Really They are Just Not as in Control As Everyone Thinks
Two years ago, when Mahomes first made his appearance in the league, the Chiefs were blowing people out of the water. Teams didn't know what was hitting them. He won the MVP handily and, if not for Dee Ford placing his hand two inches in the wrong direction, might have won a Super Bowl.
After losing Mahomes in the middle of last year, the team lost its stability, and the defense became a liability. When Mahomes led some heroic comebacks in the playoffs, people were wowed by his superhuman abilities and thought, like a superhero who fishes himself out of deep trouble 2/3rds of the way through the movie, "that was the plan the whole time!"
For specific reasons, the Chiefs are good at stretch-the-field, come-from-behind scenarios. But it's not the plan. The fact is, it's something of an open secret that the Chiefs lack a true identity, but win despite this major shortcoming.

1. The Chiefs Have Been Pretending to Have a Run Game For Two Years

Andy Reid has had 4 good running backs in his career: Duce Staley, Brian Westbrook, LeSean McCoy, and Kareem Hunt. (He also got Jamaal Charles for 1 year.)
Ever since the departure of Kareem Hunt, Reid has been scrambling to find someone to replace him. He certainly has a type: shifty, elusive backs who are good in open space. Since losing Kareem Hunt it has been: Darrel Williams, Damien Williams, Darwin Thompson, and an aged LeSean McCoy. None of them are what he wants. He carouseled through them last year as they got injured, grew fumbling problems, or he just was tired of seeing their faces. At some point he resigned himself to the fact that he didn't have a run game, and he only needed to pretend to have one.
Enter the drafting of Clyde Edwards-Helaire and the signing of Le'Veon Bell. Edwards-Helaire has been serviceable, but he is awful between the tackles, and his elusiveness hasn't been reliable. Aside from that, he has an ankle injury and did not practice today. Le'Veon Bell has been pretending to play football as most plays he begins with a hesitation, as though he is trying to remember something he knew in 2017 that he has since forgotten.
The fact is that the Chiefs have limited dimensions as an offense. They depend on the bowling-ballness of Kelce and the speed of their receivers to get open, despite the fact teams mostly do not have to worry about the run game at all.

1. The Chiefs Have Two Plays and the Rest is Seeing How Long They Can Hold Their Breath Underwater

If you watch Chiefs highlights, they are very different from Browns highlights. One play you'll see is Hill or Hardman on a jet sweep, and the other is a slant or post to Kelce. Those are the only plays they run on time. Because there is so much coverage down the field, Reid ends each playcall into Mahomes' headset saying, "...and if that doesn't work, I'm sure you'll think of something."
Which is what happens 75% of the time, according to my own feelings and beliefs. Mahomes is the best scrambler in the league and each play lasts about as long as a Youtube ad you can't skip. This is where the Chiefs make their money. Mahomes has such vision, scrambling ability, and unique-kind-of-pass ability, he usually figures something out. And Hill, Hardman, and Kelce each have unique advantages that they usually outrun the coverage.
But this also means that the Chiefs offense is built on tightrope walking. We are so often impressed with Mahomes because of the ravine on either side of the play; there are so many ways things could go wrong. You can say "But it's Mahomes! It never does go wrong!" This isn't true, he just usually makes up for his mistakes. He took an awful sack vs Miami, the longest in a billion years in the NFL, and threw what should have been a game-ending dropped pick vs Atlanta in his last action of the season. While you're still a hero, everyone only remembers the hits.

1. Their Defense Is Nothing To Write Home About

And that's why I'm not going to write you about it. Their defense only won them 2 games this year, their first game vs. Justin Herbert, and the game vs. Atlanta. Their defense is quite similar to ours, except that their rushers have been underachieving. Given their offense, their defense has been good enough.

1. They Are Super Bowl Hungover And Have Nothing to Play For In Their Hearts

In a documentary on his coaching career Bill Belichick said many people aim to scale the mountain; the tough thing, though, is once you have scaled it to stay at the top. It's a very rare accomplishment.
So are the Chiefs going to stay on top of the mountain? So far people have assumed that the Chiefs have been "playing with their food" and waiting to be really good until the playoffs.
But many people have also noted that the Chiefs often play "bored." They have coasted on their elite talent - their speed, Kelce's biceps, and Mahomes rain dance scrambling drills. It's like how I know how to make a really good sweet potato curry. Once I nailed that recipe, I just figured "why not do this every time? It's fun." Now I look like a sweet potato curry addict.
Not to get political, but I heard one (conservative) analyst say that this year that the incumbent lost because, "The first rule of elections is you never run the same campaign twice." Right now, the Chiefs are doing just that. The Titans just ran the same campaign twice, and they found out what happens. The Chiefs bear an eerily similar feeling to the 2011 Packers, 15-1 the season after their Super Bowl win, who came out and nose dived in the divisional round to the Giants. The Chiefs will not look as bad as the Packers did that game, but there is a real question of who will have the fire in this game.

1. People Were Busy Monitoring their Ebay Bidding Wars and Failed to Notice That Baker Mayfield Has Arrived

Football is so much a week-by-week thing, and our culture is so oriented toward hot takes and short videos, that people have completely missed the big picture arc of Baker Mayfield. While he still has flaws to clean up, they currently act only as a smokescreen to cover the fact that Baker Mayfield is now a force.
Mayfield's hyper-energetic playstyle and laser-zip passes earned him the Heisman trophy in 2017. By 2018, he showed this playstyle can work the exact same way in the NFL, as he gunned the ball wherever he wanted in 2018. A glimpse of what was to come.
In 2019, the wheels fell off the bus because, for the first time in his life, Baker didn't have an adequate structure around him. People fell into the delusion of thinking he was the magician, that his Heisman-ness and 2018 machismo could overcome the force of hyper-attentive defensive planning. It was a total disaster.
Because 2019 was gleefully received by people who rooted for Baker's downfall, associating him with the jocks they had hated in high school, the narrative of him being a bust reached escape velocity. From Browns' fans perspective, their 2018 hope was quickly enveloped by their long-tenured cynicism about the organization. In the off-season, his name was left on the back porch like a crate of used milk bottles to be picked up.
Then something happened. What Browns fans discovered, and the rest of Baker's bitter audience was displeased to remember, is there are about half a dozen young offensive minds who have emerged from Shanahan/Kubiak coaching tree who are a blink ahead of everyone on offensive scheming. With one of these directing Baker, he has adapted his raw college skills into a precision passing game that can take a game over. Because the first half of the year we were primarily a run team while Baker learned the system, and then we hit a spate of bad weather, people have missed this emerging phenomenon: the Browns are now a team that flows through Baker Mayfield, who has a scheme which he wields with growing dexterity by the week.
The numbers are there, from PFF grades to point totals, and people are wondering if it's real. But if you pay attention to the big picture, you know it's real. This is the real Baker Mayfield, and he's rolling into Kansas City on Sunday afternoon.

1. Batman and Superman

Where on the Chiefs team there is a gaping vacuum, the Browns have situated their best playmakers. While the Chiefs have the better overall receiving corps, the Browns' backfield packs the punch and versatility that Andy Reid can only dream of having. This gives the Browns' offense a naturally balancing aspect to it that the Chiefs offense lacks. Because the Browns' run threat is so real, it can never truly be ignored by a defense. When Stefanski gets what he wants early in a game, he is able to play defenses like a fiddle between the run and the pass.

1. The Browns Offensive Line

Billy Callahan is back on the sidelines, and the starters to the best offensive line in football are right on time. While they can so often be invisible, this game might truly come down to the differences between the offensive lines. If the run game gets going, and Baker has time to pick his target, while on the other hand KC has its hands full of Myles Garrett, the story of the game might be written right there.
It fits in well with this that the Browns are playing with heads full of steam, and I'm betting on our blockers in this game to set the tone early and often.

1. Kevin Stefanski, in a State of Ultimate Zen, Used Watching the Game On Sunday to Realize 486 New Things That He Could Use on Offense This Week

Much ink has been spilled about Andy Reid's record after a bye, which we can only presume comes because he looks at his play sheet and draws a squiggle in a new direction. Excellent work, Andy. While Andy was using his time in a theoretical head space, Stefanski was gifted an opportunity to self-scout and reach offensive enlightenment from the comfort of his own basement.
The truth is that, as Browns fans, we know that Stefanski has been switching things up each week. The best teams evolve throughout the season, and his usage of his players has been varied and dynamic depending on what the game calls for. While Reid has a proven track record, Stefanski is the wild card. While I am somewhat afraid he may overthink things, I think he retains the edge in playing his best saved tricks. With Callahan and AVP getting the ole band back together, they will be able to take their absolute best shot to upset the defending champs.

1. The New Browns Have Arrived, They are Angry, and They Are Playing with Nothing to Lose

"Just the 'Same Old Browns'! Just the 'Same Old Browns'!"
At the beginning of the season I wrote about the start of a Browns Way, that secret ingredient that touches each player and personnel member as they enter an organization, one that plants the seeds of success in them from the very start. While I saw various things pointing to the start of a Browns Way early in the season, I could never have dreamed to see it erupt into being like we did this past week in Pittsburgh, within a storm of events that not even the worst Browns' cynic could have foreseen.
The real evidence of the Browns Way for this season has been not a presence, but a silence. People across the nation woke up Monday quite surprised to find the Browns were in the 2nd round of the playoffs, and that's for a very specific reason: no one has been talking about us this year. Comparing this to last year, what this indicates is a lack of chaos. Every week last year - and for the last 20 years - it's been "this guy did this, this guy said that" and a maelstrom of drama would be created just to fill the headlines for a week. It emotionally exhausts the fans, and it definitely exhausts the players. Jeff Garcia said we were the most negative media culture he had ever been a part of.
You could definitely tell the change in Baker's interviews. Last year they were extremely tense, and a headline would usually be born of them. This year his entire composure changed; his focus was inward, on the team, and he wasn't going to go in for the shenanigans again this year. He was now protective of his team in a whole new way.
The focus that Stefanski has instilled in his team on the task at hand, while invisible to most eyes all year, has now been confirmed in the most dramatic of ways. With almost no change in his demeanor at all, he announced to the team he would not be able to coach them in the biggest game of the year. Suddenly, every player faced a choice, a reflection point: "Do I really believe in what we've been doing? Do I really believe in this team?"
We know the results. With their backs against the wall, outmanned, and understaffed, the Browns played the most physical, impassioned game they had all year. What we were happy to see on Sunday was not just that the Browns were winning, but also how they were winning. We knew this team was playing with confidence, determination, and moxie - and that they were doing it for each other. In a mysterious way, I think we witnessed the real life presence of the Browns Way, a focus and determination that doesn't change based on the circumstances.
Everyone who paid any attention could see: these were not the same old Browns.
I think Kansas City is going to need some luck this Sunday, if they are to stand a chance.

Grammar, spelling, formatting, on mobile, forgiveness, I’m human, this all happened several years ago, blah blah blah. Seriously, y’all are on Reddit so you know the drill. While this post could probably be broken up into multiple parts, I’m only using it as a bit of therapy so you get the whole proverbial cake all at once rather than going at it piece by piece. Once it’s written out I’m hoping that I won’t have to think about the specifics for a very long while. Plus I’m a little shy about sharing so that’s another reason why this has to be all in one go or not at all. I hope this is the correct place to post this story, if not your advice is more than welcome.
Warning... This turned out a LOT longer then I originally intended. The details run long but for me it’s necessary. I’m also a wordy writer... Oh, there is not too much dialogue either besides what I distinctly remember. I don’t see the point in embellishing an already crazy story. I probably won’t remember to put a TL:DR at the end either so just refer to the title lol. Sorry about that. Grab a beverage and a snack and strap in for the roller coaster ride.
Flashback to the year 200X. June. A beautiful day. Sunny. Slightly below average temperature for that time of year. A nice breeze that kept us all cool while we were all crammed together on the school’s football field. Perfect conditions for my high schools’ commencement exercises (aka graduation). The family members were seated. The music started. We high school seniors began the march to our seats. We sat. Speeches. Applause. Corny dad-jokes from our principal. Then the important part - the diplomas. We were called up one by one in alphabetical order. My maiden name began with a B so my turn to walk the stage and receive my diploma came relatively quickly. Applause (Most likely only from my parents and aunt and maybe a few claps from the families of my few friends. My family had moved so I had actually transferred into this school nearly in the middle of my senior year and didn’t have much of an established presence.). I returned to my seat and happily watched my friends and classmates have their own moments.
Some time later the final students name was called. We turned our tassels. Another speech from the principal admonishing us to remember that we were now adults and needed to act responsibly. Wished us the best of luck in our futures. I’m assuming that was the gist of his final speech. Totally didn’t pay attention (typical teenage attitude) Yada yada yada. FINALLY we were officially dismissed for the last time. We all cheered. Caps were tossed. It was an amazing moment. Totally like what you see on young adult television shows and tween movies. After getting quick hugs and congratulations from my best friends parents I excused myself and went to go look for my parents and aunt. I looked all over the field, in the parking lot, and everywhere in between. No beaming mother. No proud father. No aunt to smile and be happy for me. They were gone.
Overly long backstory
My aunt was (and still is unfortunately) totally entitled and oblivious of how the world really works to boot. Growing up I remember hearing bits and pieces of her “interesting” life. She had been married and subsequently divorced several times by this point. She had no concept of personal discipline or financial prudence so she had several creditors after her. She always had something wrong with her or her life. No one understood what she was going through. She needed help. The world hated her and people were out to get her. Nothing was ever her fault. It was always someone or something else. She has two children with two different men and thinks that they can do no wrong, despite them both eventually serving multiple stints in jail and drug rehab programs. To make a stupidly long story just a tiny bit shorter, she was an entitled dingbat. I love her because she is family but I can’t stand her now. Seriously if she was on fire I probably wouldn’t waste my spit on her.
About six months prior to my graduation and nearly as soon as we had unpacked from our move, she ended up moving into our house. It was just her, as her kids were both with their fathers at this point, and literally the only thing my parents asked as compensation was that she take care of some basic house chores (dishes, vacuuming, cleaning the bathrooms, etc...). Honestly I don’t remember why she had to move in with us but it was probably a financial issue of some sort as she never did have two pennies to rub together and probably got evicted (she was currently between husbands at this time btw). I could be wrong and she might have had a more legitimate reason but I was only 17 (18 by graduation) so more or less oblivious to everything. The first couple of weeks were really fun! We would stay up on the weekends together and watch old Alfred Hitchcock and The Twilight Zone shows and movies. She even taught me how to make homemade flour tortillas and real guacamole. In the beginning she was like a big kid. Almost like a sister (as an only child this was a new concept to me).
Then it all began to fall apart. One day she didn’t feel well. Her back hurt. Her hands hurt. A million ailments. It was always something and she obviously enjoyed the limelight. She couldn’t vacuum because her back hurt too badly. She couldn’t wash the dinner dishes because she was sure she had arthritis in her hands. She had looked up her symptoms online so she KNEW what was wrong with herself. Seriously guys, we need to petition the World’s governments to pass a law that people like my aunt can NOT visit medical diagnosis websites. Anyway, It wasn’t that she didn’t WANT to help out around the house (which was my parents ONLY stipulation for her staying with us rent free) it was just that she “was sick” or her “arthritis was acting up” and COULDN’T. Right... So all the chores my folks asked her to take care of (in lieu of rent...) became my job. Vacuuming, cleaning bathrooms, dusting, dishes, laundry, cooking dinner, etc.... EVERY day. On top of school and homework (Maybe that’s why those six months were cloudy and fuzzy - lack of sleep!).
Over the weeks and months she had more and more doctor appointments and apparently she found one willing to indulge her fantasy of ill health in order to get a bigger paycheck for himself. She had more and more restrictions as to what she could or couldn’t do (in regards to how much time standing or a maximum weight she could lift). Her doctor began prescribing her crazy amounts of pills to take “for the pain,” her “anxiety,” and god only knows what else. Now on top of her issues she began calling herself disabled and began demanding that we three (mom, dad, and me) do things for her that she was perfectly capable of doing a just couple of days or weeks before. She needed help making her bed, making her breakfast, etc... She had no job. She would sleep until a crazy late hour in the afternoon, come downstairs to the main family television, demand that she watch her shows, do practically nothing the rest of the day besides watch tv and eat (she never seemed to have trouble waddling, without struggle or pain I might add, between the fridge in the kitchen and the living room couch balancing snacks and sodas...), then be back in bed by 9pm or so. Of course demanding silence as she needed to rest to feel better. She had no hobbies. No friends. No household contributions. No discipline. No motivation.
My home life was now playing out exactly like my own ridiculously tacky soap-opera starring Cinderella or something because there was always some kind of drama - my aunt having XYZ problems, my parents exasperated but never standing up for themselves in their own home, and me playing the role of some kind of servant and “whipping boy (girl).” My folks began catering to aunties every demand in order to, in their own minds, keep the peace. All of my aunt’s chores fell to me to complete on top of school and homework. If I ever spoke up about it all I was told to quit being a selfish brat. I needed to be grow up, recognize that auntie was sick, life’s not fair, and I need to pitch in and be a contributing member of the family, blah, blah,blah. I had zero free time between school, catching up on graduation requirements, household chores, cooking dinner, and taking care of/ waiting on my aunt. Even weekends were spent with chores and homework.
Eventually my “dear” auntie’s corrupt doctor prescribed a wheelchair for her day to day activities. Apparently he thought that her back issues had developed into a serious problem and her doctor thought it was in her best interest to not have her walking around much. By this point I knew her doctor was a quack and shady as heck but I figured he was still a doctor and an adult. so no need to press for a second opinion. Being young I naively believed that surely he knew what he was doing (yeah he did, he wanted a paycheck...). Yay... So yeah, a wheelchair. It was a ridiculous and clunky thing. She could barely navigate it around the main floor of our house (though never had an issue climbing the stairs to her bedroom). She insisted on taking it wherever we went and she also coerced my parents into trading in one of their cars for an SUV in order to fit the four of us and her chair. Most embarrassing was when my mom, auntie, and I would go to the grocery store. In leu of her own wheelchair she would always grab one of the stores electric ones. She would often forget her “disability” in order to walk quickly and grab something she forgot and I can’t even begin to count the dirty looks we got. It was obvious that she had no physical issues and all she did was take a chair from someone who might have truly needed it.
Aunt and I didn’t spend much time together anymore by this point because 1. I had my end of year finals and other schoolwork prior to my graduation, 2. I literally had no free time due to all the extra chores, and 3. I just couldn’t stand being around her anymore. This woman was... well I can’t think of a categorization for her as it would be an insult to the fellow people/items/things classified as such. Even to call her a “Karen” would be an insult to other “Karen’s.” Seriously, NOTHING was wrong with her physically. I had spied her at several businesses when she was out on her own and such walking around (even carrying the store’s hand baskets with the things needed. Walking fine. No wheelchair in sight. She might have mental issues (looking back I have strong theories...) but there was definitely nothing wrong in regards to her body or bodily functions. Her back and legs might hurt but if she would get some exercise and lose a few pounds she’d most likely be relieved of those pains. If she would get off the copious number of bogus prescriptions she would not feel tired, weak, or fuzzy all the time. And Redbull and other caffeinated or alcoholic beverages are no good for anyone yet she seemed to be going through several of each daily based on the number of empty cans and bottles I found in her room later. She just used her (shady) doctor to continue her “poor me” persona. She liked the attention.
So yeah, the weeks pass and now my high school graduation was looming. My parents were (at that point) over the moon at my coming commencement exercises and advancement into the grownup world. They were so proud because I worked my butt off to keep my grades high and also fulfill the graduation requirements of my new school (This state had a specific requirement that high school seniors completed and received a passing grade on a portfolio of a number of written pieces. This portfolio is normally worked on over all four years of high school. So yeah, as I had transferred in halfway through the school year I had something like six-ish months to finish and pass what my peers had close to four years to complete.) All was generally good in my world outside of the house. Inside the house was different as there was a lot of tension building. My aunt was pretty quiet in the week or so before the ceremony. She went around with a rather sour expression on her face that only got worse when a package from my grandparents (her and my moms parents) arrived. They had sent me a very nice check, a beautifully monogrammed bible, and a 24 karat gold necklace with a diamond solitaire pendant as a graduation gift (all the graduating grandkids in our family received something similar from them, though the boys in the family received a gold watch rather than a necklace). Other cards, gifts, notes, and letters came from other family members and close family friends and it was all displayed in the living room on a console table by the stairs.
The day comes. Yay graduation! It was such a happy day! My mom did my hair in a beautiful braid and I had a new dress and shoes that I bought and paid for myself. As a finishing touch I accessorized with my beautiful new necklace from my grandparents. When I come downstairs my dad seemed choked up and gave me a big hug, calling me a beautiful young woman. My aunt didn’t say a word and only glared at my neck as she sat impatiently in her wheelchair. When she wheeled herself around to head to the SUV in the garage she “accidentally” rammed into the side table where my graduation cards were placed, knocking almost everything onto the floor. She made some sort of a halfhearted apology and commented about how our house was so small. I was determined that she wouldn’t bring my day down so I tried to ignore her mood as best I could. I simply picked everything back up and arranged everything neatly back on the table.
I rode to the school with my parents and aunt (with her wheelchair of course). They dropped me off at the front entrance because I had to be there early for preparations and such and the three of them decided to run to a nearby store for a few drinks and to kill a bit of time before the ceremony started (I had to be there two hours early). My aunt was still in a sour mood and complained that she was hot (note the beautiful weather conditions of the day above) and thirsty. Her back was hurting already. She needed to take her pills, NOW. My dad sighed and told me that he promised they would get back quickly, saying they’d return long before the scheduled start time and they’d find me and let me know when they get back. I waved them off and I headed inside my school to take care of graduation stuff.
Fast forward about two hours. We students were gowned up and sported the typical half cardboard half ribbon and glue caps on our heads. It was time for everything to start but I hadn’t seen my folks arrive back yet. I figured it was no big deal. The place was pretty packed (it was the early 2000’s so no plague doctors or social distancing that we endure today lol) and they probably couldn’t get through to let me know they were there. We lined up and the ceremony started. Music. Marching. Speeches. Blah, blah, blah. My name was called. I heard cheering and looked into the crowd to see that my family was indeed there as they promised. I flashed the obligatory smiles for the schools pictures and then walked off the stage and filed back to my seat. I spent the rest of the ceremony happily cheering for my friends and simply basked in the sunshine and happiness of the day.
After we turned our tassels, were dismissed, and finally released to go to meet our loved ones, I was accosted by my friends and their families. My best friends family hugged me and we all congratulate each other. Excusing myself, I began to look around for my own family. They’re nowhere to be seen. I looked everywhere but I couldn’t find any of them. My happy little bubble burst. The happy day suddenly disappeared and I was left with a sick feeling in my chest. Not only were my parents and aunt not there, but I had no way to get home. There was no way I could have walked home as we lived miles away in suburbia. Plus heels (girls I know y’all understand). All I could do was just stand there in the rapidly emptying parking lot, alone and crying, wearing my graduation gown with my diploma and cap in my hand.
Now that you’ve gotten the novel length backstory let’s return to the event at hand
After the ceremony my best friends mom saw me standing by myself as they were all walking to the parking lot to go home. She walked over to me asking if everything was ok and where my parents were. She said she wanted to meet my parents so they could all congratulate themselves on raising two more amazing young women for society. Typical happy parent feelings I guess. That’s when I finally looked up at her and she saw my tears. After some mumbled conversation between us (can’t remember what I said exactly but more or less that I was stranded) she frowned and said that they would take me home. All this happened before cell phones were a common thing so there was no way to easily contact anyone else and this was my best (and only, if we are being honest) option.
I got in their van and my best friend saw my face. She had been witness to a lot of stuff in regards to my parents and entitled aunt over the past months and all she could do was squeeze my hand in sympathy. She was holding a beautiful bouquet of roses and baby’s breath that she had received from her parents and seemed slightly embarrassed that my parents hadn’t done the same. I only smiled and said that they were gorgeous and I was happy for her. The ride to my house was pretty quiet with only a little tense conversation. My best friends dad was very quiet and drove with a grim expression on his face. I remember seeing him look in the rearview mirror at me once, and he just seemed concerned for me and a little confused about the behavior of my family.
We finally arrived at my home and sure enough my parents SUV was indeed there in the driveway. Best friends mom turned around in her seat and said that she wanted to walk me to the door and make sure all was alright with my folks and aunt (Aka - probably confront them and chew them out for stranding me like that on my graduation day. They’re all Hispanic and have absolutely zero mouth filters. I love them to death!). I said no and that I would be ok. She squeezed my hand and after thanking them for the ride home I stepped out of their van. My best friend leaned out of the van door before I was able to slide it closed and handed me a rose from her own bouquet. She made me promise to call her if I needed her. This girl was and still is the best and dearest friend I have ever had and I love her like a sister. (Bestie, if you ever see this, thanks a bunch for everything. Love ya!)
As soon as I stepped into the house I could feel that the tension in the air was thicker than a London fog. My aunt was lying on the couch in the living room (presumidly to rest her “aching” back), watching tv with a large fast food bag and empty wrappers and plates scattered around on the coffee table nearby, mom was in the kitchen, and dad was probably upstairs in his office. Aunt looked up and coldly demanded to know where I had been. Smirking she says that HER kids would never do something so inconsiderate. My parents were worried. They all thought I would have been home long ago. She said I was so rude and inconsiderate and said that I thought that I was above everyone else in the world because I had received “a little piece of paper.” Dad heard me come in and came downstairs slurping on a fast food drink. He irritably asked where I had been? What was I doing all this time? Why I took so long to get home? Mom came in as well from the kitchen and wanted to know where I was and yelled at me that they were worried. Apparently it was my fault for not knowing they had to leave and my fault I didn’t arrange a ride home. It was my fault that I expected them to stay, etc etc etc. Their language was much more colorful then what I wrote above but I prefer to keep things relatively clean.
All I could do was stand there in the living room, totally dumbfounded. At this point it was a little over three hours since the ceremony began. Almost two hours since my name was called and about forty minutes since the ceremony ended. I asked how they managed to get (and eat apparently) fast food in just the few minutes since the ceremony ended. My dad suddenly looked sheepish and said they had left right after my name was called. Aunt smirked and said “That’s right, I was hot and my back hurt. You know I have to take my pain pills. Plus we were hungry and wanted to get dinner. We even got your favorite! Yours is in the kitchen.” I stared at her blankly for several seconds before my mom told me to wipe the attitude off my face and go eat. Following me into the kitchen she started talking about how they knew I’d get a ride home from somebody. I’d be ok. They weren’t really worried, but I should have come home sooner and not stayed to “play around” after the ceremony.
I spotted a fast food bag on the counter and when I opened it I saw my burger and (already picked at) fries. I hate junk food like that. Certainly not “my favorite.” They normally would have remembered. Regardless, everything was ice cold and unappetizing. They had obviously been home for quite a while. I looked over towards the kitchen table I was surprised to see a large sheet cake. Beautifully decorated with roses, other decorative icing things, and the words:
CONGRATULATIONS GRADUATES!
Cousin’s name (In big letters)
and
My name (It was beneath my cousins name in a smaller font and it looked to be an afterthought and squished in to fit. Even the color of the icing used to write my name was different.).
Big pieces of the cake had already been cut out of it.
I couldn’t understand why a cake for MY graduation day had cousin’s name on it as well. She didn’t attend my school and wasn’t even anywhere nearby as she was living with her dad several states away. Not to mention that she hadn’t even graduated yet! (Side note, my aunts daughter is the same age as I am and was supposed to have the same graduation year, but she was unable to graduate on time due to poor grades and behavioral problems. She had to take make-up evening classes that coming summer and fall and her diploma would eventually reflect the NEXT graduation year. My relationship with her is a whole other can of worms... I have a senior prom story involving her that y’all might enjoy.) While I stared at the cake my mom quickly said that my auntie had ordered it and it was a surprise! Wasn’t that nice of her? If I had been home earlier I could have cut it myself but they all wanted dessert after their burgers so my Aunt did the honors for me.
Something in me finally snapped and I was done.
I turned around and asked my mom point blank why did they leave so early? Why couldn’t they stay for the whole ceremony? Why had they stranded me there without warning? Why they didn’t find some way to get word to me that they needed to leave early? And (admittedly petty) why couldn’t I get my own darn cake without having to share it with a person who wasn’t even graduating that year? She began to unleash a laundry list of my faults. She told me that I was just acting superior because I graduated. I needed to check my attitude. I was rude. I was ungrateful. I was acting like I was better than everyone else. She then said I was rubbing it into my aunts face that I graduated on time and my cousin did not. I needed to consider the struggles, health, and physical limitations of others. Also, I would never amount to anything as I was too dumb to go to collage so I should get used to serving others better than myself. (About the college thing - that’s another story I can share if asked...) On and on.
I was stunned! I had no idea what the heck changed between that morning and now! To this day the only reason I can think of for all of this was that my aunt didn’t like the attention I was getting from my parents and the rest of our family. She probably felt slighted because her daughter hadn’t gotten a check, necklace, or bible from our grandparents yet (Duh, when she called them to whine, my no-nonsense grandma straight up told her “no diploma no graduation gifts” and said that my cousin would get her gift next year if she was able to pass.). She was offended that so much attention had been lavished on me and my accomplishments (graduating with honors despite transferring mid-year) rather than her own daughter or her own “life changing health issues.” She didn’t like the fact that I was in the limelight and not herself. Most likely she started whining and complaining to my parents about my so-called superior and stuck up attitude as soon as they dropped me off before the ceremony. Then whined and complained that she was in pain and needed to go home as soon as possible to take her dang pills and rest. Eventually she filled their ears with enough poison so they left.
So that morning apparently everything was fine but now it wasn’t? Twenty-four hours before I was behaving normally but now I had apparently been acting stuck up? Regardless of all that crap, how was it ok that they left their teenage daughter stranded without knowing how she would be getting home? How could they leave me on such an important and happy day? How could they not even tell me? How could they allow my aunt to whine and complain and then just go along with what she wanted instead of considering my feelings? Did they just not see how badly their actions that day hurt me? How could a parent-child relationship be ruined in the space of a single afternoon?
Suddenly I realized that this hadn’t happened only in a few hours or even a few days. Our relationship had been deteriorating for months. I found out years later that ever since my aunt had come to live with us she had been talking to my parents about imagined insults to her, my perceived superiority, my rudeness, my unwillingness to help out, and my all around bad attitude. She accused me of sneaking boys to my room when my parents weren’t there. She told them that I had confided to her that I hated my parents and their overly strict ways. She said that she saw me smoking cigarettes at my bus stop before school (as she is so “disabled” I have no idea how she managed to walk or roll so far to spy on me). For the record, her accusations were all completely false. My parents were strict yes but usually fair(ish) and I had assumed loving and supportive of me. I also can’t stand cigarette smoke and at this point I was “as pure and physically intact as the day I was born...”. blush Anyway, between her own entitlement and jealousy she realized that I was “doing better” then her own kids and herself and she decided to make my life miserable. At this point I wasn’t even angry. I was just really, really sad. I left the cold food in the bag on the kitchen counter and “my” cake on the table and went upstairs to my bedroom with my diploma and rose.
When I got there I shut the door. When I turned around I saw a devastating sight. My monogrammed bible, on the floor on top of a baking sheet, half the pages torn out, and the remaining pages and cover burned black. The uncashed check from my grandparents torn into tiny pieces and scattered like confetti on top of the ruined gift. My graduation cards and notes torn into what seemed like thousands of pieces and scattered all over my room. I remember falling to my knees, completely numb. I couldn’t even cry. I just held onto my rose and tried to breathe. (It’s doubly sad to remember this now as my grandmother recently passed away and I would have loved to have had that bible.) I knew immediately who had done this - my aunt. She was such an entitled parent that no one can have any type of spotlight unless it was her own kids or herself. If her daughter couldn’t celebrate a graduation then neither could I. If her daughter didn’t get a check then I couldn’t have mine. I was glad I had decided to wear my grandparents necklace because who knows what she would have done with it. All this destruction and my parents were either oblivious or they just didn’t care. This was more or less the beginning of the end for our parent-daughter relationship. I was 18. A legal adult and able to make my own decisions about my own life. With how things were now, I knew my parents couldn’t be a part of it if they were determined to listen to the vitriol that spewed from my aunts mouth.
Aftermath
Within two hours I was over at my best friends house to spend the next few weeks. Within a couple of months I had gotten a job and moved into my own place. I never looked back. After several years I was (And still am!) married to an amazing guy (Only one marriage for me thank-you-very-much, unlike you auntie!). He encouraged me to enroll in college and work towards my bachelors degree and then earn my masters degree. That led to my current amazing career, with some of the best coworkers imaginable, in my chosen field with a more than acceptable salary. Over time I slowly, very slowly, began to grow a little bit closer to my parents. It’s not your typical parent-child relationship anymore, that ended forever when I was eighteen, but cordial.
In the beginning, after I moved out, they tried to do little things for me (and later my new husband as well) but their offers were usually declined, preferring to forge our own way without relying on others for help. Eventually I began to relax around them a bit more and to open my heart again. We’ve talked a lot over the years and they actually eventually apologized for what happened. I guess they initially thought that they were keeping the peace and they just went along with whatever my aunt said. They trusted her, as an adult, over me. Eventually they began to agree with her opinions and they never thought to question what she told them about me. At one point my mom even said that she wondered if I was on drugs during this time based on the stories my aunt was telling her. The irony... Now, more than a decade and a half later, my relationship with my mom and dad is pretty great. Less than parent-child but way more than friends.
My aunt ended up moving out of my parents house and into a nearby trashy apartment not long after my graduation, citing an unpleasant atmosphere as her reasoning. (Yeah, I wonder why...) My folks paid her rent, utilities, paid for a car (including gas and insurance) and bought her groceries for a couple of years before my dad finally grew a pair and put his foot down. She started dating a lazy idiot guy who received some kind of government pension and once he moved in with her that’s how they more or less supported themselves. She still occasionally comes crawling to my mom for money for smokes, gas, or whatever. Dad would, at best, give her a hard NO and at worst tell her exactly what he thought about her. So she knows not to go near him asking for anything. Sometimes mom gives her a few dollars but usually not, as even mom has grown tired of my aunts antics, entitlement, and poisonous attitude. So my aunt and her boy toy survive on a cycle of a small monthly government pension, payday loans, and begging the family for money. Of course neither of them have a job due to their “disabilities.
Interesting side note, after my aunt moved into her apartment she no longer needed a wheelchair! It’s a miracle! Or most likely she couldn’t use it because her new place was tiny, on the 2nd floor, and wasn’t an ADA home (bcause she couldn’t qualify for one considering she gasp wasn’t medically considered disabled!). It was just a regular rundown one bedroom one bath apartment and all she (with my parents support at the time) could afford. Oh, and also she had to stop seeing her quack doctor as my parents eventually stopped paying that bill too. I guess it’s a win win for her physical health as she got more exercise, lost some of the weight she had piled on while living with us, and was forced off her prescriptions as she no longer had a willing doctor to prescribe them. I’m sure the withdrawal was hell but I have zero sympathy. She’s still a leech who cannot stand to hear about anyone’s happiness or success (she was placing bets on my wedding day how long my marriage would last) and always manages to work her aches, pains, dire situations and the dubious achievements of her kids (who both have criminal records, stints in drug and alcohol rehab programs, several divorces between them, and children outside of marriage) into any conversation she has with anyone. A leopard cannot change its spots.
So yeah, the best “revenge” I can imagine is my “dear” aunt stewing, every single day across all these years, in the knowledge that I have no criminal record, no drug charges, a happy marriage, no divorces, two degrees, a successful career, money in the bank, and a very good relationship with my parents. She has to endure my folks bragging to the whole family about my (and my husband’s) successful life and accomplishments in my job. All without any assistance from anyone. Typical parent behavior as my other cousins parents all (justifiably) do the same for their kids. All my aunt can contribute is that cousin 1 managed to be paroled and now she has a steady minimum wage job (don’t hear much of anything about cousin 2 as he’s literally a deadbeat.). I guess in a way she pushed me to work towards the best life I could possibly have. So... thanks auntie?
Preemptive answers to questions I might be asked:
1) Yes I totally realize that some people have a string of rotten luck which forces their hand to reach out for help. If you are able you should definitely feel comfortable enough to reach out a hand to family for assistance. I call bs on my aunts story of hardship only because she never showed any gratitude to my folks and to this day I hear that she still insists that I was the troublemaker she said I was. She never tried to look for employment, never did anything to get back on her feet, and spent all day every day on her rear end.
2) I don’t care if people have kids outside a traditional family environment. In many cases one or both partners don’t find the need for it and still manage to have a wonderful family. What I object to is a bum, alcoholic, or drug addict bringing children into this world without having a stable home life and the necessary resources to raise them properly (you know, with morals and manners and such). I know tons of single moms and dads who are superstar parents with great kids. Big shout out to all the awesome single parents. Y’all are an inspiration!
3) Yeah this might seem like either a dumb story or completely fake to some folks. But I assure you, it happened. Some parts might be boring but, as I said in the beginning, I don’t see the point in adding embellishments to make anything more interesting. It was a crappy situation but I guess it’s important to remember that the truth can be stranger than fiction.
If you actually got this far, you are a seriously awesome trooper and deserve a gold star! Thanks for reading. I hope you had a blessed Christmas and here’s hoping we all have a happy and safe New Year! ❤️
P.S.
I know there are channels on YouTube who read crazy Reddit stories. If there is anyone who is interested and wants to read this for a video, feel free to do so (just send me the link when you do!). It might take an entire video to get through it all though so no worries if you’d rather give this one a pass.
EDIT
I’ve received a few messages with questions so I’ll post the answers here.
No I have no idea how my aunt played the system. After later talking to my folks I learned that her doctor didn’t practice in a hospital but instead had some sort of private practice in his home. We lived in a rather rural area and going to “a real city hospital” was difficult for some people. I’m definitely no doctor or lawyer so I don’t know the legality of any of it, but I’m pretty sure he fudged some things in order for him to get a paycheck (like not accepting insurance, taking only cash, and being liberal with prescriptions and the like). Small town politics are what kept him in business I guess.
No, my aunt never tried filing for actual disability or anything official through the government. She was crazy enough to get a wheelchair and call herself disabled but thankfully not crazy enough to try to fool Uncle Sam.
After a few weeks my grandparents did actually inquire about why I hadn’t cashed or deposited their check. Still being a bit of a doormat I made up an excuse about the check being damaged and the bank couldn’t accept it. They sent me a new check (to my best friends address where I was staying at the time) which I used to buy my first car. They didn’t question me directly as to why I didn’t want it sent to my parents house but I’m pretty sure they knew that there were some issues.
I never told my grandparents about the Bible. My grandma was very religious and I think the knowledge of one of her daughters actually burning a bible would have hurt her too much.

FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS
First and foremost, these are my opinions and there are many opinions out there. You should seek them all out. This is a nuanced hobby and there is much to learn. Don't sweat it though. These are football cards, it's not that serious. If you have a question, reply and I'll get back to you.
What you should know before we start a conversation about football cards

1. The more things change, the more things stay the same. Football cards are still kind of a waste of money. They weren't a good bet 30 years ago, they aren't now. Collect because you enjoy the hobby, because you enjoy the sport & its players. If you just like the thrill of the chase that comes from opening packs, hey, it's a free country, have a blast. However, people do get addicted to ripping packs. Be careful! Try to pace yourself. Try to have a budget. Be aware that prices are at an all-time high yet resale values continue to plummet as the rookie shine wears off. Take for example a guy like Eddie Lacy. A few years ago, he was on top of the sport after a monster start to his career. Now? His cards aren't worth jack. For every Tom Brady rookie card, there are a billion cards from forgotten bums who take up space in our closets.
   
2. Panini is the dominant brand. They also own Donruss & Score. Topps & Upper Deck are (basically) out of the NFL card market. Panini has the NFL license so they are the only card company who can use logos and team names. Every other brand is second-class. But hey, if that's cool with you, enjoy what those other brands have to offer. You do get more autos and better bang for your buck but for an inferior, less desirable, poor resale product.
   

What to buy/collect?
There are no good answers here. Generally, I'd recommend purchasing the cheapest panini/donruss/score pack/box you can find just to get your feet wet and set expectations. If you want to get more specific, I recommend going on ebay and browsing what catches your eye. Like the Steelers? Look up 2021 steelers and filter by the football cards category. Like Russell Wilson? Look up his rookie cards, look up his autos. Ultimately, you should collect what you enjoy. I collect Virginia Tech players in their college uniform. Everybody has their thing so try to find that.
What's a good investment?
Not everyone will agree with me. However, I don't believe you should collect to invest or to make money. A good value would be to not spend your money on football cards. Again, this is a hobby. You don't want your retirement tied to the success of Justin Herbert's career. If price is a concern in any way, you shouldn't be spending your hard-earned dollars on football cards. I've been in the hobby for many years now and to be perfectly blunt, there are a lot of broke dummies who spend every extra dollar and then some on this hobby. I think it's a joke. It's not impossible to make money buying/selling cards, it's just exceedingly unlikely and impractical. I sell cards on ebay because I buy them for pennies on the dollar from people second-hand. That's the safest and smartest way to do it if you really want to try. Please feel free to contact me if you have questions about selling.
Cards are like buying new cars. Once you drive off the lot (or open the pack of cards) the resale value automatically drops. Again, almost all cards lose significant value over time. Look up any all-time great player and look how much their rookie cards are going for. Excluding Tom Brady, just about every superstar Hall of Fame player from before the 90s is cheap (compared to prices for today's players).
As for finding bang for your buck, you are always best off buying second-hand. But you also need to be hypervigilant to check prices elsewhere to ensure you're paying a fair price. Prices on cards, packs, boxes and cases adjust all the time and the big card sellers online all have ebay accounts with millions of listings and they see how prices move and what sells. You can try to predict how the market will move, but good luck! Finally, big sellers/dealers buy their product direct from Panini at a wholesale dealer discount. They buy it for less and can sell it for less and still make money. If you think you can make money over the long-term buying cards at full price, then reselling them, you are mistaken.
Finding your card's value
Besides paying for a Beckett subscription, you can also go to ebay to search for completed sales for your card. Search the card (year, brand, set, player) then you can filter results based on sales. If that specific card isn't there, you can also check for similar cards. Say you have a 2018 Russell Wilson auto, look up his autos from that year or from that set to get a close estimate. Or if you have a card #ed to 50, check for other #ed to 50 cards of that player from other sets in that year. That's your best estimate. However, keep in mind some products are obviously worth more. a #/10 Score card will generally not be worth as much as a #/10 Panini national treasures card of the same player.
Help IDing a card
Beckett has basically card to ever exist on its platform. If you can't find it, I can assure you it's there. Try googling every word/yeaphrase/name on the card/item before asking me. You can also search on ebay or COMC or sportlots, which are a few of the many card selling platforms, and their search results include pics (usually) so it's easier to find what you're looking for.
Where to buy?
Local card stores for packs/boxes/cases. For singles, ebay will likely have the best deals and your best options. Keep in mind this hobby is growing so demand is high on new product. These are not endorsements or sponsors but I recommend shopping at dacardworld.com, blowoutcards.com, or steelcitycollectibles.com. There are a handful of other bigger card shops but these are the big 3 as far as I know. They sell hobby products (I'll clarify what this means below). And of course, if feasible for you, you can also shop at your local card store (they also sell hobby products). To find the nearest store, google "local card store" or "sports card stores near me"... In my opinion, you should NEVER spend money at Walmart or Target and ALWAYS buy from local card stores.
What is a break? How do I join? Who are the best breakers?
First and foremost, I am of the opinion that breaking is gambling. Therefore, I think it's just plain dumb so I have nothing positive to say about it.
What is a break? A break is when you "buy into" a split portion of a box/case of cards by team (sometimes by division or conference or even by sport, it all depends on the product.) So a breaker buys the box/case of cards, opens them live on video stream so you can watch the results. Then if say you bought the Kansas City Chiefs portion, all the Chiefs cards are yours.
The point of this is that you can buy into a product at a fraction of the cost. Sometimes it goes in your favor and you get a bunch of hits. Sometimes you get little to nothing.
Each breaker has their own rules on how to give out multi-player cards, whether they mail out base cards or not, how much they price it, how they pack/mail your cards, how they stream it. There are generally accepted practices but it's up to you to do your due diligence and read the rules for each breaker.
Ultimately, even if you don't view it as gambling, I feel with breaks that you are only paying more for less since you have to pay a middle man (the breaker). In fact, four people get paid before you see your cards (Panini, wherever they bought the cards from, the breaker and the post office.) Why keep adding middle men to the process of buying cards? I don't get it, but breaks are hugely popular. Whatever floats your boat!
What is a razz?
If you don't think breaking is gambling, I've got another one for you. RAZZING.
A razz is something like a raffle or lottery. Say I have a card that I think it worth $100. I can "razz" it, which means the razzer breaks up the card into "lines" or spots or chances to win that card. So like I said, let's say a card is worth $100, I can razz 10 spots for $10 per spot. So 10 people buy into the razz at $10 each, the razzer collects $100, then there will be a lottery for the card. So then, the razzer will assign a number to each entry, plug those numbers into a random number generator and it'll spit out a random number that indicates who won.
Of course, there's some mild strategy involved. The tricky thing is you can buy multiple spots. So someone could buy 5 of the 10 spots. Or you could buy just 1 and hope to get lucky. That's the fun I suppose. To buy a $100 card for $10. Usually the razzer will collect all the money first, then run the razz. So there is a fair amount of trust necessary here. First, you have to send out the money to the razzer and to trust the results of the razz are fair. You also have to know your cards well because a razzer can easily try to razz a card for double what it's worth if his audience is large enough and eager enough to participate. It's can be a free for all.
Hobby vs. Retail
In order to prop up local card stores and keep driving business to them, there are hobby and retail products. Hobby products (packs/boxes/cases) generally have the best cards and highest value cards and best odds for autographs/hits per box when compared to retail products. Retail products are the boxes/packs you will find at stores like Walmart and Target.
The reason for the two separate types of products is because of economics. Walmart has hundreds of stores and their whole business model is based on bulk buying. They can buy a million boxes and their bulk purchasing allows them to undercut the prices of the average mom and pop shop. Your local card store can't buy the same amount of product as Walmart/Target or sell the same amount so their prices have to be higher. In the end, all you need to know is that hobby products are the better bang for your buck. Retail products have worse autos from more random, low-level rookies. You can still get lucky and hit a top rookie auto in retail, it's not impossible. The odds are just less in your favor.
Card supplies/storage?
These are not endorsements/sponsors. BCW, Cardboard Gold, Ultra Pro. I would avoid buying any of these products through a store (walmart, target etc. Even a card store) when you can typically buy direct from them. At least if you're buying in bulk. A pack or two of top loaders or plastic sleeves will generally cost the same wherever you shop.
Grading
Should you get it graded? Meh. If you're going to sell for max value, yes. If you want to really protect the card long term and preserve its value in case you want to sell it later, yes. If these things don't matter to you, then no. If you're going to keep the card and its value doesn't really matter to you, no. You shouldn't. Grading is not cheap, especially if you're only grading a card or two. So if you're happy to just stick it in a toploader and keep it forever, don't grade. If you think your grandkids will want to sell it 50 years from now, sure, why not, get it graded. Generally speaking PSA is best for older cards. BGS is best for newer cards.
Base, insert, parallel, refractor, prizm?
I found this glossary of sports cards terms on Upper Deck's site that I think does a good job of explaining things.
If you have a question, please reply.

You wont believe this.
Sara told her boss Leon as she sat down at the lunch table.
“Wont believe what?” He smiled at her as he ate.
“My husband. He not only picked out this outfit i wore today. But he asked me to help him out by locking his dick up. How messed up is that?” Sara said as she sat and adjusted her salad on her lunch tray.
Leon about choked on his food. “What?”
“See. I told you you wouldn’t believe it! What kind of a freak would want his wife, no. Help his wife wear a dress this clingy, and have me wear my sexiest sheer lingerie to work and then want her to lock his dick in some sort of thingy to keep him from getting an erection. Can you believe he told me that it will keep him from jerking off while thinking of how sexy i am and all the guys hitting on me? God i married a fucking looser!” She vented.
Leon leaned back in his chair a little now paying complete attention to Sara. Even though he had known her for a few years from working at the same hospital, he sort of kept his distance since she was married. But that didn’t mean he hadn’t noticed that since her marriage she had started working out and losing weight. He just thought married life was treating her well.
He now looked closer at her. She was wearing an off the shoulder little black dress and knee high boots with black tights. The dress clung to her body enough to show her large breasts and flat stomach. Her short blonde hair and makeup looked even more flawless than usual. Leon could only imagine the sheer bra and panties she mentioned.
“Well i can say. If your husband picked out that get up. He has just as good a taste in women’s clothes as he does in beautiful women.” Leon said while looking at her like a piece of meat waiting for her to respond.
Sara looked up to see his big brown eyes as she noticed how he looked at her. She blushed then looked down at her salad. “Um. Im sorry. I mean. Um thanks i guess. Its just. Today has been really off i guess. And i really shouldn’t be talking to you about this. But you are my closest guy friend and i just felt i needed a mans input on this.” She stuttered.
When Sara looked at his face And blushed and looked away Leon smiled and watched as she played with her food. She looked like the hot cheerleader on campus nervous to talk to the jocks. He chuckled. “Well. I feel privileged you picked me Sara. But i already gave you my input. You look amazing in that outfit. Your husband. Whats his name? Did an excellent job getting you dressed today.” Leon bragged pretending to ignore her.
“Chris. His name is Chris. “. Sara said. “And yes. He selected all of this. Even ironed it. And even helped me put it on. At first i thought it sort of odd. Its was sexier then i usually wear. Much less to work. But every since i did. Its like everyone has treated me different. The security guards about tripped over themselves just to open the door for me. The orderlies have all walked past my desk at least a dozen times. All making a point to speak. I have even gotten compliments from the nurses asking where i got it. And now. Just a minute ago. You looked at me differently too. Like you were seeing me for the first time. And im guessing its all from how im dressed. I guess Chris is right after all. “. Sara sighed as she nibbled her lunch.
Loen laughed. “Well i cant speak for everyone else. But its not everyday. The mousey little married woman from accounting that usually shows up at the same cafeteria lunch table wearing scrubs and sneakers, arrives dressed to the nines. Like she is going on a romantic dinner date. Sits down accross from me and mentions how her husband apparently gets off knowing other men hit on his wife. “. Leon boasted. “Much less that locking up his little pecker comment. I mean how would you look at someone after that?”
Sara blushed again as she looked again at Leon. His mocha skin contrasting with his broad white smile. His doctors scrubs barely concealing his tall muscular frame from his collegiate football career. He had to be at least 6’4 and 250 lbs. Sara had always considered Leon the ideal man. Tall. Muscular. Athletic. Driven. He was also the up and coming plastic surgeon at the hospital. She could feel her pulse race as he looked her up and down. as she finally felt she had his full attention for the first time.
“I don’t know. Like some sort of basket case i guess. Maybe i shouldn’t have mentioned it. Just forget about it.” Sara went back to eating her lunch.
“Whoa. Wait a minute. What type of a man would i be if i didn’t help a beautiful, and i mean really beautiful damsel in distress? Now come on. What do you want to know? I only have about twenty minutes before my next appointment. If we don’t get it sorted today we could set up something for same time tomorrow in my office. I have a full hour. For more privacy. You could let your little hubby dress you up again. I think you would look stunning in something red.” Leon chuckled again.
Sara smiled. “Well whats your opinion? Lol. Not on my looks. Thanks again. On my husbands ideas about locking him up?”
“Well. When i was in college i took psychology and did a paper on relationship dynamics. I enjoyed it so much that i made my minor in psychology with emphasis on relationship dynamics and couples counseling. Figured if plastic surgery wasn’t going good i could us that as a fall back. Either way i get to help out damsels in distress. Lol”. Leon laughed. “It seems like you married a ‘beta’ male that is hoping you would take a more dominant role in the relationship. Now don’t panic. Its pretty common. He obviously is very in love with you and want the best for you. I mean look how stunning he has you right now. So first off don’t worry. You aren’t going to lose him. Second off. There is no need to rush this. Just enjoy all of his attention and listen to him. Right now the ball is in your court. Lol. Or at least both of his. Lol. Now. Remember. Same time tomorrow. My office. I will order in food. And you get Chrissy to dress you in red. Tell him you have a lunch date and want to look your sexiest. Lol. Trust me. Lol. Gotta go. See you tomorrow!”
Leon got up and left Sara sitting there questioning his comments. Chris was a beta male? But it had been almost three years since the wedding. He had never done anything like this before now. Up until now it had just been vanilla missionary sex every few days. Which usually resulted in him getting excited and only lasting a minute or two inside her before cumming and passing out leaving her unsatisfied.
Maybe Leon was right. Was she overthinking this whole thing? What did she have to lose? Maybe she would play along a little and see where it takes her.
After lunch Sara returned to her office and another parade of guys just dropping by to check on this or that. At the end of the day she couldn’t stop smiling as the guards again opened the doors for her but this time called her by name. Now it seemed like every man at the hospital knew who Mrs Sara Jones was and liked what they saw!
At home Sara entered the house to the smell of something cooking in the kitchen. Chris greeted her at the door with her favorite drink in his hand. Leading her to her favorite chair and turning on the news on tv. This was her favorite way to unwind.
“So. Here is your martini. Just relax while i finish dinner. Your favorite. Burnt chicken and asparagus.” Chris gently kissed her before going back in the kitchen to check on things. Only to return a few minutes later.
“So? Did you have a good day?” He asked.
“Yes. It was okay. Just busy busy all day. Only left my office for lunch.” Sara tried to downplay the attention she got.
“Oh i bet honey. Would you like me to help you slip off your boots and rub your feet?” Chris asked.
“Mmm. No. Just let me relax. Maybe after dinner i will let you touch my feet. Just call me when dinner is ready.” Sara dismissed him sort of rudely but quickly noticed how he followed her request and went back in the kitchen.
Sara watched the news and finished her drink. Beta male she thought. “Oh Chris. Can i get a refill?” She called out.
Chris quickly appeared refilling her martini. “There you go honey. Dinner is just finishing. I will make your plate in the kitchen. “ he then disappeared back into the kitchen.
Sara smiled to herself as she sipped her drink before heading into the kitchen to find him setting the table. “Mmmm. Smells good honey.” She said as she sat down. Chris fixed his plate sitting across from her.
“So? Did you have time to think about my proposal honey?” Chris asked between bites.
“What proposal is that Chris?” Sara asked pretending she didnt know.
Chris blushed as he made eye contact with her. “About... um chastity.” He stuttered looking down.
“Oh. You mean about me locking your little pee pee in a cage? Mmm. I mean i thought about it a little. As much as it deserved. Lol. “Sara giggled between bites. “I mean why shouldn’t we try it. Not like that little thing has ever done anything for me other than dribble cummies on me. But i still don’t understand how locking up that dinky thing is going to improve anything for me? You know. How is this chastity thing going to benefit me in any way? Not like i will be getting anything out of it at all.”
Sara looked at Chris reaction. He thought about what she said. “Well. I think. That if you lock me in chastity that i will be more focused on work and less on touching my dick....”
Sara laughed. “Your per pee. You certainly can even call that a dick. My own fingers are longer and thicker than it is. “ sara sounded a little angry.
“Okay. I can understand that. I think it will keep me from touching my pee pee. Plus it will help me be a better husband and focus on making sure you orgasm. And help me understand how you could go so long without cumming. Didn’t you say you have never cum since we got married?” Chris spoke but never looked up.
“Mmmm. Well. It sounds like you put in a lot of thought about locking up your pee pee. But i still don’t get what is in it for me? Just how are you going to make sure i reach orgasm?” Sara asked sitting up at the table. Pushing her breasts out as she arched her back. “I mean. You haven’t been able to in the last three years and now you are just going to make it happen?” Sara smiled.
“No. Its not like that. Its.... well. I would be willing to try things that i wasn’t willing to in the past to help you.” Chris stuttered.
“Oh really. Name some things. Lets see if you remember anything i ever talked about.” Sara crossed her arms waiting.
“Like me um orally servicing you.” He said.
“Lol. Licking my pussy! You say it like its a hospital procedure. Licking my pussy! So you are saying that if i lock up your dinky doodle that you will lick my pussy? Wow. I should be so lucky.” Sara scolded then left the table.
“Chris. Look at me. I will keep thinking about locking up your tiny tinkle. Until i decide you can sleep in the spare room. Make sure you clean the kitchen and finish the laundry before going to bed. Oh. And tomorrow i have an important lunch date and i want to look super sexy. Something in red would be perfect. You know what i look good in. And dont disturb me. I have lots of research to do tonight!” Sara said watching Chris response.
His eyes were on her and his look of nervousness changed to hope as she said she would think about it. Then his eyes went wide as she mentioned her lunch date. Then a look of lust came over him as she mentioned wearing red. He loved her in red. She was smiling and running her hand down over her hip as if she was thinking of something sexy. Then as his mouth opened to ask she basically shut him down telling him not to disturb her. Thats how she left him as she wiggled her hips all the way to the master bedroom shutting the door.
Inside the room. Sara giggled as she pictured him sitting there. Mouth agape. Watching her. She could feel her nipples harden. Leon was right. Chris was definitely a ‘beta’. No real man would let his wife lock up his cock much less make him sleep in the guest room. Why hadn’t she picked up on this sooner.
Sara spent a little time on the laptop before going to sleep. But before she did she found a web site full of chastity videos. She left the lap top open and clicked play making sure the audio was turned up enough that Chris would be able to hear from the hall if he tried to listen. Then she fell asleep knowing Chris would think she stayed up all night researching it.
The next morning Sara got up feeling refreshed. She glanced at the computer screen to see a large muscular black man wearing leather explaining to a young well dressed white woman how to lock her husband in chastity as he manipulated her husbands genitals into a cage. She quickly flagged that video and shut down the lap top before calling for Chris as she jumped in the shower.
Chris walked into the bathroom as she showered. “Chris! What are you doing? Get out. I read that you chastity types aren’t allowed to see naked women because you get overly excited. Now stand outside the door. Are you there?” Sara screamed.
“Yes. Im here.” He responded.
“Listen. Im running late. So just lay out what you want me to wear for my lunch date on the bed. And it better be sexy. I really want to leave an impression today. I should be dressed before you leave for work so you can see how i look. Just wait down stairs. I want to make an entrance. But if not i guess it doesn’t really matter. Not like I’m wearing this for you anyway. Now stop pestering me. Im sure you have to plenty to do. Oh. And you better not be touching your pee pee today at all. Hear me?” Sara smiled to herself as she said it. Knowing Chris was probably hard as a rock outside the door.
“Yes. I hear you Sara.” Chris said before picking out her outfit and laying it on the bed. He then got dressed for work and went downstairs to wait.
Sara finished in the shower and dried off. She then opened the bathroom door to see what Chris had laid out on the bed. She smiled as she recognized it right away. There were sheer nude thigh high stockings with wide red lace bands at the top. Next to that was a black satin with red lace trim teddy. It was something that Chris had bought her for valentines one year that she had never worn for him. Then a red dress that was part sheer and part opaque design that revealed just enough but not too much. And a pair of five inch ankle strap high heels.
Sara smiled to herself thinking he had selected well. This was a little over the top to wear to work but not unacceptable or overly slutty.
She quickly put the lingerie on then finished her hair and makeup. Noting that Chris would have to leave for work soon. She pulled on the red dress and heels before opening the door.
Entering the living room Chris was in awe. Sara was stunning. She never wore heels that high. In those heels she was a full two inches taller than him. She strutted across the room like she wore them all the time.
“Well? Am i going to make a good impression? “. She asked as she applied bright red lipstick. “Um. Don’t you think you better go? Before you get into trouble?” Sara giggled as he looked at his watch then left.
Sara arrived at work and was again greeted by security guards holding the door for her. And office guys staring and stumbling to speak to her. Once at her desk she got busy looking forward for her lunch ‘date’ with Leon.
She left her desk in plenty of time to reach Leons office by 12. Inside she found him seated at his large desk talking on the phone. As she knocked on the open door frame he saw her and immediately a broad smile crossed his face.
“Hey Tom. Im going to have to let you go buddy. My lunch date is here and she deserves my full attention.” Leon said as he put the phone down the quickly stood up to greet Sara. “Well hello beautiful. I do believe i was right. Red is definitely your color. Give me a twirl. Wow. Well. Please. Sit. Our food was delivered just a bit ago. Now. Where do we start? “. Leon was again giving Sara that lust full look as he opened the food containers then sat back in his chair.
Sara smiled. “Why thank you kind Sir. Aren’t you the perfect gentleman. “. She said laughing.
They both started eating. “Well. First things first. Did anything new develop last night? Im assuming you did as i told you and had him pick you out something red for our ‘date’ today?” Leon asked.
“Yes. You were right. You should have seen his face when i told him i had a date and wanted to wear red. His eyes got so big!” Sara explained.
“See. Typical beta male material. No Alpha male would allow you to date much less send you to them dressed like this. You look amazing by the way.” Leon stated.
Sara blushed as she adjusted her dress as she did feel a little slutty dressed like that. “Well? I gave to tell you that at dinner he actually asked me again if i had decided if i was going to lock his dick up. I told him there wasn’t anything in it for me and then i made him sleep in the spare room and didn’t let him see me naked or getting dressed this morning. You should have seen his little boner tenting his khakis as he left for work. It wasn’t a very big tent mind you. Lol l don’t know what got into me yesterday. Lol. Then today. I swear i smiled every time i thought of meeting with you for our ‘date’.” Sara explained.
“Lol. Very good. Very good. See. I told you he was a beta. Now the real fun starts for you.” Leon said
“Real fun? What do you mean?” Sara stopped eating to look at Leon.
“Well you have obviously been enjoying yourself today. Bossing your little hubby around. Getting more alpha male attention. And hubby has gone along with it right? Well now you get to really push his buttons. You got him on the hook. Don’t just real him in and jerk him out the water. No. You got to play him. You know. Wear him out. Give him hope. Then pull him in closer. Really enjoy the fight. The struggle. Then you pull him in.” Leon explained as Sara thought about it.
“So you are saying i shouldn’t put him in chastity?” Sara asked.
“Lol. No. Im not saying you shouldn’t. Im saying you should make him work to get himself locked in chastity. Don’t just give him what he wants. Get him to do things that you don’t think he would ever do just to earn the privilege of you locking him in chastity. Does that make more sense?” Leon asked as Saras beautiful green eyes sparkled.
“Yeah. I think so. Like make him go down on me before locking his little dicky up.” Sara said.
“Lol. No. Look sara. Asking a man to eat a beautiful womans tight little pink pussy like you obviously have would be a reward. I’m talking about getting him to do things that no real man. No Alpha male would ever do. Like .....” Leon paused as if to think.
“Like shave his body hair? Or wear panties.” Sara said. “I noticed that in my chastity research that all the guys into chastity did both of those things.”
“Yes. Yes. Perfect. Now you are thinking Sara. Then once he confirms to you that he is not an Alpha male. You lock him up. Then you have him do more beta stuff so you will keep him locked up. Like make him pay his way in chastity. Say once a week you rethink it and make him prove again that he really wants it. Lol. Now once he is in chastity you can reward him by letting him lick your sweet pussy. But i like the whole idea of him not seeing your naked body anymore. So when he does lick you make him wear a blindfold. Or tie his hands so he cant touch you. Tell him your body is for Alpha males only. Stuff like that. Just trust me Sara. If you embrace this you are going to have so much fun.” Leon and Sara smiled at each other as they ate.
After lunch Leon cleaned up his desk before helping Sara out of her chair. “So. Sara? Did little Chrissy also pick out something equally sexy for underneath?”
Sara blushed not expecting any questions like that. “Um. Yes he did actually. Something pretty racy and something i would never wear to work. Hell i have never even wore this for him.”
Leon smiled. “Really? Well whats the purpose of wearing something like that if you cant show it off to some one?”
Sara looked at him. Blushing. “You are a very beautiful woman Sara. You deserve to have a real man look at you. And you cant consider this cheating since your little hubby not only knew you had a date but he dressed you like this. Its the least you can do to at least show off his handy work. Come on. Give me a nice show before lunch is over. “. Leon smiled
Sara lowered her eyes. The sat her things down on the large desk as Leon leaned back into his leather chair. She slowly reached down grabbing the hem of her dress then pulled it up and over her head in one swift motion. Leaving her in just the teddy stockings and heels.
“Wow. Sara. You look amazing.” Leon said as his eyes covered every inch of her body as he leaned back letting his hand slip into his lap to adjust his growing bulge. “That Chris of yours really knows how to flatter your curves. So you never wore this for him? It looks special. I bet little Chrissy bought it for you. Lol. It doesnt look like something a woman would buy for herself. Now lets the back.”
Sara turned slowly revealing the black thong back separating her cheeks. Leon again had to adjust his growing cock in his pants. “Mmmm. Very nice Sara. Very nice. You can put your dress back on.” I Sara started putting her dress back on when she turned and noticed Leon rubbing his rather large bulge down the inside of his thigh as he watched her getting dressed.
“Now Sara. I have a very busy schedule and i cant meet with you about your you beta male problems everyday. But as my schedule permits i will text you and set up our ‘dates’. At that point you will update me on your progress. And before we finish. You will give me a sext little show like you did today. Understand Sara? Thats sort of like my payment for helping you both out. Do we have an agreement Sara?” Leon stated.
Sara nodded yes slowly as she straightened her dress never taking her eyes off his impressive semi hard cock. “Sara? Look at me. My eyes are up here sweety. Nodding wont cut it. Im going to need you to say it. “. Leon said still stroking his cock and smiling.
Sara looked into his big brown eyes. Her heart racing. Nipples rock hard poking through the thin material of the teddy and dress. Clearly visible to Leon. Her fave was flush as she swallowed hard. “Yes Leon. I understand. You will text me to set up our dates and i will follow any requests you may have. And before i leave i will give you a show as payment for your help.” She said never looking away.
“Perfect. I look forward to working with you Sara. Oh. And Sara. You don’t have to worry about me trying to take advantage of you. I would never do anything to violate you or you wedding vows without both you and little Chrissy expressly asking me. Now. If you could let yourself out. I have an appointment in five. I will be in touch.”
Leon basically dismissed Sara and watched as she picked up her things and left. He smiled to himself as he watched her round ass jiggle as she strutted out the door. Closing it behind her.
Sara could feel the crotch of her teddy was soaked from her excitement and all she did was take off her dress. She wasn’t sure where this was going or how it would turn out but she knew that little Chrissy never got her this excited.

Title: I am 33 years old and make $121,000 with an approximate 20% bonus and annual stock awards, live in Pittsburgh, PA and work as a Landman in the Oil and Gas Industry (I’m a licensed attorney) This was my Money Diary from two years ago - https://www.refinery29.com/en-us/money-diary-pittsburgh-pa-in-house-landman-income
Section One: Assets and Debt
Retirement Balance: $152,000 in my company 401K – prior to paying off my student loans in November of 2019, I was contributing up to my company’s 6% match. Now, I am contributing 15% which comes out to about $700/pay period plus employer match.
I have about $10,500 in a personal investment account that I contribute $500/month that I opened earlier this year
Equity: I sold my townhouse in 2017 and moved into an affordable apartment in order to aggressively pay down my student loan debt. I moved in my boyfriend, in his paid-off home, in March.
Savings Account Balance: In my HYSA, I have a $20,000 emergency fund and $10,000 in a short-term savings account with the goal of home improvements and/or down payment for a home
Checking Account Balance: I have $4,000 in my checking account
Credit card debt: No credit card debt – I pay my balance off every month
Car Loan: I bought a new SUV this summer that was around $38,000. The loan is currently at $3,500 between a $10,000 down payment, trade in of my old vehicle, a couple $1500 monthly payments and I recently cashed out $10,000 in stock to put towards the principal. I plan to have this paid off within the next few months.
Student Loan Debt: $0 – I graduated from law school with $85,000 in student loan debt. After three years, I had made $30,000 in payments and less than half had gone to the principal. At that point, I sold my townhouse and moved into an affordable apartment and got serious about paying it off. I was able to pay off that $70,000 in a little under two years.
Anything else that's applicable to you: I receive compensation in deferred stock awards that have a three-year vesting cycle. I currently have about $3,000 in vested stock and $100,000 in unvested. The unvested is monopoly money because: (1) If I leave my job, I would lose it; and (2) The stock is volatile, and its value at vesting is unknown. I don’t have a specific plan for that money but would potentially use it towards a down payment on a future home or renovations in our current home.
I live with my boyfriend, Will, who paid off his mortgage in eleven years shortly before I moved in. We make about the same income. He pays for property taxes, insurance, and utilities. I pay for cable, internet, meal kit deliveries, Amazon Prime and Netflix. We have an active interest in each other’s investments and are on the same page about our outlooks surrounding money.
Section Two: Income
Income Progression: I've been working in my field for 6 years; my starting salary was $85,000 with 20% bonus. This was my first job out of law school. I have had two promotions since I started but my salary increases weren’t necessarily in line with the promotions. My biggest raise was in a year that I did not receive a promotion.
Main Job Monthly Take Home:
$5,762.55
Section Three: Expenses
Rent / Mortgage / HOA fees: N/A – Will owns the house outright and he pays for all property taxes
Renters / home insurance: same
Retirement contribution: see above – approximately $700/pay period, which, with an additional portion taken out of my bonus, maxes out my 401k for the year
Savings contribution: $1000 to HYSA (was $2500 but now diverting $1500 to car payment)
Investment contribution: $500 to mutual fund
Debt payments: $1500/month to aforementioned car payment
Donations: $50/month to a local homeless shelter that really helped by Dad when he was struggling with addiction. My boyfriend and I also volunteer at Meals-on-Wheels once a week. We used to go together every week when they needed us during the beginning of quarantine, but now that things have slowed down, just one of us goes every week. We also make ten bagged lunches for the homeless through a local church twice a month and I pay for those supplies which I would estimate to be between $50 and $100 a month.
Electric: Partner
WIFI/Cable/Landline: $177
Cellphone: Paid through work
Subscriptions: $65/week for Hello Fresh or Marley Spoon food delivery (3 meals a week); $13.90 for Netflix; $10.69 for Apple Music; $13.77 for Amazon Prime; $11.96 for digital local newspaper subscription; $14.99 Peloton
Gym membership: $10/month Planet Fitness + $22/month pretax for gym near my office. I’m not currently going to the gym, but both are so low I don’t want to cancel. I especially want to support the family-owned gym by my office.
Car payment / insurance: The minimum payment on my car loan is about $400, but I pay $1500. Car insurance is $370/every six months
Was there an expectation for you to attend higher education? Did you participate in any form of higher education? If yes, how did you pay for it?
I was always a very good student and there was an expectation I would attend college. Finances were never discussed when I was looking at colleges and although my family is not extremely wealthy, they had a “follow your dreams” approach to schooling. I attended a state school as an out-of-state student and my grandparents paid for the majority of the tuition – I believe it was around $30,000 a year. My parents paid for basic room and board expenses and I worked throughout college and in the summers for spending money. I attended law school and my grandparents provided approximately $20,000 a year. I graduated with $85,000 in student loans. After three years, I had paid over $30,000 in payments, but less than half of that went to the principal and I decided to really change my view on budgets and spending and get it paid off as soon as possible. I was able to pay the remaining $70,000 off in less than two years. I am incredibly grateful for the money I received from my family, especially my grandparents, and realize how lucky I am. My grandfather was a high school principal and lived very modestly his entire life to be able to save. I hope I am making him proud!
Growing up, what kind of conversations did you have about money? Did your parent/guardian(s) educate you about finances?
I don’t believe my parents ever discussed money with me in a cogent manner. My grandparents are all very frugal and big savers, but they did not impart that knowledge on my parents. Both are extreme spenders, with my dad in particular having IRS liens and at one-point filing for bankruptcy. I’d like to think I learned from their mistakes, but I also recognize that comes from the privilege of making a comfortable living. When I first started making money, I just assumed you were supposed to spend all of it and that’s pretty much what I did until 2017. I credit Money Diaries and this sub for teaching me so much about financial literacy. You guys are the best.
What was your first job and why did you get it? I
I worked at my local pool as an attendant when I was 14 and started lifeguarding at 16. I liked having my own money and as I’ll discuss further below, I didn’t like asking my mom for money.
Did you worry about money growing up?
Constantly. My parents divorced when I was 8 and my father lost his job a few years later. My mom went from having dependable child support to nothing and her job wasn’t lucrative at the time. She was constantly stressed about money and really put a lot of that pressure on me as the oldest child. I remember just being yelled at for everything I would ask for – whether it was cheerleading shoes or lunch money. This was also during times when we were going on vacations and living in a nice home. We weren’t poor but my mom never saved or accounted for any unexpected expenses. This has really shaped my mindset about saving and not wanting to live my life stressed about money.
Do you worry about money now?
Short answer is no and I think there’s three parts to that: (1) I have been lucky to find a job that pays me well, (2) I set myself up for success by saving and paying off debt; and (3) to live with my boyfriend whose good financial decisions have taken a lot of stress off of our shoulders. On the other side, I also work in a pretty unpredictable industry, so I am cognizant that this job may not last forever and I may need to figure out another career path. But I bet on me and know that I would be an asset to many companies and industries.
At what age did you become financially responsible for yourself and do you have a financial safety net?
I would say that when I graduated from law school and moved into my own home. My family is very close, and I know that I could move in with my siblings, dad or grandparents if I needed to. I would also consider my boyfriend part of my safety net.
November 5, 2020
7:10 – My boyfriend, Will, wakes me up with some cuddling. I have been having some weird insomnia so sleeping in this late feels awesome! This morning we are volunteering at Meals-on-Wheels, so I get up, make half of a bagel thin with whipped cream cheese and “Everything But the Bagel” seasoning and grab a water bottle and a Diet Dr. Pepper to have in the car.
10:30 – We head home from Meals-on-Wheels. It was another fun morning – we really enjoy going, especially the weeks we both go. Our team of 6 volunteers makes bagged lunches and then a hot meal for 64 folks. Today, the bagged lunch had a milk, applesauce, roast beef and cheese sandwich, chips, apple, cookies, bread and butter, and a piece of pound cake. The hot meal was stuffed peppers with mashed potatoes and green beans. When we get home, I make Will a bagel thin as a pre-lunch snack and package up an apple and leftover chicken pot pie for his lunch while he catches up on emails. We made the chicken pot pie this weekend from the Salt Fat Acid Heat cookbook and it was so good and has been heating up really well. After he leaves for work, I go into my home office in the dining room and catch up on emails/phone calls before heating up a cabbage roll with ground turkey and mashed potatoes that my best friend made this weekend and gave me some leftovers. 10/10 would recommend.
12:45 – I work for the rest of the morning and then go to the NJ EZPass website because when I went to NJ in September, the EZPass I was using was no longer active and I got hit with two separate $50 fees. BOOOOOO. I’m able to get one waived, but I still have to pay $56.15. I also decide I’m a grown up and should get my own EZPass account so I sign me and Will up for one ($76, which includes two devices and $35/each in prepaid funds). I also buy a toaster because we only have a toaster oven and I burn 65% of the things I put in there. ($24.61)
1:00 – I get back to work for the afternoon. I correspond with opposing counsel, draft and revise some leasing agreements, and review leases that were taken by my field guys. The afternoon goes by quickly. I have the rest of my DDP, another large bottle of water, and a spoonful of Jeni’s Brambleberry Crisp ice cream which is the best ice cream I’ve ever had. Around three I have an apple and help my coworker put together a proposal for her promotion. She definitely deserves it!!!!!
4:30 – I finish up my workday and head upstairs for a 30-minute Beyoncé Peloton ride. It is so so fun! I take my daily bath after while watching TikToks. Afterwards, I get dressed, make our bed, and put away some laundry.
6:00 – Will gets home from work and we start on tonight’s Blue Apron – chicken caper pasta. It’s tasty but not my favorite. We watched “Eaters Guide to the World” while we ate – narrated by Maya Rudolph. It seems like a great show, and Maya’s voice is awesome. Will cleans up the kitchen while I type this out and relax.
7:00 – We listen in to a webinar for my friend’s travel agent business. It feels really pyramid schemey to me. I love that she has a side hustle, but don’t love this. Afterwards we watch The Last Man on Earth (“LME”) before going to bed around 9.
Day Two
4:00 – Welp, I’m up. Any advice on how to stay asleep? Maybe seven hours is enough sleep? It doesn’t feel like it to me. I listen to podcasts (Do No Harm and the new Dr. Death) until I get up at seven and start my work day. Will left around 5:30 after taking the trash and recycling out for the week. I have half a bagel thin and an apple for breakfast.
9:30 – I’m heading into the office soon, so I’ve been taking care of housekeeping things and making a list to ensure I do everything I need to in the office today. I’ve been going in about twice a week for two or so hours. My company is still pretty old fashioned in the sense that we use paper pay sheets and have to physically sign off on things. I don’t mind – it’s nice to get out of the house.
10:30 – I get into the office, handle some logistics, catch up with my friends and yell at my boss for not wearing a mask. He’s infuriating. After a few hours, I leave and pick up Mexican food and take it to my dad and grandma’s house for lunch ($45). My gram and I get the shrimp tacos and chips and guac and my dad gets a giant portion of beef enchiladas. After a quick lunch, I head home, stopping to pick up wine on my way ($41).
1:30 – I’m back in the home office and working the rest of the afternoon. I deal with some lease negotiations that are part of a mediation and end of year budget issues. I finish up around 4:30 and chat with my best friend on her drive home from work and then get on a quick call with my boss to discuss the mediation.
5:45 – Will is home and he snacks while we make baked chicken with pesto and mozzarella. We have it with a bag of sautéed spinach and I have leftover sweet potatoes and he has last night’s pasta. I am TIRED from waking up so early!!! We just watch LME and head to bed around nine.
Day Three
6:15 – I’m just waking up now! Yes! Will gives me a big hug before he leaves for the day. Today is technically my Friday off (we do 9/80s, so I have every other Friday off). With working from home, I haven’t really taken the Fridays off, and I have two meetings on my schedule today.
8:15 – Head down to my office, heat up some pot pie (it has veggies so does that make it okay to eat for breakfast?), and catch up on emails. I have a short call at 9 with an attorney representing landowners whose leasing agreement I would like to modify. I’m also going back and forth with our outside counsel regarding current litigation. Fridays are normally my busiest day because I really like to get to as close to inbox zero as possible to have a “fresh start” on Monday.
10:00 – I call a new-to-me hair salon to schedule an appointment and they say they can take me either after Thanksgiving or today at 10:45, so I put some makeup on and head out. The girl who does my hair looks just like Jenny Slate and it was really nice getting to know her! I get a cut and highlights and I love it! ($172 + $40 tip + $3 for parking). Also, the Hello Fresh charge for the week goes through ($77.91). It is a little higher than normal because I ordered some sandwiches for lunch to try out.
1:30 – Rush home for a conference call which goes great! For a late lunch, I heat up a piece of chicken from last night and have it with some leftover spinach and chips and guac.
2:30 – I watch the first episode of Real Housewives of Salt Lake City. Omg this season seems like it is going to be amazing. Afterwards, I head to my best friend slash neighbor’s house and we go for a 2.5 mile walk and then sit outside on her deck and catch up. It’s sad to think this may be the last time we are able to do this with the weather getting colder.
5:30 - I order Aladdin’s takeout and Will picks it up on the way home. We get a shish kebob rolled, chicken Dijon rolled, spicy cauliflower, V9 soup and hot sauce. ($35+ tip, Will pays). When he gets home, we take the leaves to the curb and buy his sister a baby shower gift ($280 for a car seat, Will pays). We watch more LME and go to bed around nine.
Day Four
7:00 – I wake up and Will has already left to take his Nana shopping. I putz around and run the dishwasher and wash the bedding. He comes home at nine and we go shopping at Whole Foods. He gets stuff to make borscht for his mom and aunt, sandwiches provisions for lunches this week, salad, and frozen food. Total is around $90, and Will pays.
11:00 – We get home and make a frozen pizza and salad for lunch and watch more LME. Around one, I do a Peloton bootcamp (Jess Sims is my best friend) and Will mows the yard for leaves. I take a bath and relax while Will preps the soup.
4:00 – We have some leftover pizza and watch the last episode of Seduced, the NXIVM documentary. Keith Raniere is such a horrible human being. At some point I buy some more silicone ice cube trays ($9.32) and I make us sandwiches with the leftover chicken/pesto/mozzarella from the other night. We head to bed early.
Day Five
7:00 – I wake up in a great mood and ready to do all the things. I drink a green juice because I’ve been eating like a literal trash panda. I load the dishwasher, clean the countertops and stove, vacuum the kitchen, and make the bed. I fold and put away a load of laundry. I do a thirty-minute Cody Rigsby intervals and upper body workout and then a 15-minute stretch video.
11:00 - I take a shower and get ready to the day I’ve been looking forward to all month – brunch at Eleven! It is a gift from my sister and brother in law for my birthday and my brother joins as well. We start with a basket of croissants, muffins, and scones with honey butter and raspberry jam – literally a meal itself. Then I get the beignets and fried chicken with Brussel sprouts Caesar salad and corn bread. I also have a ginger mule and most of Will’s cocktail. Total was around $200 plus tip for the five of us and my brother-in-law pays.
3:00 – We head back to my sister and brother-in-law’s house and watch the end of the 1:00 football games and then the Steeler game. We have some cocktails throughout the day and before we leave, they make some frozen chicken nuggets from Costco that taste just like Chic-Fila. They also bought the Taste Test of Caramels from Trader Joes – I highly recommend. Will and my sister both got 100% accuracy and I couldn’t be prouder. It was such a fun day! They recently moved back to Pittsburgh from out of state and I’m so grateful that they are close, and we can hang out regularly.
7:30 – We get home and try to watch one episode of LME and fall asleep immediately after getting into bed.
Day Six
5:45 – I wake up and lay in bed for an hour or so catching up on my phone. I head downstairs and go through my work and personal emails and finances. My 401K has increased $12,000 since I started writing this. It doesn’t make sense to me. I also see that I got $50 cash back from Buy Buy Baby, so I get a few more things from Will’s sister’s registry ($5.50 after the coupon)
9:00 – I head into the office to pick up printing (I have a small printer at home, but anything more than a couple pages, I print to the office) and get some checks requested. I grab a cup of coffee and a Pepsi for Will. Once I’m back at home, I heat up the rest of the vegetable soup from Friday and a couple pierogis that Will’s mom made. I negotiate with a landowner for an amendment and ratification, fix a couple revenue issues, pull an order from a 2018 lawsuit and ensure that we are abiding by its terms, and put a memo together for the general counsel.
1:00 – I work solidly throughout the afternoon – reviewing lease files, communicating with my field guys, conferring with my boss about some recent case law, and responding to emails. I finish around 4 and take a bath. I talk to one of my friends on her ride home from work and discuss how we feel like there’s another quarantine lock down coming. Will gets home around 5:30 and we make chicken flautas with pico for dinner.
6:30 – Will and I start brainstorming ideas for Thanksgiving dinner. It is more than likely just going to be the two of us, but we still want to make a full dinner and try out new recipes. We decide to practice a stuffing recipe this weekend to make with turkey, roasted veggies, homemade rolls and some sort of apple dessert. You know the drill – a couple episodes of LME and bed around nine.
Day Seven
4:00 – Fuck. I’m up. I stay in bed for two hours listening to podcasts and trying to fall asleep. I give up at six and watch TikToks until seven. I tell myself I have plenty of PTO, so maybe I’ll take off a couple hours this morning and take a nap. I put blackout curtains in our bedroom last night and that wasn’t helpful in staying asleep but hopefully it will allow me to take a nap.
7:30 – I head downstairs and go through my emails – there’s nothing urgent. I pick out some cookies to buy from a fundraiser at the school my brother works at ($30). I feel surprisingly good, but I think its adrenalin from all the news about PA potentially getting shutdown again on Friday.
11:30 – I eat 1.5 pierogis, a leftover flauta from last night, and an apple before heading to the grocery store. I get stuff to make lunches tomorrow night and then for us for two dinners later this week – ($54) I am starting to feel tired but make myself do a Peloton ride before an afternoon of meetings. I start a Dennis intervals and arms ride and I hate it, and after ten minutes, I check my phone and one of my bffs tells me to do Robin’s Lizzo ride. It was EXACTLY what my life needed. The trajectory of my day is completely changed, and I feel awesome. Just another reminder that I work out for my mental health first and physical health second.
1:30 – My boss decides to no call no show our weekly team meeting. 10/10 wonderful boss behavior. I have another long conference call at 2, so I eat a couple turkey lunch meat roll ups and listen in.
3:30 – Conference call over. I catch up on email and phone calls and am done at 4:30. I take a bath and talk on the phone to friend before prepping tonight’s dinner – bulgogi pork tenderloin with rice and roasted carrots.
6:00 – Dinner is truly delicious! Will and I catch up on our day, clean up the kitchen, and watch Last Man on Earth.
At the end of each day please tally up your daily expenses. Then at the end of your diary please tally up all expenses in the following categories:
Food + Drink: $247.91
Fun / Entertainment: $0
Home + Health: $33.93
Clothes + Beauty: $220.50
Transport: 132.15
Other: $0
Lastly, reflect on your diary!
This week had a couple abnormal spends with the hair cut and the EZ Pass situation. I would say that I try to keep my spending to $500/week, $2,000/month and I wasn’t too far off even with the unexpected issues. I’ll just keep things a little tighter for the next week or two. I am beyond grateful for my limited fixed monthly costs and think I’m doing a pretty good job of putting my money to good use and investing. I appreciate any and all additional advice!

After a 10-0 night on the sports betting side of windailsports.com one of our subscribers took two $100 dollar bets and turned it into almost 80 grand last night! I asked boss man if I could share the love on reddist so that anyone who wanted could take advantage of the arrival of Mike North, one of the best minds in the sports betting industry and the recent run we have been on and he said to go for it. So here you go ladies and gentlemen.
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Cash with Flash has NBA, NCAAB & NHL Predictions for tonight!!
Glad to see you and we hope that your sports betting endeavors are going well. It’s been difficult handicapping professional sporting contests but if you’ve been tailing me, listening to my show, or read my books then you have been making money.
Cash with Flash Best Bets has 2020-2021 season-long totals of 66-53-1 for NFL football, 48-21 in NCAAF, 40-29 for NCAAB, 15-9 in NHL, 53-31-1 in the NBA, and 85-45 for tennis this season.
Had you wagered $100 dollars on each pick we offered you’d be ahead of the game by about $10,000 since September 8, 2020. That’s not too shabby.
Tuesday was a terrific bounce-back day. We went 3-0 on the day and improved our Win Daily Sports record to 4-4.
Yup, just like that we erased a tough Monday night.
I employ a fixed-unit system of bankroll management. I explain this system and its nuances (along with other systems) in my books but the gist of it goes like this; I play one unit on every contest I have an edge in. No more and no less. I’m able to do this because I have a career winning percentage of 56.6 percent and winning at a 62 percent clip this season.
It’s not the sexiest way of doing things that’s for sure but it does work for me. Let’s see what we have on tap for today!
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NBA 2020-2021 Money Line Leaders
1). New York Knicks +3.7
2). Charlotte Hornets +3.6
3). Chicago Bulls +3.1
4). Utah Jazz +2.7
5). Detroit +2.5
NBA 2020-201 ATS Leaders
1). New York Knicks (13-13) +3.7
2). Charlotte Hornets (14-11-1) +3.6
3). Chicago Bulls (14-10) +3.1
4). Utah Jazz (18-7) +3.1
5). Detroit Pistons (+3)
Wager $10 on DET📷To Beat IND:$22.25Lose by less than 3:$19.09To Lose:$16.83 (13-10-1) +2.5
NBA 2020-2021 Totals Leaders
1). Brooklyn Nets (19-8 over record) +6.0
2). Denver Nuggets (18-6 over record) +5.6
3). Milwaukee Bucks (15-9-1 over record) +4.9
4). Detroit Pistons (14-10) +3.7
5). Chicago Bulls (13-11) +3.3
We have five games on the NBA schedule but Cash with Flash is only interested in a couple of these contests.
Indiana Pacers (-3)
Wager $10 on IND📷To Beat DET:$16.83Win by 3:$19.09To Lose:$22.25 vs Detroit Pistons (+3)
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Normally I would be all over the home underdog and especially so against an Indiana Pacers side on the wrong end of a four-game losing streak. Malcolm Brogdon and Domatas Sabonis have struggled mightily during this losing streak but they play a Pistons team allowing an average of 118 points per game over their past five contests. Detroit is coming off of a huge home victory over a Kevin Durant-less Brooklyn Nets side that ended a four-game losing streak of their own. The Pacers are the better offense and will take this one by four points or more. Take the Indiana Pacers with confidence tonight.
Philadelphia 76ers (-5.5)
Wager $10 on PHI📷To Beat POR:$14.70Win by 5.5:$19.10To Lose:$27.85 vs Portland Trail Blazers (+5.5)Wager $10 on POR📷To Beat PHI:$27.85Lose by less than 5.5:$19.10To Lose:$14.70 (+5.5)
Remember when the 76ers couldn’t win on the road? Those days seem to be over as Philadelphia is 7-5 and enters this matchup riding a two-game winning streak. They also have a red-hot Joel Embiid who’s averaging 32.3 points alongside 10.5 rebounds per game and the Trail Blazers don’t have anyone either living or dead who can stop him. Damian Lillard has been carrying the injury-plagued Trail Blazers but missed the Trail Blazers away victory over Philly one week ago. Ben Simmons also missed that contest and is raring to go but its looks as though Seth Curry will miss this tilt with an ankle injury. Lay the Points and take Philadelphia to cover the spread tonight.
NCAAB 2020-2021 Money Line Leaders
1). Colgate +10.2
2). Morehead State +8.3
3). Wright State +7.9
4). UC Riverside +7.2
5). Prairie View +6.8
NCAAB 2020-2021 ATS Leaders
1). Colgate (5-3) +10.2
2). Morehead State (14-5) +8.3
3). Wright State (12-7) +7.9
4). UC Riverside (8-3-1) +7.2
5). Praire View (10-1) +6.8
NCAAB 2020-2021 Totals Leaders
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1). American University (3-1 over) +13.9
2). Long Beach State (6-2 over) +11.4
3). St Francis NY (7-4 over) +10.7
4). Cal Baptist (9-3 over) +9.6
5). Southern Utah (8-3) +8.2
There are several NCAAB games tonight and Cash with Flash likes one contest very much. You must stay out ahead of injuries plus coronavirus concerns and the best website I know for this would be Newsday.
Georgia Southern vs Georgia State (138.5 Total)
A majority of these two sides’ contests have ended under the total and I suspect that this one won’t be that much different when they meet tonight. Three of their last five meetings have ended under the total and these are two fairly good defenses. Georgia State has one of the best turnover percentages in the college game but Southern is twelfth in the nation at causing turnovers. Neither side shoots the ball well from long range and both squads have pedestrian offensive rebound percentages. Take the UNDER in this one!
NHL Top Five Winning Teams
We’re not talking about how many games a team wins but how much money you would win had you wagered $100 on each of the following teams’ total games this season.
1). Toronto Maple Leafs $470
2). Carolina Hurricanes (-1.5)
Wager $10 on CAR📷To Beat DAL:$17.90Win by 1.5:$28.48To Lose:$20.89 $264
3). Tampa Bay Lightning (-1.5)Wager $10 on TAM📷To Beat FLA:$16.25Win by 1.5:$25.54To Lose:$23.82 $247
4). Boston BruinsWager $10 on BOS📷To Beat NYR:$15.44To Lose:$25.02 $246
5). Vegas Golden Knights (-1.5)Wager $10 on LAS📷To Beat ANA:$14.40Win by 1.5:$17.74To Lose:$29.15 $189
NHL Top Five Losing Teams
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1). Ottawa Senators (+1.5)
Wager $10 on OTT📷To Beat WIN:$27.60Lose by less than 1.5:$17.51To Lose:$14.85 -$765
2). Detroit Red Wings (+1.5)Wager $10 on DET📷To Beat NAS:$25.27Lose by less than 1.5:$16.44To Lose:$15.69 -$523
3). New York RangersWager $10 on NYR📷To Beat BOS:$25.02To Lose:$15.44 -$427
4). Vancouver Canucks (+1)Wager $10 on VAN📷To Beat CAL:$21.89Lose by less than 1:$23.56To Lose:$17.19 -$453
5). Nashville Predators (-1.5)Wager $10 on NAS📷To Beat DET:$15.69Win by 1.5:$16.44To Lose:$25.27 -$419
Carolina Hurricanes vs Dallas Stars (+1.5)
Wager $10 on DAL📷To Beat CAR:$20.89Lose by less than 1.5:$28.48To Lose:$17.90 (O/U 5.5 Goals)
I can see grabbing Carolina at -121 tonight but I don’t think that would be the best bet for this contest. Carolina has a terrific offense and scores an average of 3.14 goals per game and the Stars average 3.33 goals scored per game but has lit the lamp just five times over their last three matchups. James Reimer will likely tend to the twine and he’s allowed 16 goals over his past four starts and Anton Khudobin has allowed 11 goals over the past three starts including seven goals over two consecutive losses to Carolina during that same three-game span. Take the OVER in this game!!