NFL playoff odds: Opening spread for Patriots vs. Titans

patriots vs titans vegas odds

patriots vs titans vegas odds - win

How likely is every NFL stadium to host WrestleMania? An investigation

With the announcements of WrestleManias 37, 38, and 39, some users were critical of WWE selecting the same venues every year. Every WrestleMania since 23, with the exception of three in Orlando (two at the Citrus Bowl/Camping World Stadium and one at the Performance Center due to COVID-19), has been held at an NFL stadium. As something of an NFL stadium expert, I decided to examine each NFL stadium's likelihood of hosting a future WrestleMania. Please note that some stadiums are located just outside of the city limits listed, but I listed the major city most associated with it (so for instance, while AT&T Stadium is technically in Arlington, it hosts the Dallas Cowboys, so I listed Arlington.) I'm also giving WWE a significant benefit of the doubt and assuming they'd be interested in hosting a Mania outside of their usual go-tos.
Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
AT&T Stadium, Dallas, TX
Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC
Bills Stadium, Buffalo, NY
Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO
FedExField, Washington, DC (stadium located in Landover, MD)
FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland, OH
Ford Field, Detroit, MI
Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL
Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA
Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI
Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, CA
Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA
Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
Lumen Field, Seattle, WA
M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA
MetLife Stadium, New York, NY (located in East Rutherford, NJ)
Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN
NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
Soldier Field, Chicago, IL
State Farm Stadium, Phoenix, AZ
TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, FL
US Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN
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Official r/NFL Week 11 Power Rankings

Welcome to the week 11 Official NFL Power Rankings! It was an eventful weekend, all that fans (of most teams) could reasonably ask for. Whose top 15 are upside down? Is any team more PFF than substance? Happy 2 million, Discuss! 31/32 reporting
# Team Δ Record Comment
1. Steelers +1 10-0 Going into Thanksgiving after a solid win against the hopeless Jaguars, if the Steelers win vs the Ravens, they're in. That's right, if they beat Baltimore, the Steelers clinch a playoff spot by Week 11. Meanwhile, the Ravens know their back is against the wall after losing a tough one against the Titans and being outside of the cutoff line for the postseason. A loss against the Steelers takes their playoff odds down to 50-50, while a hot Browns team beating the same reeling Jaguars team brings their playoff chances to 75%. Expect the Ravens take their frustrations out on the Steelers in what will be both teams biggest test this season. The Ravens are desperate now and that makes them even more dangerous. Even more dangerous if they have the beerbug. If the game is postponed, disregard all of this.
2. Chiefs -1 9-1 The Chiefs have some soul searching to do on defense after another abysmal performance against the Raiders. Unlike the first matchup against the Raiders, the Chiefs offense was able to bail out poor performances from the defense and special teams this time thanks to the usual suspects on offense. Travis Kelce continued his otherworldly year. Tyreek Hill was as great as always. Patrick Mahomes made a game-winning drive with only 1:43 look way too easy. Even if the Chiefs defense has off days the Chiefs are always going to be competitive due to those 3 guys. They might have to lean on them, even more, when the Chiefs go to Tampa Bay next week.
3. Saints +1 8-2
4. Rams +6 7-3 Jordan Fuller is the superior 199th pick.
5. Packers -2 7-3 "MVS giveth, MVS taketh away"
6. Colts +7 7-3 The Colts drive to close the game after stopping the Packers on a late 4th and 1 was the most poorly executed drive this ranker has ever seen. It's a testament to this team's heart and talent that they still pulled out a W after that debacle. Sunday's game was one of the biggest in recent Indy football and the Colts look to surge into the back stretch of the season.
7. Seahawks +5 7-3 The Seahawks defense won the game on a Carlos Dunlap sack on a three man rush against Kyler Murray. This team is provocative.... gets the people goin. And the fans are here for it (RIP blood pressure). A long break between Thursday night and the game Monday night should mean the returns of Chris Carson, Shaquil Griffin, and Ethan Pocic. After a bit of a slump, the Seahawks next 4 opponents consist of the NFC East (minus the Cowboys) and the Jets. It's all comin' together, baby.
8. Bills -- 7-3 The Dolphins, Patriots, and Jets all lost this week, which is about as good of a bye week as the Bills can ask for. This has been a very weird season with a lot of flukey wins and losses. Despite losing to them (and getting their teeth kicked in by one), it’s hard to say the Bills are objectively worse than Arizona or Tennessee. A Hail Mary ended one, and there was a whole string of strange, confusing events leading up to the other that made it a tough game to prepare for. This isn’t to say Buffalo didn’t deserve these losses, but in such an up-and-down year around the whole league, 7-3 feels pretty damn good. Now, it’s time to make the final push for the division.
9. Buccaneers -4 7-4 He was excessively loyal to his coordinators. No matter their follies, no matter the incompetence on full display, and no matter the need for change, he insisted they continue in their duties. He refused to step in to call plays until it was too late, and by that point, the writing was already on the wall for his job. This of course references former Buccaneers Head Coach Dirk Koetter. The parallels are there in the present, and after last night's Rams game (which included a rollout from Tom Cement Shoes Brady), OC Byron Leftwich has little confidence from Bucs fans. They better wake up, because Patrick Mahomes is next.
10. Titans +4 7-3 The Titans were able to once again slow the Ravens offense enough to keep pace through the first three quarters and set up an eleven-point fourth quarter to take the game to overtime. In overtime, Derrick Henry became the first player in NFL history to score a second walk off touchdown in the same season.
11. Ravens -5 6-4 This ranker would opt to write a blurb, but Greg Roman forced him to write a message to Hollywood instead. Can the Steelers be beaten without a DL? What about with two running backs on the COVID list? Asking for a friend.
12. Cardinals -5 6-4 Leading the league in penalties (now 9 more than the next most penalized team) was bound to factor into a loss at some point. The offensive line also had their worst game of the season as Seattle's pass defense looked elite. Hopefully the teak used the extended time to work on some things and Murray's shoulder had enough time to heal. Sunday's game against the up and down Patriots will be absolutely critical.
13. Raiders -- 6-4 Bad officiating, bad defense, and scoring 30+ points and losing. Sunday night was exactly what you expect when you watch a Raiders game. The bright side for Raiders fans, they dominated KC on the road and barely scraped out a win after coming off a bye in Vegas. The Raiders can beat any team in the league, unfortunately their defense makes it so any team can beat them as well.
14. Browns +1 7-3 The Browns are just two wins away from the first winning season since 2007 and third winning season in TWENTY YEARS. The Browns will face the struggling Jaguars next week.
15. Dolphins -6 6-4 After a few weeks of glorious hope, Dolphins fans are welcomed back to the standard mood. Though the team's future still looks bright, this game was a hard reminder that the team is not yet all the way complete, and still has some glaring holes. Now the Dolphins travel to the winless Jets to see if they pull off the easy win, or if the long history of odd games in this rivalry continues.
16. Bears +2 5-5 The bye week featured the most watchable performance from the Bears' offense all season.
17. Panthers +3 4-7 The first shutout in five years was exactly what P.J. "Matty Ice" Walker and his two end zone interceptions needed. Even if this game was somehow closer than the end result, the defense really stepped up. A perfect 52 yard bomb to DJ Moore deserves specific recognition, as well as Brian Burns' overall game film.
18. 49ers +1 4-6 Bye Week- Hopefully it allows enough time to get players off the Covid list.
19. Vikings -3 4-6 Dalvin Cook leads the league in rushing touchdowns, Adam Thielen leads the league in receiving touchdowns, Justin Jefferson is on pace to break Randy Moss's rookie receiving record, Kirk Cousins ranks 6th in PFF grade... and yet none of it matters because half of the Vikings' defense is on IR.
20. Patriots -3 4-6 Pass protection and defensive secondary struggled. Run game disappeared in the second half. lost Rex. Not Good!
21. Broncos +4 4-6 Tua learned a very important lesson on Sunday. No matter how good your team is, no matter how hapless the Broncos appear to be, the power of Mile High bullshit will break you. Despite having an awful start after game after game of awful offensive play, the Broncos strung together just enough yardage to complement an amazing defensive performance to squeak out a win. Ultimately meaningless except for one point — Vic Fangio has now won as many games as Vance Joseph.
22. Chargers +1 3-7 This game had all of the hallmarks of Chargers football: inconsistent and mistake-prone offense, a defense that only lasts 30 minutes, and incompetent special teams play. However, the Chargers hung on to win the game, probably because the other team was the Jets. Keenan Allen had a career day, as his 16 receptions in a game is a franchise record. The Herbert-Allen connection continues to grow stronger and will hopefully be a focal point of the offense for years to come. The Chargers will don the navy unis again in a cross-country tilt against the Bills next week.
23. Falcons -1 3-7 Thank you @Saints for the opportunity to realize a top ten draft/pick. And thank you to the fans and the city of Atlanta for putting up with the Falcons...
24. Texans +4 3-7 Every win against the Pats feels like a gift, even when they're as garbage as they are this year. Seeing Bill Belichick scowl at his team's loss never fails to brighten the spirits of all other football fans.
25. Lions -4 4-6 The offense was actually terrible. This Lions team is a shell of the offensive strength it had last year. After being shut out by an XFL QB, Patricia's seat must be scorching. Technically still in the playoff hunt, but unless the Lions blowout the Texans on thanksgiving.... don't count on it.
26. Giants +1 3-7 If you're going to have a Covid outbreak you might as well do it on your bye week. Here's hoping everyone makes a quick recovery and limits the spread to family members. The NFC East now has an entire division of 3-win teams, which means this dumpster fire of a division is more up for grabs than it's been all year. Big Blue heads to Cincinnati to take on the Burrow-less Bengals next.
27. Washington FT +2 3-7 And here we are. Come Thanksgiving, The Washington Football Team and Dallas Cowboys will battle it out for 1st place in the NFC LEAST. The winner standing tall at checks notes 4-7... This division is a toss up and we're really looking at a 5-11 or 6-10 team hosting a wildcard playoff game.
28. Eagles -2 3-6-1 Real talk. Carson Wentz is among the worst, if not the absolute worst, starting quarterback currently in the NFL. Doug Pederson's magic from the 2017 season is dead and buried in a 50 foot deep hole in the Vet graveyard. Jason Peters is the worst overall player in the entire league. It is time for Doug to give up playcalling to someone with an iota of common sense. It is time to bench Wentz in favor of Jalen Hurts, if only to keep Wentz healthy for next season. It is time for Eagles' fans to accept the fact that being 1st in a division while 3-6-1 is not a "positive takeaway."
29. Cowboys +1 3-7 Winners? For the first time in a while, Cowboys fans feel hope.
30. Bengals -6 2-7-1 The Bengals were never going to make the playoffs in 2020, they only had one goal for a successful season, keep Joe Burrow healthy. The front office and coaching staff failed to do that. Because Mike Brown won't step down or move aside, the changes need to start with Director of Player Personnel Duke Tobin, Head Coach Zac Taylor, Offensive Coordinator Brian Callahan, and offensive line coach Jim Turner. All four have contributed towards the catastrophic failure that is the Bengals in 2020 and need to be let go. For the remainder of the season the only goal is to land a top three pick and draft Penei Sewell.
31. Jaguars -- 1-9 It was not a trap game. It was, however, Shad Khan's 100th loss since buying the Jaguars. That doesn't count for much, but... no. No it's all just terrible. Send help.
32. Jets -- 0-10 The Jets have become the first team to be eliminated from playoff contention, considerably hurting their chances at making the playoffs.
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Juicy's First Official 2021 NFL Mock Draft (3 Rounds). Trades At The Top. Pick By Pick Analysis Continued In Comments.

Trades:
Broncos trade 2021 RD1#12, 2021 RD4 #105 and 2022 RD1 for Cowboys 2021 RD1#4
Panthers trade 2021 RD1#7 and 2021 RD4 #102 and 2022 RD4 for Chargers 2021 RD1#5
Jaguars Trade 2021 Rd1#25 and 2021 RD3#66 for Raiders 2021 RD1#25
The 49ers trade 2021 RD2 #47, 2022 4th and Jimmy Garapolo for Patriots 2021 RD2 #46 and 2022 RD6
Steelers Trade 2021 RD2#64, 2021 RD4#128 and 2021 RD7#239 for Seahawks 2021 RD2#58
Football Team trades 2021 RD3 #75 and 2021 RD4 #106 for Seahawks 2021 RD2 #64
Seahawks Trade 2021 RD4 #122 and 2022 RD4 Via Jets for Packers 2021 RD3 #93
Steelers trade 2021 Rd3 #96 and Conditional 2022 Pick (2nd or 3rd) For Jets QB Sam Darnold
1. *Jets*- Trevor Lawrence-QB-Clemson
Sometimes you just don’t need to overthink it. Darnold’s failure in the Garden State wasn’t his own fault but you don’t pass on free, generational QBs like Lawrence. While you can try to get cute and make cases for Fields, Lance or Wilson, you really shouldn’t, especially with the 2021 scheme still TBD. Lawrence has the arm talent, IQ, athleticism, size and character to fit well in any scheme and any coaching staff. His only weakness I see is a reckless streak to force balls to his first option through tight windows. IMO this is simply a result of being more talented than the competition, throwing to receivers more talented than the opposition and having better scheming than the opposition. It should go away with NFL reps. Slam dunk pick. It’s time to bring sunshine to the garden state.
2. *Jaguars*- Justin Fields-QB-Ohio St
For as poor as their record is, the Jags actually have some pretty good pieces to build around. This has to be one of the youngest teams in football and with Coughlin gone, maybe they can actually start bringing in free agents and keeping stars in house. James Robinson, Laviska Shenualt, DJ Chark and a surprisingly good interior O-line lead by a potential all-pro in Brandon Linder give the offense a good baseline to build around. Give Justin Fields some good protection, an emerging young RB who can catch passes, an OC who can scheme first reads into space and a playmaking receiving group and we have a good chance to do something. For my money, Fields is the most accurate QB in the class and arguably the best at grasping route-tree concepts. Like Lawrence, he struggles to come off of his first read at times and for very similar reasons, though in his case it leads to less yolo balls and more tucking and running while second reads run free. He will need reps to come off of this, but in a quick-hitting system with playmakers, he could really hit the ground running.
3. *Bengals*- Penei Sewell-OT-Oregon
This pick is the easiest in the entire draft. Best LT I’ve personally scouted coming out to a team that needs it more than any other team, with an injured 1-1 QB who looked every bit the part in his rookie year. If it were any more obvious, Avril Lavigne would write a song about it.
4. *Broncos Via Cowboys*- Zach Wilson-QB-BYU
Either John Elway’s good will in Denver will be good enough to get him one last shot at drafting his QB, or a new regime will come in and want to draft their own QB. Either way, a new QB is coming, which is exciting given that they actually have some really good pieces on offense. Going with the idea that Elway remains, I can see Elway falling in love with either guy, likely seeing more of himself in Wilson, but Lance likely blowing him away in interviews and more importantly being slightly taller. In the end, while I have Lance rated higher, I think Elway will want to go the perceived safer route in Wilson, who is still a high ceiling player in his own right and has experience playing at high altitudes for BYU. Either way, I think Denver trading into the top 5 for a QB is one of the biggest locks of the draft. Dallas has a plethora of needs, but a healthy Dak Prescott has looked like a top 5 QB in recent years and is simply too good to walk away from. Since I have CB as their top need and Sewell off of the board, it makes sense for them to grab draft capital and still likely land a top 2-3 CB.
5. *Panthers Via Chargers*- Trey Lance-QB-NDSU
With Wilson off of the board, the Panthers pay a slight price to flip with the Chargers and ensure they get their QB. While I have Lance rated higher than Wilson for most teams, I actually slightly prefer Wilson in Carolina if they got their choice, but Lance is far too good to pass on. While Brady may not be able to run his full concept year one with Lance, Teddy’s still tentative nature has held back the offense at times and still lead to too many turnover worthy plays. They will need to slow down the game a bit for Lance if he starts from day one, but they have the pieces to do so. Lance will add a game-breaking dynamic to open up the entire field with his arm, while taking pressure off of CMC and demanding QB spies. This should really open things up for Brady to slowly unleash Lance. They have the pieces to have one of the best offenses in football (and the coaching) if this hits. With so many targets schemed into space and a heavy dose of CMC to make defenses respect the run, Lance’s potential accuracy issues will be muted and he has the ability to drive the ball in ways that help receivers functionally be more open than with a touch passer. They are also perfectly situated to start a cheap Teddy until Lance is ready with a long term minded coaching staff and ownership. Really like this fit and team.
6. *Eagles*- Caleb Farley-CB-Virginia Tech
I could see a case for the Eagles going after Chase here, but with how poor the Eagles secondary has been this year outside of an aging Darius Slay, I can’t see them passing on a talent like Farley. Jim Schwartz likes to put a ton of pressure on his secondary and Maddox/NRC simply don’t have the size or physicality to deal with what’s asked of them. IMO Farley has the highest ceiling of any CB i’ve scouted since Ramsey and similarly has the rare combo of size, speed and football IQ to match up with any receiver or QB in the game. The former QB still knows how to think like a CB and has the ball skills that made him highly recruited as a WR before he transitioned to CB. Farley checks every physical box, every mental box, every playmaking box and is said to have a home run character. If i’m searching for an issue, he can take an occasional miss-step in zone, but Schwartz is famously averse to soft zone. Farley has a bit of an injury history and is still fairly new to the position, but he has all-pro potential, a high floor and is a much needed good fit for this Eagles secondary. They can’t afford to pass on him.
7. *Chargers Via Panthers*- Samuel Cosmi-OT-Texas
The Chargers traded back, acquiring two fourths to make stomaching reaching for a tackle a bit easier. Still they have to do it. They look to have a franchise QB and play-action can only mask so much. The line is simply terrible. Per PFF, the Chargers line ranks as follows: tackles Sam Tevi and Brian Bulaga (71st and 56th out of 78 with Pipkins ranked 77th getting snaps), Trai Turner and Forrest Lamp (81st and 74th of 83) at guard and Dan Feeney (35th of 36) at center. Oof. The only borderline passable starter is a Bulaga at RT who will be 32 next year. With a QB who has wheels and big money tied to a fleet footed Ekeler, I think adding lateral mobility and athleticism to the line is a must. Cosmi isn’t a finished product technically or physically but he has the frame to add good weight while maintaining plus athleticism at the blind side and is used to playing with a mobile QB who will make life tougher on him. He rarely fully loses reps and should provide an immediate upgrade from Tevi, while having an extremely high ceiling. It’s time to change the identity of that line and lean into the play action game that is keeping the offense functional, even if I have Darrishaw rated slightly higher, I prefer this fit.
8. *Football Team*- Ja’Marr Chase-WR-LSU
People seem to be forgetting how good Ja’Marr Chase is after a year off. Justin Jefferson has been one of the best receivers in the entire NFL his rookie year, Terrace Marshall is a borderline round one guy, CEH was a first round pick and yet the most impressive skill player on that 2019 LSU team was Chase. While the Football Team clearly doesn’t have a long term solution at QB, the top 4 guys are gone and I’m not sure they have the skill players or line for a new QB to ever be successful anyways. When your receivers 2-5 are Steven Sims, Cam Sims, Dontrell Inman and Isaiah Wright, you don’t pass on a Ja’Marr Chase. Easily the worst 2-5 in the NFL. Logan Thomas isn’t a top 30 TE either. There are some pieces in DC. McLaurin is a stud and Gibson is everything I hoped he would be. The line has some good pieces, but have two weak links in Martin and Christian that need to be replaced before it can become functional. With a year left on Smith’s deal and 50 mil in cap space, the FT can afford to bring back Scherff, upgrade from Martin and take a swing on a mid round QB. Worst case scenario they go all in on a 2021 QB but actually have the pieces in place for him to hit the ground running.
9. *Lions*- DeVonta Smith-WR-Alabama
The Lions currently have Quintez Cephus and Geronimo Allison as receivers under contract in 2021...that’s it. They have approximately 1.23M in available cap space as it currently stands. I still expect them to figure out a way to bring back Kenny G, but even then, they are going to need a day one starter at WR. My mind is telling me Jaylen Waddle’s speed will get him to top 10, but I don’t love how his game meshes with Stafford nor am I fully confident he’s ready to go day one in 2021. Smith may be built like a teen who just hit a growth spurt but he’s a day one starter in the NFL and his game meshes really well with both Stafford and compliments Golladay’s. I’m really interested to see who takes in Detroit next year, but whoever it is, a potential unit of Kenny G, DeVonta Smith, an emergent TJ Hockenson and D’Andre Swift isn’t the worst place to start.
10. *Falcons*- Kwity Paye-Edge-Michigan
The Falcons need a pass rusher off of the edge, we all know that, it just comes down to which one; so having Rousseau, Paye and Parsons all still on the board is a dream scenario. While I personally have them rated Parsons, Rousseau and then Paye, it’s close enough between all three to go by fit. I honestly think the Falcons have a very strong linebacker corps and won’t get the greatest usage out of Parsons and while I love the idea of Rousseau sliding inside next to Grady Jarrett on 3rd and long, I think they need to go for day one impact and mainly the best all around true edge. For me, that makes Paye the best fit. Always a true freak athlete (which, check out Bruce Feldman’s freak list (https://theathletic.com/1938659/2020/07/21/bruce-feldmans-freaks-list-2019-college-football-top-athletic-performances-2/) but in 2020 he has made a herculean jump in production and polish. This a day one starter, with incredibly rare athletic traits, a feel good backstory and immediate impact at a gigantic need.
11. *Dolphins Via Texans*- Micah Parsons-LB-Penn St
I don’t need to go into too much detail here. The Dolphins have one of the NFL’s few good defenses thanks to a strong secondary and simply elite play calling and positioning from Flores/Boyer. That’s despite Elandon Roberts and Jerome Baker’s poor play and general talent. So what if we gave them a uniquely talented player who can play inside, outside and even play as a pure edge while fitting what the scheme wants to do perfectly? I can’t wait to find out. I think Parsons is still somewhat raw as a player and will have a few rough moments early on, simply because he’s been so so so much more naturally gifted than his competition for his entire life and hasn’t been punished for small mistakes. That said, I can’t think of a better landing spot at getting the most out of him early on and putting him in positions to succeed, nor can I think of a better player at mentoring him than Kyle Van Noy. Parsons will be an immediate upgrade and the potential for what he could grow into in Miami is tantalizing. Thanks Houston.
12. *Cowboys Via Broncos*- Patrick Surtain II-CB-Alabama
The Cowboy’s trade back pays off. I would have been between Surtain and Farley at 4th overall and while I would have leaned Farley, the gap certainly isn’t a 2022 (likely somewhat early) 1st rounder and a 4th. Pairing Surtain up with his college counterpart in Diggs should allow Diggs to go back to his natural 2 spot and provide an immediate upgrade from the triumvirate of Awuzie, Brown and Lewis. Surtain may not be the fastest straight line runner, but his hips are as smooth as they come and he makes up for any long speed deficiencies with elite mirroring and physicality. Surtain has improved as a tackler in 2020 and is probably the best day one starter at CB in this class. The Cowboys will need some safety help over the top against speed receivers, but this is an easy pick.
13. *Bears*- Christian Darrisaw-OT-Virginia Tech
The Bears would love a top 4 QB to fall into their laps at 13, but I just don’t know if they have the assets to afford a move into the top 5 right now. With Nick Foles more expensive to cut than to keep and only 2 mil in expected cap room in 2021, they will need to clear up some space. They happen to have two expensive tackles that are playing solidly but are the only non Akiem Hicks way to open up a big chunk of cap. With Ifedi a free agent expecting to see a bigger contract in 2021, the Bears have a day one need at tackle. Luckily for them, my #2 rated tackle is still on the board and is an absolute monster when he’s set and moves extremely well for his size. There are some issues getting set, but he has an extremely high ceiling and could help open up some much needed cap space for Chicago, while providing a long term solution to a two tackles who are due a lot of money, are cheap to cut and getting onto the wrong side of 30 (and coming off of a severe knee injury in Massie’s case). A receiver is an option here if they cant bring back A-Rob, as could be CB if they cut Fuller. Safety appears as a need as well, but nobody is close to a value this early. Darrishaw is the best value to need for me.
14. *Vikings*- Gregory Rousseau-Edge-Miami (FL)
I looooove this pick. A lot of people are low on Rousseau since he isn’t a finished product, but I think that’s pretty unfair. Rousseau, in his first year as a starter managed 15.5 sacks and 19.5 TFL. While his pressure rate made the sack total seem unsustainable, this is a player who will always have a high sack to pressure ratio due to his insane length, absurd speed to power and insane closing burst. Rousseau is unlikely to be a finished product in 2021, he needs to improve his move repertoire and would do well to use his length to shut down passing lanes. But he has a much higher floor than people give him credit for because he does such a good job of using his length to keep defenders outside of his body and can always detach from blocks. He physically resembles Jevon Kearse, which is something I’ve never said before and his athletic testing is going to be nutty. From a traits perspective this is a once every 5-10 years prospect. Minnesota has done a great job developing high ceiling players and have needs across the D-line. Rousseau setting an edge on run downs and sliding inside for passing downs (where he will be a nightmare from day one) will be a huge asset for the Viks. I can’t see them passing on Rousseau should he be on the board at 14 barring a sliding Trey Lance.
15. *Patriots*- Jaylen Waddle-WR-Alabama
It baffles me that a great defensive mind like BB has allowed himself to have such a slow receiver group, but I can’t imagine him just allowing it to remain as is. The Pats have holes along the D-line and would love a franchise QB, but have played themselves out of contention for the clear round one talents. While I have to imagine Kyle Pitts would be extremely enticing here, he doesn’t offer the ability to play in-line/move nor would he be functional slid in at FB. Without the ability to disguise playcalls, I see Waddle as the pick here to add some much needed electricity and field stretching ability despite having Pitts rated slightly higher. Jakobi Meyers has emerged as a solid receiver for the Pats and the ghost of Julian Edelman remains. With Waddle demanding defensive attention, perhaps he can open up some free space for N’Keal Harry to finally realize some of the yac ability that got him drafted so highly. Edge has to be tempting, but with Rousseau and Paye both off of the board the gap between what Waddle brings to the table vs a second round receiver and a Basham type vs who will be there at 46 leans heavily in Waddle’s favor. Assuming he’s fully healthy at the combine, I think this is Waddle’s floor.
16. *49ers*- Jaycee Horn-CB-South Carolina
The 49ers would love to see a top 4 QB fall to 16 and have to be somewhat interested in Trask and Jones as scheme fits, but they also currently have literally zero cornerbacks under contract for 2021, nor are they particularly flush with cap space nor do they have a third round pick. Jaycee Horn is not only my clear cut CB3 (maaaybe can see a case for Stokes) but he’s also a great fit for what Saleh wants to do should he remain in town. This is one of the easier picks in the first for me. Good fit, arguably best player available and absolutely massive,gaping, day one need. Wyatt Davis is a strong 1B for me though.
17. *Jaguars Via Raiders*- Kyle Pitts-TE-Florida
The Jags have a ton of picks early this year, a coordinator who excels at using athletic receiving TE, a rookie QB who they will be heavily invested in succeeding, a clear need at TE and a likely willing trade partner in Las Vegas. Trading up to grab Pitts is a no-brainer for me. He’s a top 10 talent in the class who could legitimately compete for WR1 in the class should he be listed that way. Is he a great blocker? No. But he’s literally breaking records at catching contested balls, runs the crispest routes i’ve ever seen from a TE and is going to be a prime Jimmy Graham level end-zone threat who can win at every point on the field. Who matches up with this guy? Not a CB, not an LB, maaaaaybe Isaiah Simmons on his best day or a Derwin James? Factor in Jay Gruden knowing exactly how to use this kind of talent and how ridiculously accurate Justin Fields is and you have to make this trade. A Justin Fields offense with this receiving group and Gruden calling plays gets me excited. Just need a tackle and a defense and we may just have something here. Jason Mendoza would be ecstatic.
18. *Ravens*-Wyatt Davis-IOL-Ohio St
The Ravens are reeeeally missing Marshall Yanda and Davis is easily the top IOL in this class for me. I think the Ravens are trying to move away from their 2019 offensive strategy since the don’t have the pieces, but the answer is actually to rebuild around what actually worked. That has to start in the trenches. Wyatt Davis embodies Ravens football. He is a genuine people mover, but he doesn’t sacrifice speed or mobility to achieve that power. He’s pure controlled aggression, and if that’s not a Harbaugh player, I don’t know Harbaugh. If Davis played any other position, he wouldn’t be on the board at 18. Plug and play week one starter who can help get the Ravens back to the 2019 glory. If Pitts is off of the board, this has to be the pick.
19. *Giants*- Joseph Ossai-Edge-Texas
The Giants situation isn’t as bad as I thought at first glance. They haven’t had the best offensive line pay, but with Nate Solder set to return in ‘21, Andrew Thomas starting to look closer to a top 10 pick and Matt Peart as an interesting developmental piece, it felt early to reach on a tackle and I don’t love any interior lineman enough to pull the trigger here. Receiver is a glaring need, but I think there will still be impact starters to get in round two and money to spend in FA as needed. I don’t hate Daniel Jones from my looks and think if the line and skill positions improve around him, he still has a chance to develop into a second contract sort of guy. He deserves his 40 start sample size. With Saquon set to return, that leaves edge as the most glaring need. Leonard Williams and Dalvin Tomlinson are both free agents (though should imo be brought back) and Kyle Fackrell doesn’t deserve another season as a starter. In Patrick Graham’s multiple 3-4 front, there happen to be two exciting players who fit the rush LB mold extremely well and fit value wise. Azeez Ojulari and Jospeh Ossai. I have Ossai rated slightly higher on my board and love his fit in this defense as a better early down linebacker with a higher athletic ceiling in coverage and better length to entice Gettleman while avoiding combo blocks. The dude is no slouch as a pass rusher either. I love the player and love the fit in a defense that might just emerge in ‘21 if things go right.
20. *Cardinals*- Eric Stokes-CB-Georgia
The Cardinals 2021 will have Patrick Peterson, Johnathan Joseph and Dre Kirkpatrick all hitting free agency next year, leaving just slot corner Byron Murphy and a soon to be 33 year old Robert Alford coming off a broken leg to end 2019, torn pec that cost him all of 2020 who can be cut to clear 7.5M of cap space. Corner jumps out as a need both long term and potentially from day one. Few players in this class have impressed me as much as Stokes has. Stokes has always been a technically sound player who shines bright outside in press, with loose hips and long arms to obscure passing lanes. But in 2020, he’s taken that next step into a playmaker. Despite teams tending to avoid throwing at him, he’s flashed greatly improved ball skills and even housed two of the picks he has. I think this is a true all around outside corner who can fit in any scheme and do whatever is asked of him. I don’t exactly see a pro bowl ceiling here, but I think Stokes might be the safest CB in this entire class and it wouldn’t shock me if he had the best rookie year of this solid corner class. People tend to underrate a good, polished CB2 chasing upside that doesn’t always fully develop. Draft good football players.
21. *Buccaneers*- Azeez Ojulari-Edge-Georgia
In a down IDL class, I’m tempted to reach for Barmore here and with Donovan Smith able to be cut to clear 14.25M in 2021, a polished tackle like Eichenberg is somewhat enticing. But with both Lavonte David and Shaq Barrett set to be expensive free agents next year, I think a rush LB/edge hybrid is the biggest need and it just so happens Ojulari is still on the board. When I watch Ojulari I pretty much see Shaq Barrett. A smaller, still long bursty/bendy player who can rush the passer at an elite rate, but will struggle setting an edge. Barrett is a good player, but he’s going to demand a contract that will pay him more than he’s worth and take him into the wrong side of 30. Ojulari can replace something very close to Barrett on rushing downs while a cheap Anthony Nelson is already an elite edge setter on run downs. Lavonte David is a much harder player to replace IMO and they should give him the big contract. Between Nelson and Ojulari, I think they can replace Barrett for 20M less a year and honestly, the pairing has a higher ceiling if everything comes together. It will also help the Bucc’s line get younger, which is much needed for future outlook. I can’t think of a better coach than Todd Bowles to max out a guy like Ojulari. Love this fit.
22. *Dolphins*- Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah-LB-Notre Dame
After addressing linebacker with pick number 11, the Dolphins double down and draft another at pick 22. If you’re going to start two monster rush LB like Kyle Van Noy and Micah Parsons, it sure as hell won’t hurt to have an absolute speed freak to fly around and neutralize both TE and speed backs. The closest thing I’ve seen to Owusu-Koramoah is basically the 2020 Seahawks version of Jamal Adams (minus the injury) undersized for an LB but incredibly fast, incredibly good at deciphering plays and a surprisingly good blitzer. The dude finishes tackles against future sunday morning players too. As mentioned earlier, Elandon Roberts and Jerome Baker ain’t it, especially in a mainly odd front defense. JOK offers a truly unique skill set that not only compliments the pieces already there well, but will be maximized by a coach like Flores. The Dolphins have needs on the O-line, receiver and RB, but you won’t find another JOK in the second round, where they have two picks. Perhaps they can target Owusu-Koramaoh’s son, Travis Etienne with one of those picks.
23. *Colts*- Jaelan Phillips-Edge-Miami (FL)
The Colts have needs at WR,CB and will likely do their due diligence on the remaining QBs. However, the Colts top 3 snap getters on the edge (Houston, Muhammad and Autry) are all free agents, only Houston has been performing well and he’s already 32. Even if he returns, edge will be a need. While Phillips won’t be the top edge available on every team's board here due to a very small sample size and a long injury history, I have to imagine Ballard will be head over heals for this player. Ballard has shown in the past he wants to target athletes with length and Phillips has both in spades. The former #1 overall recruit has insane length, insane burst, elite bend,elite speed to power and knows how to use all four to be first to contact and shed tackles like snake skin. Phillips measurables and 2020 tape are clear cut first round grades and had he had three healthy years, he might be the top edge in the class. The dude even wins in coverage at 6’5 265. The question is, do you trust him to stay healthy. He’s the type of player that will be top 15 on 8 teams boards, mid day two on 10 teams boards and completely off of 14 teams boards. I think Ballard is going to fall in the first group of GMs and he will rush to the podium to get Phillips in the building.
24. *Browns*- Zaven Collins-LB-Tulsa
The Browns have clear needs at edge and linebacker. If Owusu-Koramoah were on the board, he’d be the pick and Dylan Moses has to make them think. But I think they instead get them somebody who can do both. Andrew Berry has shown a strong correlation of draft picks to PFF grades and guess who PFF’s top graded LB in all of college football is? Zaven Collins. More than just questionably important player grades at Tulsa, Zaven Collins has the unteachable traits you can’t coach and scouting teams will love. 6’4 260 pound men shouldn’t be able to move like this. Collins is nimble and agile and is going to blow up the combine. I’d bet money on that. He uses this blend of size and agility to simple avoid blocks at Tulsa but has the size and length to easily disengage at any level. He is borderline elite in coverage and has bullied American conference passers into 2 pass deflections and 4 picks (which he’s returned for 152 yards and 2 TDs) in just 6 2020 games. Collins can rush the passer as well and has legit edge size. Collins currently plays more fast (which he is) than powerful (which he also is). I’d like to see him learn to use his size to initiate contact and bully people at the point of contact because he absolutely can, but I guess why do it when you can just avoid them completely. The game speeds up from the American conference to the AFC North, but I think Collins is a day one LB, special teams force and has potential to develop into a very special player. Watching him play, he reminds me of a cross between KJ Wright and Jamie Collins, but bigger. Fun Player and easy fit.
25. *Raiders Via Jaguars*- Christian Barmore-IDL-Alabama
After trading back and acquiring an extra top 70 pick, the Raiders select the player they wanted all along. The Raiders need a more consistent pass rush. Clelin Ferell has taken a huge step forward in 2020, but he will always be a stop the run player more than a sack artist (as is Nassib), while I’m not ready to give up on Maxx Crosby, he hasn’t been the same player he was in 2019 (or close to it). Maurice Hurst has been their only good pass rusher for my money, but he will need help inside. Johnathan Hankins is a free agent, soon to be on the wrong side of 30. Vickers and Collins certainly aren’t the answer. In a down IDL class, Barmore is the only player I can see ging round one and is easily my top IDL in the class. Is he a polished player and tactician? Nope. NFL double teams will likely eat him if he can’t add more moves or play with better leverage. That said, if you try to double him, Hurst is gonna murder your quarterback. Barmore has rare length, bend and power for an interior player. He already wins against SEC lineman and can play all across the line despite being 310 pounds. When he wins, he wins quickly and is an immediate disruptive force up the middle. Put him outside in short yardage situations and back inside on clear passing downs and he will immediately be an upgrade for the black and silver. He won’t be a 3-down guy year one, but that doesn’t mean he won’t make an impact. Long term, the sky is the limit. This is the only IDL in this class I can envision making a pro bowl. He also just so happens to come from the winning culture that Gruden?Mayock love. It just makes too much sense not to happen.
26. *Jets Via Seattle*- Carlos Basham-Edge-Wake Forest
It’s still TBD who will be the Jets DC in 2021, but I think they have personnel best suited for a true multiple front but could certainly use a genuinely polished power edge suited to play both 3-4 and 4-3 edge. Basham is that guy and while Joe Douglas has a love for quick twitch athletes off of the edge, I think Boogie Basham would make too much sense to pass up on here. Basham (who’s cousin Tarrell is a current Jet likely to be brought back for 2021) is a relentless load to handle on the perimeter who has the kind of day one polish this team needs. Basham has a fantastic grasp on how to clog gaps on run downs, is a sure tackler with his massive wingspan, sheds blocks with a very impressive and polished array of moves, never seems to be out of position, doesn’t over pursue and get out of position and man knows how to use his long-limbed frame to create chaos. Across his last 19 games, he has forced 7 fumbles and tipped 4 passes despite being double and triple teamed week in, week out. Basham isn’t a poor athlete by any means, but I would say he’s more of a day two bend/burst combo than typical day one. That said, he has day one starter polish at 285, makes the players around him better and creates turnovers. This isn’t your 10 sack a year guy, but it’s your 6-8 sack a year, consistent 3 down/scheme versatile edge who makes the players around him better and brings much needed leadership skills.
27. *Titans*- Dylan Moses-LB-Alabama
I expect this to be one of my most controversial picks in this mock. With Clowney a free agent again, edge is a glaring need, but unless you want to reach big time for an edge there isn’t anybody left. With only 10M of cap space currently in 2021, Corey davis has likely priced himself out of town with a boom season. WR is a need but one that can be addressed later. Daquan Jones will need to be replaced at DT. But with Jayon Brown likely gone in 2021, I have to think the former LB and the former Patriot in Mike Vrabel is going to fall in love with Dylan Moses the player; as well as Dylan Moses the person. Moses is a freak athlete with a freak work ethic who clearly just loves the game of football. The movement skills, power and tackling ability are all special. That said, he’s had a somewhat down year. He has good instincts, but you can visually see him second guess himself and overthink plays. RPO’s, sudden moves and good routes have eaten him up in 2020. Who better to teach a special ball of clay how to turn his brain off than Vrabel? Moses will be a day one starter, immediate locker room leader and running back neutralizer in day one for the Titans. There will be some rough moments early on, but this is the kind of player Vrabel loves and the ceiling is really high for this pairing. A reach for Jason Oweh or Jay Tufele feel possible here as well, as could a Bateman or Marshall pick.
28. *Bills*- Shaun Wade-CB-Ohio St
Bills could use an edge if they can’t bring back Murphy, would have to take a long look at Moses if he were on the board and could really use a Pat Freiermuth...but if the draft falls like this I expect them to run to the podium. Josh Norman, Levi Wallace and Daryl Worley are all free agents in 2021 and Taron Johnson isn’t particularly good. With just 4.8M in 2021, this likely means the Bills will need a minimum of one cheap starting CB and likely both a slot and outside guy. Wade can fill both roles and is simply too talented to remain on the board here. Easy pick to make.
29. *Packers*- Rashod Bateman-WR-Minnesota
Do the Packers seemingly ever draft WR round one? No. Should they? Yep. Do they currently have the cap space to bring back Allan Lazard? Lol no. They have -18M in cap space next year. It’s worth noting that this means they are extremely unlikely to be able to resign Aaron Jones, which explains the weird AJ Dillon reach and opens up RB as a possibility. That makes me tempted to grab Kadarius Toney as a Kamara role hybrid, but that doesn’t seem like a Packers move. Terrace Marshall feels like a Packers pick, but he doesn’t block as well as Bateman and won’t be quite as good day one. I think Gutekunst will fall in love with Bateman’s boundary receiving skills, Rodgers will lobby hard for a receiver that wins with a skillset similar to Davante Adams and LaFleur will fall in love with Bateman’s alpha run-blocking game. Toss in the fact that Bateman in Green Bay will rip the heart out of Vikings fans and it’s an all around win. Linebacker is an absolutely glaring need, but all the good ones are gone and the Packers seem to hate drafting them even more than hate drafting receivers. Love this fit and pick.
30. *Chiefs*- Rashawn Slater-OT-Northwestern
The Chiefs have had one hell of a run, but 2021 will be the beginning of having to pay the piper. Even without resigning Sammy Watkins, Charvarius Ward, Breeland, Nieman, Wilson, osemele, Rieters, Remmers, Wylie, Robinson, Lev Bell, Sorenson,kpassagnon and Pennell among players who saw heavy snaps in 2020; they will be -15M in 2021 cap space. And that’s BEFORE the roster gets expensive in 2022. This means, at minimum two of the Honey Badger, Mitchell Schwartz and Eric Fisher will be cap casualties. Basically the entire o-line and secondary will be needs, as well as 1-2 WR. Rashawn Slater of “the only player not to be sucked into the void by Chase Young in 2019” fame can play 4 of the line slots, moves incredibly well for a man his size, can play in cold weather and is apparently loved by “NFL types”. This feels like a pick the Chiefs have to make.
31. *Saints*- Tyson Campbell-CB-Georgia
If you thought the Chiefs cap situation was bad….the Saints currently have -95M of cap space in 2021. -95M. Jared Cook, Alex Anzalone, Sheldon Rankins, Marcus Williams and Trey Hendrickson are impact free agents who won’t be able to be resigned. Making LB, FS, Edge and IDL big needs. Ryan Ramczyk, Marshon Lattimore, Malcolm Brown and Kwon Alexander almost 100% have to be cut. It’s a bad spot to be in. Tackle, QB, LB, DT and CB all stand out as the biggest needs. With two QB’s fully guaranteed over 33M in dead cap in 2021, reaching for a QB round one doesn’t seem likely. Jaylen Mayfield or a Liam Eichenberg seem possible, as could a Jay Tufele but there will be more potential day one starters there round two than CB. Tyson Campbell has injury concerns and has had a pretty poor 2020, but he looks built in a lab to be a CB1. I think this is the replacement for a Lattimore that the Saints simply can’t afford next year. It’s a very wide range of possible outcome player, but it’s a risk they have to take.
32. *Steelers*- Jalen Mayfield-OT-Michigan
The Steelers are yet another team in 2021 cap hell. Sitting pretty at -20M in 2021, the Steelers will have Bud Dupree, Juju, James Conner, Matt Feiler, Cam Sutton, Mike Hilton, Robert Spillane and Tyson Alualu as free agent starters. Edge, OT, CB and RB all jump out as big needs even before cap casualties and the QB of the future still isn’t in the building. In particular, tackle, edge and RB jump out as needs. Jalen Mayfield is a lab built tackle with great length, power and agility wrapped up in a prototypical frame. He is not yet a finished product, who struggles against speed to power and gets over his toes at times. But he has the traits you can’t teach and should thrive in a power concept. Year one will be up and down and in a perfect world, he’d have a year or two to season. Maybe Eichenberg will be a better fit. But he just screams Steelers power football when he gets his lower half right. I can’t see Mike Tomlin go for a RB with the ball security issues Etienne has and while Harris will be tempting, the needs up front are just too much to pass up on a potential starter.
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Biggest Over and Underperformers of the 2020 NFL Season

Overperformer: Miami Dolphins (O/U 6 wins, actual 10-5)

The Dolphins are the story of the season, having essentially put a rebuild in motion in record time. Miami, which was projected to go winless just last season, finished its 2019 campaign strong by denying New England a first round bye, took a quarterback in Tua, then handed him the reins in Week 8. Flores's no name defense is one of the top units in the league, with Xavien Howard leading the league in interceptions, and they control their own playoff destiny -- Win at Buffalo and they're in. It's a lot earlier than anyone expected them to be in contention, even if they have the lowest ceiling of the AFC's five ten-win teams entering Week 17.

Underperformer: Dallas Cowboys (O/U 9.5 wins, actual 6-9)

You can't totally blame Dallas for their woes given Dak Prescott's season-ending injury. The team has taken its sweet time finding its groove under Andy Dalton, looking totally lost without Dak putting up record numbers on offense in the first several weeks. Mike McCarthy has also made some puzzling decisions, such as the fake punt against Washington where a receiver ran twenty yards behind the line of scrimmage on a 4th and long deep within their own territory. Despite all that, they still have a chance to win a historically terrible NFC East with a win vs the Giants and a Philadelphia win against a quarterback-challenged Washington Football Team.

Overperformer: Justin Herbert (Chargers O/U 7.5 wins, actual 6-9)

Don't get me wrong. The Chargers' season is terrible and Anthony Lynn deserves to be fired. But Herbert was been the biggest surprise of the 2020 NFL draft, being third off the board, and he is the reason this team has six wins. He was outplaying first overall pick Joe Burrow even before the latter's season-ending injury, passing Andrew Luck's total touchdown record, and looks damn comfortable doing it. He was thrown right into the fire, without first team reps in Week 2, and took the defending champion Chiefs to overtime. Outside of a 45-0 dismantling by the Patriots on special teams, Herbert and his Chargers have only lost one game by more than 1 score. Denver and Las Vegas better watch out - there are two incredible signal callers in the AFC West now.

Underperformer: New England Patriots (O/U 9.5 wins, actual 6-9)

New England lost its star quarterback of twenty years this season and it looked like its offense regressed by forty. Former MVP Cam Newton has twice as many picks as he does passing touchdowns and he only has ten interceptions. It's not unusual to tune in to a Patriots game and see a statline of less than 75 yards passing. It's a testament that Bill Belichick has dragged this roster to a 6-9 record, but the Patriots' reign of terror in the AFC East - 19 consecutive winning seasons, 11 consecutive division titles, 8 consecutive AFC championship appearances - is over, and a 38-9 pantsing by Josh Allen and crew on Monday confirmed it.

Overperformer: The Texans' draft picks (Houston O/U 8 wins, actual 4-11)

The Dolphins are in playoff contention and may walk into the off-season with the third overall pick in the NFL draft. How? Bill O'Brien, that's how. The former Texan dictator sent Miami two first round picks for the rights to sign Laremy Tunsil to a back-breaking deal, before he was fired after starting 0-4. Houston is 4-11, worse than all of the NFC East, JJ Watt is ripping into his teammates for not playing hard enough, and unlike every other team, their fans have no high draft picks for consolation. Thanks BoB.

Underperformer: Drew Lock (Denver O/U 7.5 wins, actual 5-10)

Lock had much hype going into the off-season by going 4-1 as a starter on a team that finished 7-9 last year, but he hasn't proven that he is the QB1 Elway is looking for. Yes, Denver had that terrible game where a practice squad WR started at QB, and Brett Rypien did come in relief of Lock early in the season, but in a division where Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert are some of the league's best signal callers, and Derek Carr is a plenty serviceable quarterback, there isn't much hope this Denver offense can come anywhere close to the heights it reached with Manning under center.

Overperformer: Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay O/U 9 wins, actual 12-3)

Aaron Rodgers is back in MVP form and the Packers are looking like Super Bowl favorites. Rodgers rediscovered the fun in football during the off-season, one in which his front office traded up to select his potential replacement. He has 44 touchdowns to just 5 picks, and Green Bay looks to be in position to make sure the road to the Super Bowl in the NFC will run through snowy Lambeau Field. And why is that so important? In a crucial test of their defense against Tennessee, who have a snowplow named Derrick Henry at running back, the Packers dismantled the Titans at home, holding the league's previously top ranked offense to 14 points, all while Rodgers locked up his case for league MVP by throwing for four touchdowns.

Underperformer: Bruce Arians (Tampa O/U 9.5 wins, actual 10-5)

Even if the Bucs lose to the Falcons this week, Bruce Arians and Tom Brady will still surpass their betting odds and return this franchise to the postseason for the first time since 2007. But Arians and Brady have constantly squabbled over the course of the season, and it's clear Arians is no Belichick. The Tampa OL cannot give the 43 year old Brady the time he needs to execute all the dropbacks in Arians's vertical scheme, and it's limited this Buccaneers offense against blitz heavy teams like the Saints and Giants. When it's working, it's beautiful, like this week's 47-7 spanking of the Lions, but Arians needs to adjust his game plan against better teams, as proven in back to back losses against the Rams and Chiefs.

Overperformer: Kyle Shanahan (SF O/U 10.5, actual 6-9)

The Niners are out of the playoffs following a Super Bowl run. How is Shanahan overperforming? He has his squad competing despite a historical bout of injury luck, losing QB Jimmy Garoppolo, D Linemen Nick Bosa and Solomon Thomas to season ending injuries, and RB Raheem Mostert and TE George Kittle were out significant playing time throughout the season. On top of that, COVID regulations made the Niners homeless, sending them to Arizona to close the regular season. But the Niners are competitive week in and week out, having embarrassed Kyler Murray and the Cardinals at their own home despite Robbie Gould missing three field goals.

Underperformer: Jared Goff (Rams O/U 8.5 wins, actual 9-6)

The Rams' running game is having a rebound year after cutting Todd Gurley, with breakout stars Cam Akers and Darrell Henderson. Sean McVay's new D coordinator has the Rams defense rolling as a top 10 unit. But Jared Goff has now lost two straight, leads the league in turnovers since the 2019 season, and they would probably be out of the playoffs if they hadn't been scheduled to play the NFC East this year and swept them. Goff looked especially poor in a 23-20 loss to the previously winless Jets, and actual human beings are now debating whether John Wolford, a man without any NFL starts to his name and is the backup on the depth chart for a reason, might be the better quarterback anyway after Goff broke his thumb in a demoralizing loss to the Seahawks that threatens to knock them out of the postseason entirely.

Overperformer: Josh Allen (Buffalo O/U 9 wins, actual 12-3)

The Bills are division champions for the first time in 25 years, and Allen has emerged as a dark horse MVP candidate in his third year. He has legitimately matured as a signal caller, having been drafted with all the talent in the world locked behind some raw mechanics. Credit to the Buffalo staff, who have managed to perform the rare feat of fixing a quarterback's accuracy longer after most deemed feasible, and have surrounded him with the weapons he needs to succeed. Stefon Diggs was a plug-and-play fit into OC Brian Daboll's offense, while Cole Beasley is quietly having a monster year. If they can give him a true running game, this Buffalo team will be an AFC playoff contender for years to come.

Underperformer: Adam Gase (Jets O/U 6.5 wins, actual 2-13)

Adam Gase has been bailed out from being remembered as part of an exclusive group of coaches who led a winless campaign, but he remains a terrible head coach who no team should ever want. The Jets squad he fielded had Sam Darnold regressing in his third year, and he steadfastly refused to make adjustments to make his team's life easier. And he had the audacity to make his fans suffer thirteen straight losses without even giving them the number one overall pick, which would have gifted them one of the most talented quarterbacks to ever come out of college.

Overperformer: Cleveland Browns (O/U 8.5 wins, actual 10-5)

While the Browns have technically not clinched a playoff berth yet in a historically deep AFC wild card scramble, Kevin Stefanski has his Browns rolling and playing spectacular ball, including in a game-of-the-year candidate 47-42 loss at Baltimore, and they are in control of their own playoff destiny. Their loss to the Jets last week was demoralizing, but Baker Mayfield also had no receivers after they were ruled out because of contract tracing protocols. This weekend, the Browns are in a win-and-in scenario against a Steelers team with nothing to play for, so barring another COVID-related debacle or a very Browns-esque collapse, they are playoff-bound for the first time since 2002.

Underperformer: Nick Foles (Chicago O/U 8 wins, actual 8-7)

Chicago remains in control of their playoff destiny with a win-and-in scenario at Soldier Field this weekend, but it's tough to argue Nick Foles hasn't underperformed this season. He was brought in to light a fire under Trubisky's bum, which, while it has certainly happened the last few weeks and has brought rumors of a contract extension for the latter, might also have been come from Mitch playing against some terrible defenses. More concerningly for Foles, he was named starter and led the Bears to the cusp of playoff elimination after losing six straight amidst a 5-1 start, playing such poor ball that head coach Matt Nagy surrendered playcalling duties to his offensive coordinator. He twice threw for no touchdowns in a six-week span before he lost his job to Trubisky after an injury.
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Colts Playoff Breakdown: Standings, Odds, and Scenarios

There are still 3 meaningful games to be played this week, but I didn't feel like waiting to make this post. This post is fully updated through Week 13.

Contents:

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AFC Standings

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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Current Tiebreakers

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This Week's Playoff Probability

Current
Beat Las Vegas
Lose to Las Vegas
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Who to Root For

Tennessee Loses to Jacksonville
Miami Loses to Kansas City
Baltimore Loses to Cleveland
These are the only games this week that positively affect the Colts' playoff odds by more than 1%.
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How Colts Results Affect Playoff Odds

4-0

Clinch Playoffs

3-1

Lose to Las Vegas:
Lose to Pittsburgh or Jacksonville:
Lose to Houston:

2-2

Beat Las Vegas:
Beat Houston and Jacksonville:
Beat Houston and Pittsburgh:

1-3

Beat Las Vegas
Beat Houston or Jacksonville:
Beat Pittsburgh:

0-4

Eliminated
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Paths to an AFC South Title: Titans vs Colts

If 1 team has a better record than the other in the last 4 games, that team wins the division.

Each Team Goes 4-0

Each Team Goes 3-1

Each Team Goes 2-2

*There is still a small chance, less than 1%, that the Colts win strength of victory.
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Paths to a Wild-Card Spot

4-0

Note: The Colts control their own destiny for the playoffs, but not for the division or for a seed higher than 7.

3-1 and Beat Las Vegas

1 of these things must happen:

3-1 and Lose to Las Vegas

2 of these things must happen:

2-2 and Beat Las Vegas

2 of these things must happen:

2-2 and Lose to Las Vegas

3 of these things must happen:

1-3 and Beat Las Vegas

3 of these things must happen:

1-3 and Lose to Las Vegas

All of these must happen:
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Tiebreaker Explanation (Every Possible Colts 2-Way Tie)

Tennessee (Divisional Tiebreak)
Pittsburgh
Kansas City
Buffalo
Cleveland
Miami
Las Vegas
Baltimore
New England
Denver
Houston
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NFL - Alternative Loser Names

Yesterday my team had a bad day. Whenever they don't play well, we call them the Seachickens. As part if our healing, my family had some fun listing alternative loser names for all 32 teams.
Original - Loser:
Arizona Cardinals - Arizona Pigeons Atlanta Falcons - Atlanta Duckies Baltimore Ravens - Baltimore Crows Buffalo Bills - Buffalo Sauce Carolina Panthers - Caroilna Kittens Chicago Bears - Chicago Beards Cincinnati Bengals - Cincinnati Gingers Cleveland Browns - Cleveland Tan Dallas Cowboys - Dallas Jockies Denver Broncos - Denver Ponies Detroit Lions - Detroit Liars Green Bay Packers - Green Bay Cheez-its Houston Texans - Houston Whitney's Indianapolis Colts - Indianapolis Foals Jacksonville Jaguars - Jacsonville Calicos Kansas City Chiefs - Kansas City Chefs Las Vegas Raiders - Las Vegas Villagers Los Angeles Chargers - Los Angeles Static Los Angeles Rams - Los Angeles Sheep Miami Dolphins - Miami Fish Minnesota Vikings - Minnesota Looters New England Patriots - New England Patties New Orleans Saints - New Orleans Taints New York Giants - New York Smurfs New York Jets - New York Kites Philadelphia Eagles - Philadelphia Cheez Whiz Pittsburgh Steelers - Pittsburgh Stealers San Francisco 49ers - San Fransisco Onsies Seattle Seahawks - Seattle Seachickens Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Tampa Bay Buckaroos Tennessee Titans - Tennessee Minions Washington Football Team - Washington Georges
What alternative names do you have for your team?
What new rivalries would you like. Personally, I'm looking forward to these primetime matchups:
The Georges vs The Whitneys The Cheez-Its vs The Cheez Whiz The Looters vs The Villagers The Taints vs The Beards The Jockies vs The Ponies The Kittens vs The Foals The Gingers vs The Tan The Chefs vs The Sauce
And the logos and Moscots!! Anybody up for designing a Seachicken? We have also have a place in AZ, damn flying rats!
If your team is still in it, may the odds be in your favor. If you're out, I find a healthy distraction helps.
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Week 15 Preview: Playoff Probability, Scenarios, and Rooting Guide

Contents

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AFC Standings

1: Kansas City Chiefs (12-1) - CLINCHED AFC WEST
2: Pittsburgh Steelers (11-2) - CLINCHED PLAYOFFS
3: Buffalo Bills (10-3)
4: Tennessee Titans (9-4)
Wins tiebreaker over Indianapolis by division record.
5: Cleveland Browns (9-4)
Wins tiebreaker over Indianapolis by head-to-head record.
6: Indianapolis Colts (9-4)
7: Miami Dolphins (8-5)
Wins tiebreaker over Baltimore by conference record.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
8: Baltimore Ravens (8-5) - CANNOT WIN DIVISION
9: Las Vegas Raiders (7-6) - CANNOT WIN DIVISION
10: New England Patriots (6-7) - CANNOT WIN DIVISION
11: Denver Broncos (5-8) - CANNOT WIN DIVISION
12: Houston Texans (4-9) - OUT
Wins tiebreaker over Los Angeles by strength of victory.
13: Los Angeles Chargers (4-9) - OUT
14: Cincinnati Bengals (2-10-1) - OUT
15: Jacksonville Jaguars (1-12) - OUT
16: New York Jets (0-13) - OUT
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Playoff Probability

Through Week 14
Colts Beat Houston
Colts Lose to Houston
Tennessee Loses to Detroit
Tennessee Beats Detroit
Miami Loses to New England
Miami Beats New England
No other game effects the Colts odds by more than 1%. However, remember that percentages are just fractions. Don't treat the +/- numbers as the actual value of each game. The Dolphins losing to the Patriots, and moving our odds from 90 to 95% is huge! It actually doubles our odds of making the playoffs (9/10 vs 19/20). This is why those numbers look like they do a lot less than, for example, the Titans losing to the Lions giving us a 35-point boost. The closer you are to 0 or 100, the easier it is to move the other direction.
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Colts Scenarios

3-0

2-1

1-2

0-3

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Week 15 Rooting Guide

Games are in reverse order of importance. If you don't want to waste your time, skip the first half.

Eagles @ Cardinals

Root For: Cardinals
Importance Rating: 1/100
Hmm, maybe the Eagles losing will help them pass the Texans in the tank race. Of course, the Dolphins own that pick, but they could be a team rival in the future, so we'd probably prefer them to draft lower if possible. Ironically, the Eagles winning could also hurt Miami in draft position for their normal first-round draft pick.

Bears @ Vikings

Root For: Bears
Importance Rating: 1/100
The Vikings have a slightly harder schedule for the last two, so I suppose they're more likely to lose these. They can try to pass up Denver, an AFC team, in the tank race.

Seahawks @ Football Team

Root For: Seahawks
Importance Rating: 1/100
The Colts and Jets (from Seahawks) will draft at around the same time as of now. If the Colts get out in the same round as Seattle, let's hope the latter has a better record so they get the Colts get a spot higher.

Panthers @ Packers

Root For: Packers
Importance Rating: 1/100
Strength of victory doesn't matter for the Colts this year. But if the Packers keep winning, that means they're better...which means the Colts are better since we beat them. Logic.

Buccaneers @ Falcons

Root For: Falcons
Importance Rating: 2/100
Fuck Tom Brady.

49ers @ Cowboys

Root For: 49ers
Importance Rating: 3/100
Hey Dak, do you see how bad the Cowboys are without you? They'll be 4-10 after this one. Maybe you should head to a team with a great defense, offensive line, and special teams, that is lacking an elite quarterback.

Chiefs @ Saints

Root For: Saints
Importance Rating: 7
The Chiefs will almost certainly lock up the bye in the coming weeks. Let's not give them extra time to rest before they play in the divisional round. There's a very good chance their opponent could be the Colts.

Steelers @ Bengals

Root For: Bengals
Importance Rating: 16
The Colts could still pass the Steelers. This could have implications in seeding the 1-4 teams, or the 5-7 teams.

Bills @ Broncos

Root For: Broncos
Importance Rating: 16
The Bills are only 1 game ahead of us, but they have clinched the tiebreaker.

Jets @ Rams

Root For: Rams
Importance Rating: 19
I don't usually like thinking about the next season when Indy is still in contention, but I'm really not feeling like I want to play Trevor Lawrence twice a year.

Chargers @ Raiders

Root For: Chargers
Importance Rating: 34
The Colts only care about the Raiders if they go 1-2 in the last 3. But it's better to be safe than sorry.

Browns @ Giants

Root For: Giants
Importance Rating: 45
Cleveland is now tied with us. They get the Jets after this, but face Pittsburgh in their regular season finale. They're a team we could pass in the standings realistically.

Jaguars @ Ravens

Root For: Jaguars
Importance Rating: 53
This would virtually end two possibilities: The Ravens getting a higher seed than the Colts, and the Jaguars drafting #1 overall.

Patriots @ Dolphins

Root For: Patriots
Importance Rating: 61
The Dolphins are the most important team in the wildcard race for us. They aren't as likely to pass us up as Baltimore. But we can afford one team passing us, and not two. Miami is just a game back, and owns the tiebreaker.

Lions @ Titans

Root For: Lions
Importance Rating: 64
This would be huge for the Colts' division chances. Even though it doesn't help as much for overall playoff chances as the Dolphins game, I think we're in a good enough spot that we can think about getting a home game in January.

Texans @ Colts

Root For: Colts
Importance Rating: 85
Leg 3 of this 5-game winning streak to end the season.
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Tiebreakers

Head-to-Head

Conference Record

The Colts are currently 5-4. The best they can do is 8-4. They can never win by conference record this season since the 4 NFC games all count as wins.

Strength of Victory

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How would you rank these teams? 2020 Colts, 2018 Colts, 2014 Colts
submitted by Andy_and_Vic to Colts [link] [comments]

Colts Playoff Scenarios + Probability: Week 13

AFC PLAYOFF HUNT (538 PLAYOFF PROBABILITY)

  1. 11-0 Pittsburgh Steelers (>99%)
  2. 10-1 Kansas City Chiefs (>99%)
  3. 8-3 Tennessee Titans (97%) Head-to-Head Over Buffalo (Guaranteed)
  4. 8-3 Buffalo Bills (93%)
  5. 8-3 Cleveland Browns (79%)
  6. 7-4 Miami Dolphins (48%) Conference Record over Indianapolis (Guaranteed)
  7. 7-4 Indianapolis Colts (55%)
  8. 6-5 Las Vegas Raiders (45%) Conference Record over Baltimore (Very Likely)
  9. 6-5 Baltimore Ravens (68%)
  10. 5-6 New England Patriots (13%)
  11. 4-7 Denver Broncos (<1%) Conference Record over Houston (Currently)
  12. 4-7 Houston Texans (2%)
  13. 3-8 Los Angeles Chargers (<1%)
  14. 2-8-1 Cincinnati Bengals (<1%)
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

COLTS PROBABILITY

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________

MOST HELPFUL POSSIBLE WEEK 14 OUTCOMES

  1. Ravens lose vs. Cowboys (Odds Increase to 61%)
  2. Raiders to lose @ Jets (Odds Increase to 61%)
  3. Dolphins lose vs. Bengals (Odds Increase to 60%)
No other games can help the Colts by more than 1% playoff probability.
Interesting Note: The Browns / Titans game has almost no affect on Indy's playoff odds. Both results help them nearly equally. Personally, I'm rooting for Tennessee.
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________

TIEBREAKING SCENARIOS

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________

REMAINING SCHEDULE SCENARIOS

This doesn't have every scenario, just the best and worst cases, as well as some other likely or interesting ones.

5-0

4-1

3-2

2-3

1-4

0-5

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________

MOST REALISTIC PATHS TO THE POSTSEASON

7 Seed

10-6:

Note: The interesting about this is that the Raiders and Dolphins play Week 16. The Colts would be guaranteed to beat the Raiders if they lose, and very likely to beat the Dolphins if they lose.

11-5:

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________

6-Seed

Note: The 6-seed looks like it will be very beneficial this year, as the 7 will have to travel to either Kansas City or Pittsburgh in the wildcard round.

10-6:

11-5:

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________

5-Seed

11-5:

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Don't panic. We got this.
submitted by Andy_and_Vic to Colts [link] [comments]

Game Matchups Preview #10: Bills @ Cardinals

Before every Bills’ game I spend some time, probably too much time, digging into how the Bills roster stacks up against their opponent’s. While doing this I specifically look at 5 matchups; Bills’ Pass Offense vs. Opponent’s Pass Defense, Bills’ Rush Offense vs. Opponent’s Rush Defense, Bills’ Pass Defense vs. Opponent’s Pass Offense, Bills’ Rush Defense vs. Opponent’s Rush Offense, Bills’ Special Teams vs. Opponent’s Special Teams. After doing all of this I try to come up with reasons “Why We Will Lose” and “Why We Will Win” ultimately leading to a prediction. Below I present 2020’s 10th iteration of this analysis for the Bills upcoming game at the Cardinals. Included is a scale to rank the advantage in each matchup from 👏👏👏👏👏 (Massive Advantage) to 👏 (Minimal Advantage).
Bills’ Passing Offense vs. Cardinals’ Passing Defense
Josh Allen is dominating this season. Through 9 games he has 2828 yards, 24 TDs, 68.9 Cmp %, and just 9 turnovers. And to be honest, he hasn’t broken math, he just simply has gotten better. Each game you see something else, one week its pocket presence, the next it’s vision, then it’s pre-snap adjustments, basically every week he adds a new wrinkle to a fold to the point where he is inarguably a top 5 QB in the NFL, at least in 2020. Bills fans have clamored for a franchise QB since Jim Kelly, and for the first time they can say “We got our guy”.
And this week “Our guy” goes up against a defense which ranks 10th in the NFL in Passer Rating against. For context, only the Dolphins rank higher (#8) making this one of the more difficult pass defenses Allen and the Bills have faced in 2020. The Cardinals have accomplished this mainly due to 2 studs in their secondary, Patrick Peterson (CB) and Budda Baker (S). Peterson is in the 10th season of a career where he has made the Pro Bowl 8 times and been named an All-Pro 3 times. A lockdown corner who has consistently shut down opposing #1s, Peterson will likely shade Diggs and should be an incredible matchup to watch Sunday. Then there is Budda Baker, who is a Darkhorse for DPOY. With a similar playstyle to Jordan Poyer, Baker is a safety that is everywhere and anywhere making plays on balls in the air or players in the backfield. As dominant a safety as you will see in the NFL in 2020 Baker is a more complete version of Jamal Adams capable of wreaking havoc at every level.
But I’m not too worried about the coverages that the Cardinals will throw at the Bills however, I am weary of their blitzing. The Cardinals blitz 40% (#5) of the time which is a bit misleading because they play a 3-4 but is still something to monitor. Haason Reddick is their primary blitzer blitzing 15% of his snaps, getting home 5 times for 5 sacks. The Bills will need to account for this unique blitz set and should get a boost there by the return of Mitch Morse (C). Assuming Morse comes back the Bills, for the first time, could have their #1 OL unit on the field. It’s going to be an offensive battle this week so anything will help but regardless of what is on the field, the Bills should take this matchup.
EDGE: Bills 👏 👏 👏
Bills’ Rushing Offense vs. Cardinals’ Rushing Defense
The Bills HAD to rush against the Patriots and didn’t NEED to rush against the Seahawks. 38 rushes for 190 yards against the Patriots turned into 19 for 34 yards against the Seahawks. The stats were not pretty but perfectly encapsulate the Bills’ gameplan against the Seahawks, pass, then pass again, and pass some more. Still the most interesting thing to come from this game was the split between Singletary and Moss. Moss played 56% of the snaps, to Singletary’s 46%, and had 9 rushes to Singletary’s 2. I honestly don’t know what to make of this spread but still believe this will be a 50/50 share moving forward making it a clear Sigfried & Roy situation instead of a Penn & Teller.
But if the Bills WANT to run this week, they should find some lanes. The Cardinals currently rank 25th in Y/A at 4.6, exposed by how much they blitz. I’ve talked about this in past posts that blitzing is a live by and die by mentality. If the blitz hits home a team is golden but if it misses you leave open lanes with 2nd level OL able to break large chunks. The Seahawks game is a great example of this as they were able to put up 200 yards on the ground against this Cardinals’ defense, led by their QB, Russel Wilson, who had 84. Blitzing teams often struggle against mobile QBs because it exposes them to rollouts in the event the blitz misses and while Josh Allen has not run as much this year, we all know he is still one of the premier ground threats in the NFL.
But if Allen isn’t moving with his legs this week, more than last, the Bills will need something from their RBs. And these RBs will run into an old friend in Jordan Phillips who mans the interior of this DL. Phillips frankly is having a mediocre season with only 10 tackles, 2 sacks, and 1 TFL through 8 games but as all Bills’ fans know embraces the “revenge” game as a chance to make his presence known. Still the Bills will need to rely on the interior of their OL to push back Phillips and Corey Peters (DT) to give their RBs space to run. If the Bills can move the ball consistently on the ground, you will see them put up a big score again this week.
EDGE: Bills 👏
Bills’ Passing Defense vs. Cardinals’ Passing Offense
It is an odd thing to say that your pass defense played incredibly well when they gave up 362 yards through the air, but that’s what I am going to say. MVP front runner Russel Wilson has had a sub 100 passer rating just 2 times this season and the Bills are one of them holding him to a rating of 94.6. There were 3 major causes of this. 1 – Tre White balled out, often shadowing DK Metcalf, giving up a passer rating of just 36.9 while having an interception. 2 – Jordan Poyer continued his dominant season with an interception and 10 tackles, he is on All-Pro watch by the way. 3 – The pass rush was great and constantly pressured Wilson to throw early. While one player deserved shade for most of the season, he doesn’t this week. A.J. Klein was the Defensive Player of the Week regardless of what the NFL says and made a MASSIVE impact this game. Give that man kudos.
And now the Bills go from MVP frontrunner to MVP Darkhorse in matchup with Kyler Murray. Murray is having an exceptional second season already with 2600+ yards and 27 TDs, in just 8 games, the 5’10” Murray is proving why the Cardinals selected him #1 overall in 2019. It also does not hurt that Murray has a three-headed monster at WR that rivals even the Bills trio. Larry Fitzgerald is still hauling in passes at the end of his career continuing to prove why he will be considered a top 5 WR all time. Deep Threat, Christian Kirk, is coming on as of late with 75+ receiving yards in 3 out of his past 4 games. Last is the star of the group, DeAndre Hopkins who I could argue is the most complete WR I have ever seen play football. Combining a physique built to play WR, the instincts & vision of a tactician, and pure talent few possess Hopkins has the ability to turn bad QBs good and good QBs great.
And Hopkins will be ½ of the best matchup of this game, Hopkins vs. Tre White. In the past 2 games where these 2 have been on the field Hopkins has racked up 153 yards, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. In the 2019 Wildcard game Tre White held Hopkins to just 29 yards going into the 4th quarter and in their 2018 regular season matchup held him to just 39 yards in the first 3 quarters. This is an interesting trend which may continue Sunday where Tre gets the better of Hopkins through 3 and Hopkins breaks through in crunch time. A cause for concern, if Micah Hyde is unable to go the over the top coverage will be weakened forcing Tre to play tighter than normal on arguably the best WR in the game.
EDGE: Cardinals 👏 👏 👏
Bills’ Rushing Defense vs. Cardinals’ Rushing Offense
Bills fans love to talk about comebacks so how about another one. I have been very critical of Tremaine Edmunds through the first half of the season, rightfully so, but his game against Seattle may be the start of something. While I’m not willing to call it a “comeback” just yet I am excited to see what he can do the remainder of the season. The 3rd year LB was all over the field racking up 11 tackles, 1 sack, and 2 TFLs. Edmunds seemed to be dissecting plays much faster and hitting the correct gap quickly allowing him to be a force over the middle. This week he will likely be in a similar role as last, spying Murray on pass plays, and moving forward on runs.
The Cardinals use a 2/3 split at RB with ex-Dolphin, Kenyan Drake, taking 66% of the carries and 3rd year RB Chase Edmunds taking the other 33%. Drake, a highly agile back can make multiple cuts and force defenders to miss. Often used in zone reads the threat Kyler Murray poses with his legs allows Drake to often get free and be 1 on 1 with opposing DBs. When this happens, Drake has consistently been able to gain big yardage. As for Chase Edmunds, while he is primarily a receiving back, he is a solid runner of the football. What stood out to me most watching Edmunds tape is just how good he is at breaking arm tackles. On nearly every play I watched when one defender got just an arm on Edmunds, he was either able to completely break it or fall forward for 3-4 more yards.
Still, as I alluded to, the key on the ground here is not the RBs but instead Kyler Murray. Behind an average at best OL, headlined by LT D.J. Humphries, Murray is often forced to scramble and when doing so has been deadly. Right now, Murray leads the NFL with 7.1 Y/A and is on pace to exceed 1000 yards on the ground. He has a unique ability to make defenders miss with top end speed to break away once getting to the open field. Edmunds will generally be tasked with the spy here but, as is tradition, Bills DEs must play contain. This is a game the Bills would love to have Matt Milano back for but since that can’t happen expect the Bills to almost exclusively play Big Nickel to ramp up the speed on the field in an effort to contain Murray.
EDGE: Cardinals 👏 👏 👏
Bills’ Special Teams vs. Cardinals’ Special Teams
Andre Roberts’ started the Bills Seahawks game with a 60-yard return, oh so close to proving my prediction right and scoring a TD. Roberts is the best return man in the NFL in 2020 and while he hasn’t put a TD on the board his ability to flip the field has been a weapon for Buffalo all season. Another weapon for Buffalo has been their punter, Corey Bojorquez, who is averaging just 2.3 punts per game but is averaging nearly 50 yards per punt. Then there is Tyler Bass who kicked 9 times against the Seahawks and made 8 of them, his only miss? A 61-yard field goal attempt. Live or Die by the Bass I say, but he has been thumping as of late.
The Cardinals use different players a KR and PR. At KR is RB Chase Edmunds who is averaging just 23 Y/R with a long of 42 on the season while WR Christian Kirk is handling PR duties with a long of 10 and a Y/R of just 2.8. Make no mistake, regardless of these players recent struggles they both have top end speed and if the opportunity arises could do damage. Punting for the Cardinals is Andy Lee who is having an awful season with a Y/P of just 43.9, net Y/P of 39.6, and an I20 % of just 13.8 (Bojo’s is 42.9). Last at kicker is Zane Gonzalez, who is 11/15 for FGs and 27/28 for XPs. With more misses under 50 yards (#3) than over 50 yards (#2) Gonzalez has been a liability for the Cardinals thus far in 2020.
EDGE: Bills 👏 👏 👏
Why We Will Lose
I’d liken the challenge of stopping Murray in 2020 to the challenge of stopping Lamar Jackson in 2019, with one caveat, Murray is a better passer. While the Bills bailed out against the Ravens last year to stop the run, and for the most part held Lamar Jackson in check, they can’t do the same against the Cardinals. Yes, Murray will run the ball and likely pick up big yardage from time to time, but it is his passing ability that will set him apart and he should be able to slice up a secondary which has struggled through 2020. Hopkins will be the focus of the Bills but if they lose over the top protection Murray has shown an affinity to hit the deep ball to Christian Kirk. This could be a long day for Buffalo and a great day for Kyler.
On defense the Cardinals have ball hawks throughout their secondary and big hitters up front. As Bills’ fans saw against the Titans & Chiefs turnovers can be the deciding factor in games, and that could be just what happens here. Budda Baker and Patrick Peterson will both challenge WRs for the ball, but it is the pressure on Allen that has me worried. Reddick will come at Allen on a unique set of blitzes and if able to reach the Bills’ QB will be coached to rip the ball out. At the end of the day though it is the ex-Bill that has me most worried. Jordan Phillips has something to prove here, he wants to prove the Bills should have paid him, and the best way to do that is to wreck this game and push the Bills to 7-3.
Why We Will Win
At this point in the season the MVP order is likely 1 – Aaron Rodgers, 2 – Patrick Mahomes, 3A – Russel Wilson, 3B – Josh Allen. Allen has been the entire Bills’ offense and is finding ways to get everyone of his receivers the ball. Stefon Diggs will challenge an older Patrick Peterson in a fun matchup to watch, John Brown will force an Over Bracket Coverage and should find some success down field, and Cole Beasley will continue to do what he does best and be that pressure release valve for Josh Allen. Sure, the run game could get going but at the end of the day this is Josh Allen’s world and we are all just living in it.
On defense the Bills may finally be jelling as they held the Russel Wilson led Seahawks in check. Success in that game came from the Bills’ stars; Tre White, Jordan Poyer, & Tremaine Edmunds, and from their role players, like A.J. Klein. With this defense slowly rounding back into form they can be expected to get better and better every week. Bad news for the Cardinals because if this Bills’ defense can be 75% of what they were in 2019 the Cardinals may just be running into one of, if not the, most complete team in the entire NFL.
Prediction: Bills 34 – Cardinals 31
As I write this Vegas has the Cardinals at -2.5 which makes this a pick’em (Home field is basically an auto -3). I was wrong last week in picking the Bills to lose and the crow I had to eat was delicious, I won’t be wrong this week. The Bills’ offense is most dangerous when they are spread out into 4 WR threats where Josh Allen is one of the most imposing figures in the NFL. I expect him to have another big game in this shootout and then fully expect talking heads like Nick Wright to say something along the lines of “Well it was just the Cardinals, do it against a team like the Steelers.” The Bills leave the desert 8-2 and get some much deserved rest heading into their bye week.
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Standings if NFL games this season only counted the SECOND half.

Rules: Only the second half points are counted. OT is not counted except if the teams are tied (e.g. in a 14-14 tie, the OT period would be used as a tiebreaker, essentially meaning the teams have to end both halves tied for OT to be counted). This is a follow-up to my previous post yesterday about first half records.
​
Team Current Record Hypothetical Record
AFC East
New England Patriots 4-6 6-4
Miami Dolphins 6-4 4-5-1
Buffalo Bills 7-3 3-7
New York Jets 0-10 2-8
AFC North
Pittsburgh Steelers 10-0 8-2
Baltimore Ravens 6-4 6-4
Cincinnati Bengals 2-7-1 4-6
Cleveland Browns 7-3 2-7-1
AFC South
Indianapolis Colts 7-3 7-3
Tennessee Titans 7-3 5-5
Houston Texans 3-7 4-5-1
Jacksonville Jaguars 1-9 4-6
AFC West
Kansas City Chiefs 9-1 8-2
Denver Broncos 4-6 5-5
Las Vegas Raiders 6-4 5-5
Los Angeles Chargers 3-7 4-6
NFC East
Washington 4-7 8-3
Philadelphia Eagles 3-6-1 5-5
Dallas Cowboys 3-8 4-7
New York Giants 3-7 3-7
NFC North
Chicago Bears 5-5 6-3-1
Minnesota Vikings 4-6 5-5
Detroit Lions 4-7 3-8
Green Bay Packers 7-3 2-8
NFC South
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7-4 7-2-2
New Orleans Saints 8-2 5-5
Atlanta Falcons 3-7 3-7
Carolina Panthers 4-7 3-8
NFC West
Los Angeles Rams 7-3 9-0-1
Arizona Cardinals 6-4 9-1
Seattle Seahawks 7-3 5-4-1
San Francisco 49ers 4-6 3-6-1
Notes:
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